Personally, I think there is some scope to be had in 'A Better Show in 1940', whereby the events as described run along, with the Luftwaffe doing 'better' but not nearly enough and then the Germans NOT attempting the invasion.
I think this is the closest you can get to a German 'win'. It'd be interesting to see the longer term effects of a more weakened RAF during the course of the whole war, and a (presumably) stronger Luftwaffe.
I still think the (European) Axis lose and probably lose there or there abouts in May 1945, perhaps just LATE May of 1945.
Well put. Victory in the air was possible through the eastablishment of many factors.
1) Goering slips in the bathtub and breaks his neck before WWII
2) The Luftwaffe go all out for the radar stations from the get-go
3) Better officers assigned for intel
4) Earlier/better design and deployment of the He-177 (ASB?)
5) Germany's master advocate of strategic bombing doesn't die in a plane crash
6) Forget the "Channel Bombing" strategy
7) Establish a true recon force for the Luftwaffe
8) Maintain the airstrikes on airfields only
9) Keep up the campaign on the RAF even in the face of Berlin being bombed (ASB, but we're talking how to win, not Hitler's lack of impulse control)
10) Turn to aircraft factories only after the RAF pulls north of the Thames
Results: Operational Luftwaffe victory on the same scale that IOTL was enjoyed by the RAF. Question is, when does the Luftwaffe ease up due to the demands of the campaigns of Yugoslavia, Greece, Crete, and Barbarossa?