German victory at the Battle of Britain

As pointed out by others is it possible for the LW to win the BoB, as in achieve some kind of limited air superiority over southern England for a few months in 1940? Yeah it's possible not easy but possible I guess, the British will have to lose some advantages be worse all round, and the LW will have to better all round.

But as pointed out that does't mean much in the long term. Germany won't be able to maintain this long term and they can't force Britain out of the war by doing so either. You can only force Britain out the war with an invasion and that way lies sealion and madness.
 
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The operational goal of the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain was to achieve air supremacy sufficient to enable Operation Sealion to take place. If they do not achieve that, they have by definition not won. The matter is therefore whether that operational goal was achievable.
 
The operational goal of the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain was to achieve air supremacy sufficient to enable Operation Sealion to take place. If they do not achieve that, they have by definition not won. The matter is therefore whether that operational goal was achievable.
Quite, and since sealion isn't achievable even if the LW win the BoB with the forces they have then I guess by that standard of sucess either wining the BoB isn't possible or just moot.

In order for the BoB to be won to the standard it allows sealion to succeed then the LW would have to achieve enough air dominance to not only beat the RAF, but also the RN and support the Sealion as it putters back and forth across the channel with it's collection of pedalos* and rubber dinghy's* (so the LW will also have to be fishing all those capsized soldiers out of the channel as well).

(and I feel we're getting dangerously close to a sealion thread now)



*slight exaggeration but not by much in the contest of large scale amphibious assaults launching invasions of entire industrialised countries
 
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Quite, and since sealion isn't achievable even if the LW win the BoB with forces they have then I guess by that standard of sucess either wining the BoB isn't possible or just Moot.

I order for the BoB to be won to the standard it allows sealion to happen the LW would have to achieve enough air dominance to not only beat the RAF, but also the RN and support the Sealion as it putters back and forth across the channel with it's collection of pedalos* and rubber dinghy's* (so the LW will also have to be fishing all this capsized soldiers out of the channel as well).

(and I feel we're getting dangerously close to a sealion thread now)



*slight exaggeration but not by much in the contest of large scale amphibious assaults launching invasions of entire industrialised countries
For it is written that and BoB thread shall morph seamlessly into a Sealion thread, and you get extra points if you can work German carriers in there as well.
 
Soon someone will mention the Isle of Wightand you know that things will go downhill fast. Oh, I just did.

I'll get my coat .....

:)
Ah, the days of apeshit crazy bizarre scenarios which would make the likes of David Eicke think it was too weird.

I kind of miss those days where AH doubled for care in the community.
 

Geon

Donor
Lest we forget, Goering came disturbingly close to winning the Battle of Britain as it was. The Luftwaffe was slowly wearing down the RAF by simple attrition. Every source I have read indicates the RAF was literally operating as the old song says "on a wing and a prayer." By the time of the Blitz phase of the Battle there were no reserves left. You had exhausted RAF pilots who were asked to sortie as much as 30 times or more per day, exhausted ground crews, and an air defense system pushed to the limit. All Goering had to do was to continue hammering the air fields and radar stations and he would have been able to temporarily drive the British from the skies of southern England. Of course, this would have ultimately accomplished nothing given the disaster in the making that was Sealion.

However...it occurs to me that if it was Lord Halifax and not Churchill in the Prime Minister's seat there is a reasonable chance that if the Battle of Britain had succeeded in temporarily giving the Luftwaffe air superiority then at this point Halifax might have decided to talk peace terms with Hitler. His reasoning would likely have been - better to deal with Hitler and save what can be saved now then be invaded and forced like the French into whatever settlement the Germans decide on. Remember, we in the present have the blessing of hindsight so that we know how Sealion was doomed to failure. The British did not know this. They only knew they had an army that was still recovering from Dunkirk and that a large force was massing for an invasion in France and Holland. Given Halifax' mindset at the time I could see him capitulate thinking he could "save Britain" by doing so.

One other thing, Monday is Memorial Day for us in the USA. But at this time I want to say a very big

THANK YOU!!!

to those who served in the RAF - the few to whom Britain and the whole world owes so much. Thank you for your courage and your determination. May you always be remembered with honor.
 

Geon

Donor
The Isle of Wight would definitely have been the best place to launch Operation Sealion. They need the excitement.
I saw something recently that made me wonder about that. The Germans literally fortified the daylights out of the Channel Island of Guernsey in 1942. They had underground shelters, tunnels, sophisticated fortifications, the works...I wonder if Hitler wasn't thinking along the lines of using Guernsey and the other Channel Islands as a staging area.

Uhm…:hushedface: Whoops!!! Please don't let's go off on this and stay on the subject at hand...
 
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[/QUOTE]
I saw something recently that made me wonder about that. The Germans literally fortified the daylights out of the Channel Island of Guernsey in 1942. They had underground shelters, tunnels, sophisticated fortifications, the works...I wonder if Hitler wasn't thinking along the lines of using Guernsey and the other Channel Islands as a staging area.
You are a brave man.
 
(and I feel we're getting dangerously close to a sealion thread now)
Oh we crossed that line back on page 1.
For it is written that and BoB thread shall morph seamlessly into a Sealion thread, and you get extra points if you can work German carriers in there as well.
Ibid.
I saw something recently that made me wonder about that. The Germans literally fortified the daylights out of the Channel Island of Guernsey in 1942. They had underground shelters, tunnels, sophisticated fortifications, the works...I wonder if Hitler wasn't thinking along the lines of using Guernsey and the other Channel Islands as a staging area.
The Berlin maniac was "the world's second greatest military genius" so of course that CKFCP*1 might seem reasonable to him.

^1
1590071365649.png
 
Lest we forget, Goering came disturbingly close to winning the Battle of Britain as it was. The Luftwaffe was slowly wearing down the RAF by simple attrition. Every source I have read indicates the RAF was literally operating as the old song says "on a wing and a prayer." By the time of the Blitz phase of the Battle there were no reserves left. You had exhausted RAF pilots who were asked to sortie as much as 30 times or more per day, exhausted ground crews, and an air defense system pushed to the limit. All Goering had to do was to continue hammering the air fields and radar stations and he would have been able to temporarily drive the British from the skies of southern England. Of course, this would have ultimately accomplished nothing given the disaster in the making that was Sealion.

However...it occurs to me that if it was Lord Halifax and not Churchill in the Prime Minister's seat there is a reasonable chance that if the Battle of Britain had succeeded in temporarily giving the Luftwaffe air superiority then at this point Halifax might have decided to talk peace terms with Hitler. His reasoning would likely have been - better to deal with Hitler and save what can be saved now then be invaded and forced like the French into whatever settlement the Germans decide on. Remember, we in the present have the blessing of hindsight so that we know how Sealion was doomed to failure. The British did not know this. They only knew they had an army that was still recovering from Dunkirk and that a large force was massing for an invasion in France and Holland. Given Halifax' mindset at the time I could see him capitulate thinking he could "save Britain" by doing so.

One other thing, Monday is Memorial Day for us in the USA. But at this time I want to say a very big

THANK YOU!!!

to those who served in the RAF - the few to whom Britain and the whole world owes so much. Thank you for your courage and your determination. May you always be remembered with honor.
Just.....No. Halifax himself admitted that he couldn't govern from the House of Lords. The "Halifax would seek peace" idea is just incredibly overblown.
 
As Geon said, the Germans would have won the Battle of Britain had they kept up their initial air strategy. Having won air superiority, the Luftwaffe could have counter-acted the Royal Navy's continuing superiority on the seas and this made possible OSL. However, Churchill "trolled" Hitler by bombing Germany and Hitler responded with the Blitz, which allowed the RAF infrastructure to survive.
 
As Geon said, the Germans would have won the Battle of Britain had they kept up their initial air strategy. Having won air superiority, the Luftwaffe could have counter-acted the Royal Navy's continuing superiority on the seas and this made possible OSL. However, Churchill "trolled" Hitler by bombing Germany and Hitler responded with the Blitz, which allowed the RAF infrastructure to survive.
Nope. The RAF being driven to northern bases temporarily doesn't mean that the RAF wouldn't interfere with channel operations. Plus, the BoB was doing large amounts of damage to the Luftwaffe. Any Luftwaffe that drives the RAF north will have little capability to tip the balance in the channel.
 
As for Halifax, the preponderance of the evidence shows he did NOT want to be Prime Minister. He was quite emphatic on that point.

If he had become PM anyway, I am not so sure he would have pushed for a negotiated peace, either. After Kristallnacht, he became considerably more hard-line against German aggression. I suppose his biggest drawback would have been that he could not have rallied the people as effectively as Churchill had with his dramatic oratory.
 
Ah, the days of apeshit crazy bizarre scenarios which would make the likes of David Eicke think it was too weird.

I kind of miss those days where AH doubled for care in the community.
I'm sure I can come up with a few apeshit crazy scenarios if you wish. I'm just not sure i can keep a straight face when typing them out.
 
We have literally hundreds (if not thousands) of pages of discussion listing all the reasons Sealion was a non-starter. Seriously, that is just a risible suggestion.
Fair enough, I did a brief search and see you are correct. German commanders did not foresee a successful invasion even if the Luftwaffe achieved air superiority; Churchill did not think it could happen; the large/overwhelming majority of military historians share that view. It seems that at MOST the Germans could have landed a first wave but could not have reinforced it, leading to a quick surrender of whatever German forces managed to land.

Edit: And, given that the British knew this, they would not have had an incentive to seek terms with Germany on this basis.
 
Fair enough, I did a brief search and see you are correct. German commanders did not foresee a successful invasion even if the Luftwaffe achieved air superiority; Churchill did not think it could happen; the large/overwhelming majority of military historians share that view. It seems that at MOST the Germans could have landed a first wave but could not have reinforced it, leading to a quick surrender of whatever German forces managed to land.

Edit: And, given that the British knew this, they would not have had an incentive to seek terms with Germany on this basis.
If my post seemed a little short tempered, it's because normally anyone who suggests that Sealion was possible will double, triple and quadruple down when reality is pointed out to them. A lot of the veterans here are sick of banging their heads against the wall with that sort of idiot.

You, on the other hand, are most definitely NOT an idiot.
 
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