German Strategy Minus US Intervention

The very first requirement is that the western allies acknowledge the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.
Obviously.

The Germans are ceded Luxembourg and Lorraine. An independent Flanders is recognized and made a German protectorate. This does however leave a truncated Belgium in control of the channel ports including Antwerp. A 100 kilometer demilitarized zone is established and all French fortifications, including Verdun, must be dismantled and razed to the ground. The Germans are granted complete and unobstructed access to this zone for the purpose of inspection until 1968, this includes unlimited observation from the air.
Does this include Belgian Luxembourg? If so it would make the border a bit prettier.

And what of the remainder of Belgium/Wallonia?

100Km from the new Border with France? Does it extend from Pas-de Calais to Franche-Comte?

In Africa the Belgian Congo is ceded to Germany. All German colonies occupied by British and French forces are restored to Germany. In the Middle East French and British forces will withdraw from the territories of the Ottoman Empire and declare they will not support any rebellion or insurrections in those territories. The Central Powers make a similar pledge towards Egypt and India. In exchange for these concessions the German empire makes no further demands in Africa, the Balkans, or the Middle East.
Will this leave that small landlocked French Exclave on the Congo (Middle Congo I think)? Or would that be ceded to Germany with the Belgian Congo? What about all of French Congo?

In the Pacific all colonies occupied by the British or British colonial forces must be restored to Germany. If those colonies occupied by the Empire of Japan are not restored the French concessions in China as well as the colony of Indochina are to be ceded to Germany as compensation.
I emboldened what I think you meant in the context above.

The Western Allies agree to pay reparations of a value of no less than ten billion gold marks over a period of thirty years.
I don't think that they would settle for anything less than twenty billion..
 
To be clear the demilitarized zone only extends from the Franco-German border so would not apply to Flanders / Belgian borders. The French are free to build as many fortresses as they want along that frontier.

I think Belgian Luxembourg would be tacked onto the nation of Flanders to help appease them.

The western section of Belgium and all the coast will remain as the Kingdom of Belgium. The Germans create a puppet state that includes Liege and Brussels but they don't actually annex any territory directly from what was Belgium.

The Belgian Congo is the only territory they take in Africa. They are not making any other demands in order to get all their own African possessions back and to prevent the Ottoman Empire from being dismembered. I believe there is zero chance the British would ever give up any of their own colonies. They could however get French colonies if they pushed. The Germans are trading any demands in Africa for the above concessions which they see as being more valuable in the long run.

Yes you were correct about Indochina my mistake.

I believe the total reparations amount originally placed on Germany came to about 25 billion marks. I decided to settle on ten to show a massive amount but still considerably less than that of Versailles where the victors were able to dictate the terms.
 
I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of one or two British colonies going to Germany in a negotiated peace; if Germany has occupied the Channel ports that does give them a fair bit of negotiating leverage with Britain. At the end of the day, German-controlled Uganda isn't nearly as much of a problem for Britain as German-controlled Calais and Dunkirk
 
So WI the Germans decide against unrestricted submarine warfare and the Zimmerman Telegram is never sent/fabricated and consequently the US doesn't enter the war. What is the German strategy? Do they wait to see if the Allies can continue to finance the war? Do they attempt to build in their success and knock Greece and/or Italy out of the war?

Without the unrestricted submarine warfare to break the British blockade, German strategy would probably have been to clamp down its land troops in its trenches until the Brest-Litovsk provisions relieve Germany instead of going out for one last offensive before US troops arrive in Europe as happened in OTL. If that happens, the war would happen longer with Germany winning by attrition. since in OTL, the CP almost achieved stalemate despite fighting a two-front war. Without US intervention, the balance would have been tipped in favour of the CP.

Another question to consider is what would have happened if Germany chose to maintain unrestricted submarine warfare throughout the war despite US objections. Germany abandoned it at first and then had to renew it when its surface fleet was incapable of breaking the British blockade because it was vastly outnumbered by the Royal Navy. Before Germany abandoned unrestricted warfare, Britain was close to pulling out of the war. I think the US would then have gone to war sooner and then Entente victory would have occurred in 1917 with milder Versailles conditions imposed on Germany. This is the best possible scenario for a better world after WW1.

Another question to consider is what if the US had not been a defacto Allied ally from the start despite joining the war in 1917? What if the US did not turn a blind eye to the illegal British blockade and subsequent British use of neutral ships to stock munitions for Britain, (which forced Germany to use unrestricted submarine warfare that angered the US)? The likely outcome would have been an early CP victory. I doubt that would have led to a better world.
 
I think the US would then have gone to war sooner and then Entente victory would have occurred in 1917 with milder Versailles conditions imposed on Germany. This is the best possible scenario for a better world after WW1.

I'm actually curious about this. Why is it that I always hear about how the US would still enter the war to support the Entente if the Germans continued unrestricted u-boat campaign but don't try the zimmerman note? I mean remember that it's congress that declares war and would this issue really be bad enough to convince them to declare war?
 
I'm actually curious about this. Why is it that I always hear about how the US would still enter the war to support the Entente if the Germans continued unrestricted u-boat campaign but don't try the zimmerman note? I mean remember that it's congress that declares war and would this issue really be bad enough to convince them to declare war?

The problem was that Germany was now sinking American ships. Three went down on a single day (March 18 iirc). Hitherto the worst that had ever happened had been American passengers on Allied (usually British) vessels getting drowned, and while the average American naturally disliked this, he seems to have been willing to swallow it rather than go to war. But attacks on America's own vessels were much harder to ignore. While it isn't absolutely certain that submarine war alone, without the ZT, would have brought America into the war, it is certainly a strong possibility or even probability.
 
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The problem was that Germany was now sinking American ships. Three went down on a single day (March 18 iirc). Hitherto the worst that had ever happened had been American passengers on Allied (usually British) vessels getting drowned, and while the average American naturally disliked this, he seems to have been wiling to swallow it rather than go to war. But attacks on America's own vessels were much harder to ignore. While it isn't absolutely certain that submarine war alone, without the ZT, would have brought America into the war, it is certainly a strong possibility or even probability.

At the very least, it's likely to result in an undeclared naval war similar to what happened in World War II OTL, and generally burn up whatever diplomatic goodwill the Germans had in the US.
 
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