German/Turkish Alliance in the Russo-Turkish War (1877–1878)

Eurofed

Banned
The basic, big problem with this strategy is that Germany already tried the Austro-Turkish alliance in OTL, and it badly failed in its time of trial. To be safe, Germany absolutely needs to pull either Britain or Russia in its alliance system (which shall also make Italy a reliable ally, a much less indispensable but still quite useful boon).

If Germany and Russia keep behaving like OTL, Anglo-Russian antagonism shall evolve in an anti-German alliance of convenience. To try and make Britain an ally, Germany needs to pull all stops and pay all prices to appease British fears of a German continental hegemony, and hope that Russia is sufficiently more aggressive and successful than OTL to make the British keep deeming it the biggest threat to their interests. This might or might not work, but there is no real guarantee that it shall. British paranoia of potential continental hegemons is notoriously difficult to appease for all time.

Alternatively, Germany needs to ditch the Austrians and Ottomans as allies, and make a strategic compact with Russia which is eventually aimed to partition the spoils of the decaying Habsburg and Ottoman empires. This is pretty much guaranteed to work if Germany makes an honest effort at it, and while it shall make Russia grow stronger, Germany shall do so as well (creation of Grossdeutchsland and stuff). Russia may or may not become too much aggressive and demanding for Germany's interests to bear down the line. If it does not, all good. If it does, then it would be much easier for Germany to switch to an alliance of convenience with Britain to contain former ally Russia than to do the opposite, if Russia really starts looking like a serious threat to the European order, given the way British foreign policy works.

To sum it up, OTL German alliance system was not enough to ensure Germany's safety, an alternative strategy that established a solid partnership with either Britain or Russia was needed, and while both alternatives were potentially feasible, the Russian alliance was easier to accomplish and manage.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Therefore, I say, the optimal German strategy since 1877-78 was, while keeping the pretense of the "honest broker" as long as it was useful, to actually support Russia as much as it is needed to make them satisfied with Geman friendship, short of avoiding a general war.

When the League of Three Emperors inevitably collapses due to Austro-Russian antagonism and the alienated Habsburg seek an alliance with France, set up the Triple Alliance with Russia and Italy as main partners, plus Romania and Serbia as minor extras. You just switched a needful, not so strong ally with a much more powerful, just as loyal one that doesn't require so much maintainance in the long term (and you made your other lesser ally much more loyal).

When the Anglo-French-Austro-Ottoman Entente arises sooner than later, bask safe in the reasonable expectation that if and when a general war does happen, unless your and your allies' generals and diplomats pick a monster of an idiot ball, this is a World War you can't lose. Austria in all likelihood shall fold in six months, then the fall of France and Turkey is just a matter of time. Then you and your ally dominate the continent, and there isn't a blasted thing Britain can do about it. And you get to complete your national unification with quite valuable lands.
 
It is a shame the idea of a deterrent alliance against Russia had to wait until 1945 and American leadership. By failing to adopt a containment policy against Russia, Bismarck missed a potential rendezvous with destiny and allowed the slide into the world wars as we knew them.

Had Germany in the early to mid-1870s led a "NATO" with Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire, Russia would have felt betrayed by uppity Berlin, but it would not have gone to war with it. If Bismarck had adopted a "Truman Doctrine" of supporting the Ottoman Empire against Russian-backed "armed minorities" he either would have deterred the sequence of wars that happened in the Balkans over the next 100 years, or ensured that Germany, Vienna and Istabul were all at least on the winning side of any war that did happen.

Bitter Russia makes an alliance with France? Piffle. In any war with Russia over the straits, Britain would be on the side of Russia's enemies. Triple Alliance, plus Ottomans, plus Brits plus maybe Romanians beats a Russia-France combo any time, and deters them from launching aggression most of the time anyway.

Remember, Bismarck's halfway house, followed by Wilhelm's erratic policy, resulted in the worst of all worlds for Germany. I've become more convinced the more I've read of Russian policy and public opinion from the 1870s on that the price of keeping Russia friendly would continually escalate and become too high.
WWI was a result of Austrian agression, not Russian expansionism. Russia was deffinitely on the back foot after the Russo-Japanese war.

All your alliance would have done is encourage Austrian aggression and Turkish attrocities, and force Britain and Russia into each others arms faster than in real life.
 
WWI was a result of Austrian agression, not Russian expansionism. Russia was deffinitely on the back foot after the Russo-Japanese war.

All your alliance would have done is encourage Austrian aggression and Turkish attrocities, and force Britain and Russia into each others arms faster than in real life.
Its much more complicated then that. Due to Serbia's quick growth due to the Balkan wars, Austria-Hungary felt threatened by Serbia, explaining the aggressiveness that was demonstrated by Austria after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. In a scenario where Serbia is hemmed in by a strong Ottoman Empire and Austria, they may feel less threatened. In addition to this, Russia had plenty to gain from seeking war in 1914. The prestige that had been lost fighting the Japanese could be restored in a successful European war, which the Russians reckoned they could pull off over the Austrians.

I am also confused as to how "Turkish atrocities" would be encouraged. Most of these events were not as atrocious as they were portrayed by certain European politicians. Most were attempts to stop ethnic violence in which a few people were killed. There would likely be other cases such as the Bulgarian troubles and the Armenian troubles of 1896, but as long as Russian support of independence movements are hemmed in, and the Ottomans could have enough breathing space to continue with their reforms, large scale atrocities wouldn't really be that much of a problem.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
the problem with this take, Eurofed is......

The basic, big problem with this strategy is that Germany already tried the Austro-Turkish alliance in OTL, and it badly failed in its time of trial. To be safe, Germany absolutely needs to pull either Britain or Russia in its alliance system (which shall also make Italy a reliable ally, a much less indispensable but still quite useful boon).

If Germany and Russia keep behaving like OTL, Anglo-Russian antagonism shall evolve in an anti-German alliance of convenience. To try and make Britain an ally, Germany needs to pull all stops and pay all prices to appease British fears of a German continental hegemony, and hope that Russia is sufficiently more aggressive and successful than OTL to make the British keep deeming it the biggest threat to their interests. This might or might not work, but there is no real guarantee that it shall. British paranoia of potential continental hegemons is notoriously difficult to appease for all time.


....the Germans almost won WWI anyway. If they have Austria-Hungary and intact Ottoman Empire in control of most of the Balkans, and quite possibly a Rumania desperate to hold onto the Danube mouth in southern Bessarabia as allies, then that is probably enough to push the Central Powers over the top into victory, even assuming there is an Anglo-Russian front against Germany by 1914.

And, containment and discouragement of Russian adventures in the Balkans from an early point, the 1870s, will find Britain more favorable to Germany rather than less in its initial decades.
 
....the Germans almost won WWI anyway. If they have Austria-Hungary and intact Ottoman Empire in control of most of the Balkans, and quite possibly a Rumania desperate to hold onto the Danube mouth in southern Bessarabia as allies, then that is probably enough to push the Central Powers over the top into victory, even assuming there is an Anglo-Russian front against Germany by 1914.
Control of the Balkans would not give the Central Powers victory; it is only a side show. Victory could only be achieved by knocking both France and Russia out of the war.
 
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