German-US Cold War after World War One?

Who would win this Cold War?

  • Germany

    Votes: 8 21.6%
  • United States

    Votes: 14 37.8%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 15 40.5%

  • Total voters
    37
Let's say that Germany decides on invading Russia while defending against France or whatever PODs made to get them to defeat France and Russia before 1916, as it needs to be a short war.

Germany now controls the Baltic States and the Ukraine, along with the shattered portions of Austria Hungary. Several German puppet states are erected along with the remains along with whatever countries of Europe that benefit from being on it's side.

Would a German-US cold war inevitably result as German influence over Europe becomes significant?

What would the result of the Middle East be? I know the Ottoman Empire would collapse, but would Turkey be bigger in this timeline? Would they have Armenia and parts of Iraq and Syria? Might the Armenian Genocide be much bigger and possibly extend induced famine?

What happen of Italy? Would they still turn fascist? Would they be allied or against Germany?

What would happen of France? Would they side with Germany or Britain?

Also who would win in this alternate Cold War scenario? I think what makes this interesting for me
 

Germaniac

Donor
Especially if the war is over early i habe serious doubts the Hapsburg and Ottoman empire collapse, prior to the collapse of their institutions later in the war i would argue the majority of people cared much more about who will pay their pensions than nationalism...
 
There wouldn't be a cold war, as the US went back to isolationism at the time and was mainly concerned with the Americas and the Pacific. "Generic" reactionary monarchy also isn't as alarming as fascism or communism.

I agree.

If the war ended in 1916 the US wouldn't engage with Europe, it would be busy with Mexico including mobilisation of the newly reformed but staggeringly undereqipped National Guard.
 

Deleted member 97083

I agree.

If the war ended in 1916 the US wouldn't engage with Europe, it would be busy with Mexico including mobilisation of the newly reformed but staggeringly undereqipped National Guard.
I wonder if, contrary to a Cold War, the German Empire's formation of Mitteleuropa would "inspire" the US in their own push of imperialism into Central America, taking it from a series of corporate expansions to formalized puppet states.

In addition, the US and German Empire both have non-overlapping claims in the Pacific which are both threatened by Japan.
 
Germany has half the vote in this, and a desire in the business community to expand in American markets. The enforcement on the Monroe Doctrine from the 1890s was the US reaction to growing European business penetration into Latin American and efforts at colonial precursor actions. Germany was part of that, so a victorious Germany could very well be acting pushy on United Fruits turf.
 
I don't see US-German Cold War beginning with CP victory. Why USA would care about Europe anymore? More plausible is French-German Cold War.
 
Germany post world war 1 has some serious weakness's.

They now have a whole bunch of non germans who are bitter about being ruled by germans, they have Russia looking for revenge after they recover. They have a sickly ally at best to the south. A reoganizing empire thats a issue in and of itself, and still has to project power past england and france to affect america.

America by contrast has more resources, less points of conflict and is more secure, they can distabalise the german empire by arming various nationalist movements, helping russia, or doing business with the british empire. A cold war favors the US.
 

longsword14

Banned
Germany post world war 1 has some serious weakness's.

They now have a whole bunch of non germans who are bitter about being ruled by germans, they have Russia looking for revenge after they recover. They have a sickly ally at best to the south. A reoganizing empire thats a issue in and of itself, and still has to project power past england and france to affect america.

America by contrast has more resources, less points of conflict and is more secure, they can distabalise the german empire by arming various nationalist movements, helping russia, or doing business with the british empire. A cold war favors the US.
What ?
Germany was never going to rule by fiat or even rule most of the newly formed countries by itself. It is far easier to puppetise them to an extent and bind them to a single trading bloc subservient to German interests.
Why do you imagine Germany will try and project power to N. America?
Destabilise which countries again? The countries that exist because Germany broke the Russian Empire up ? Why would anybody even be interested in a capable insurgency?
Any attempt to do so might also result in it being crushed by the same people who fought the bloodiest war in history. They would not have any compulsions about stamping out resistance.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
After a CP-victory in 1916 there simply wouldn't be any US-German Cold war for the forseeable future.
...
Only a "maybe" in the late 30ies/40ies if you butterfly a damn awfull lot in the US. But even for that you would need a lot of butterflies flapping a very certain way.
 
With Russian raw materials via Brest-Litovsk as well as access to Middle Eastern oil, this Germany has other areas of focus that will likely draw her away from America's. Other than business competition, which was happening pre-war, there is no reason for a conflict to emerge unless the US suddenly becomes interested in Africa or colonial adventures in Asia. Now a cold war between Germany and the UK, that I can see with German meddling in the Middle East and Asia as well as the naval threat.
 
MittelEuropa wasn't big enough to compensate for a loss of international trade, the German war aims were consistent on the point that the losers must accept the ME without erecting punitive trade barriers around the world. As such the Germans will court the US in order to gain access to their market and markets where they have a lot of influence. If any Cold War occurs it will be due to a trade war and most likely be with Britain.
 
What ?
Germany was never going to rule by fiat or even rule most of the newly formed countries by itself. It is far easier to puppetise them to an extent and bind them to a single trading bloc subservient to German interests.
Why do you imagine Germany will try and project power to N. America?
Destabilise which countries again? The countries that exist because Germany broke the Russian Empire up ? Why would anybody even be interested in a capable insurgency?
Any attempt to do so might also result in it being crushed by the same people who fought the bloodiest war in history. They would not have any compulsions about stamping out resistance.
The only problems I see them having are with the poles, mostly because Germany didn't really know what it was going to do with them, it didn't want to give up any of its territory but it also didn't want to take all those poles into Germany directly
 

longsword14

Banned
The only problems I see them having are with the poles, mostly because Germany didn't really know what it was going to do with them, it didn't want to give up any of its territory but it also didn't want to take all those poles into Germany directly
Yes, but Poland was partitioned in such a manner that the most of it went to Russia, a resurrected kingdom will take those bits and some others instead. What I found odd was the poster thought that supplying a few rifles would be capable of creating an insurgency. The Poles have a lot to loose by doing so, and unlike neo-colonial wars a German Army right next to the Poles will easily put down any uprising.
 
The entire concept of Germany being able to match tit for tat with United States is hard to believe, given basic industrial output but I think there are two concepts that are necessary to achieve this. German domination of Mitteleuropa ( Central and Eastern Europe) and the establishment of Mittelafrika, which would allot the Germans not only increased presence of industry, but the ability to control the raw materials to supply that industry.
 
Yes, but Poland was partitioned in such a manner that the most of it went to Russia, a resurrected kingdom will take those bits and some others instead. What I found odd was the poster thought that supplying a few rifles would be capable of creating an insurgency. The Poles have a lot to loose by doing so, and unlike neo-colonial wars a German Army right next to the Poles will easily put down any uprising.
While true, poznan was culturally important to the poles, which makes them unreliable at best, I'm not implying that it was something the Germans couldn't handle but it could develop into a pain the neck, the others this isn't the case, Lithuania and Ukraine could become very loyal allies indeed actually
 
I don't see US-German Cold War beginning with CP victory. Why USA would care about Europe anymore? More plausible is French-German Cold War.

In which the Germans would most likely win as they have the bigger hold on Europe, will loot so much of France's industry that they will have to give up some colonies to get themselves back in economic shape, along with having less resources since they don't have access to Russia's resources unlike Germany.

After a CP-victory in 1916 there simply wouldn't be any US-German Cold war for the forseeable future.
...
Only a "maybe" in the late 30ies/40ies if you butterfly a damn awfull lot in the US. But even for that you would need a lot of butterflies flapping a very certain way.

If Germany gets the atom bomb first, which is very likely considering their resources at disposal, along with retaining the best scientists, this could be trouble for the US.

The entire concept of Germany being able to match tit for tat with United States is hard to believe, given basic industrial output but I think there are two concepts that are necessary to achieve this. German domination of Mitteleuropa ( Central and Eastern Europe) and the establishment of Mittelafrika, which would allot the Germans not only increased presence of industry, but the ability to control the raw materials to supply that industry.

Oh they will be able to do so. The US not being involved in the war, removes much experience at being involved in war and puts them behind in some development of war footing, while the Germans will have experience and will develop weapons and industry to go against France (whatever remains of them) and Great Britian, the only great power in Europe with some influence and no damage done to them.

Also remember, this is World War One USA not World War Two, they still havent discovered most of their oil fields, and by the time they do, Germany will have control of the Ukraine to have a suitable breadbasket for themselves and Turkey will control Armenia which will have Baku, and there is a chance that oil in Iraq and Saudi Arabia will be discovered, which means the Germans after two decades of development, will have a sizable industry to colonize Russia and portions of Africa and actually be in position to overtake the economic competition with the US by the 60s.
 
Last edited:
MittelEuropa wasn't big enough to compensate for a loss of international trade, the German war aims were consistent on the point that the losers must accept the ME without erecting punitive trade barriers around the world. As such the Germans will court the US in order to gain access to their market and markets where they have a lot of influence. If any Cold War occurs it will be due to a trade war and most likely be with Britain.

It may be for around for the first decade, but after that, they certainly can compensate for that. Especially after oil is discovered in the Middle East by Turkey.
 
There wouldn't be a cold war, as the US went back to isolationism at the time and was mainly concerned with the Americas and the Pacific. "Generic" reactionary monarchy also isn't as alarming to status quo as fascism or communism.

So then what would think would happen in the 1930s/40s in this ATL scenario?
 
Top