German sphere of influence in a tripartite cold war

Say No Operation Barbarossa, Japan is defeated as otl and the axis is still thrown out of Africa. Cold war between America,Germany and the Soviet Union.

What countries could fall into a German sphere of influence
 

Bomster

Banned
Basically all of Europe west of Russia (excluding Switzerland, Ireland, and GB) Italy and it’s Empire, perhaps the Middle East and Turkey, maybe Iran, and maybe South Africa. Also Germany might try to expand into South America via Venezuela and Argentina.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Basically all of Europe west of Russia (excluding Switzerland, Ireland, and GB) Italy and it’s Empire, perhaps the Middle East and Turkey, maybe Iran, and maybe South Africa. Also Germany might try to expand into South America via Venezuela and Argentina.
Please explain how Switzerland is going to avoid being in the German sphere of influence when it is a landlocked nation surrounded by countries in the German sphere of influence.
 

Bomster

Banned
Please explain how Switzerland is going to avoid being in the German sphere of influence when it is a landlocked nation surrounded by countries in the German sphere of influence.
America and Britain will defend its neutrality. Considering that the OP said that Japan was defeated, I feel like it is likely that the allies had nukes first, and now all sides have nukes. The Nazis were crazy, but they certainly wouldn’t be crazy enough to risk thermonuclear suicide and doom their precious “Aryan Race” all over conquering little Switzerland. Economically however, yes, I can see Swiss businesses perhaps collaborating with German businesses, but no political alliance will be made. Not with the Soviets, not with the Allies, and definitely not with the Nazis.
 
Say No Operation Barbarossa, Japan is defeated as otl and the axis is still thrown out of Africa. Cold war between America,Germany and the Soviet Union.

What countries could fall into a German sphere of influence
Was there a peace signed between Germany and the UK? If not then that's still a hot war. Did Germany somehow develop nuclear weapons at lightning speed? I can't see how a Soviet-German War could be avoided otherwise.
 
America and Britain will defend its neutrality. Considering that the OP said that Japan was defeated, I feel like it is likely that the allies had nukes first, and now all sides have nukes. The Nazis were crazy, but they certainly wouldn’t be crazy enough to risk thermonuclear suicide and doom their precious “Aryan Race” all over conquering little Switzerland. Economically however, yes, I can see Swiss businesses perhaps collaborating with German businesses, but no political alliance will be made. Not with the Soviets, not with the Allies, and definitely not with the Nazis.
If this is a "Cold War", then Germany most likely will also have nukes, so the Allies would much rather give give Germany that doomed Switzerland rather than risk being obliterated themselves.

Stubbornly defending Switzerland has no purpose for the Allies, as the Swiss would not be willing to side with the Allies anyway (lest they risk destruction), and they are surrounded by a sea of brown, so the Allies can't even get any economic or political benefit from it. So why would they even care?
 

Bomster

Banned
If this is a "Cold War", then Germany most likely will also have nukes, so the Allies would much rather give give Germany that doomed Switzerland rather than risk being obliterated themselves.

Stubbornly defending Switzerland has no purpose for the Allies, as the Swiss would not be willing to side with the Allies anyway (lest they risk destruction), and they are surrounded by a sea of brown, so the Allies can't even get any economic or political benefit from it. So why would they even care?
They would care because Switzerland is a capitalist democracy, and letting another democracy be absorbed by the monstrous fascist tide wouldn’t be good for an ideology that is basically on the defense against said fascist tide.
 
They would care because Switzerland is a capitalist democracy, and letting another democracy be absorbed by the monstrous fascist tide wouldn’t be good for an ideology that is basically on the defense against said fascist tide.
A cold war isn't about ideology, it's about pragmatism. Just look at the OTL Cold War - both America and the USSR ended up endorsing dictators which were as divorced from their proclaimed ideals as they possibly could, just for the sake of influence spreading and biting the other side. In this case - sure, Switzerland is a democracy, but it's also completely undefendable. The Allies can't bring them relief, soldiers, they can't place military bases there, nor can they even gain any benefit from a neutral state in the middle of enemy territory - it's not a NATO member or even an aligned state, and couldn't possibly become one, so even if the Allies wanted to defend this dead weight so much, what the hell could they even do?

The best possible fate for Switzerland in this scenario is becoming Finlandized to the max, but even that strikes me as unlikely, because unlike Switzerland, Finland could potentially be defendable and strategically important if it went to NATO, so unlike in TTL, the Soviets have a reason to keep Finland neutral and not eliminated.
 

Bomster

Banned
A cold war isn't about ideology, it's about pragmatism. Just look at the OTL Cold War - both America and the USSR ended up endorsing dictators which were as divorced from their proclaimed ideals as they possibly could, just for the sake of influence spreading and biting the other side. In this case - sure, Switzerland is a democracy, but it's also completely undefendable. The Allies can't bring them relief, soldiers, they can't place military bases there, nor can they even gain any benefit from a neutral state in the middle of enemy territory - it's not a NATO member or even an aligned state, and couldn't possibly become one, so even if the Allies wanted to defend this dead weight so much, what the hell could they even do?

The best possible fate for Switzerland in this scenario is becoming Finlandized to the max, but even that strikes me as unlikely, because unlike Switzerland, Finland could potentially be defendable and strategically important if it went to NATO, so unlike in TTL, the Soviets have a reason to keep Finland neutral and not eliminated.

Yeah you’re right. Despite it’s symbolic importance, it will most likely be forced to “join the fold” with Germany, or worse...
 

Bomster

Banned
Hitler hated the Swiss, too.

"Switzerland possessed the most disgusting and miserable people and political system. The Swiss were the mortal enemies of the new Germany." That's what he said in 1941.
I guess that Switzerland would be split between Germany and Italy. Makes me sad :( Perhaps the only thing that can save Switzerland is a German-Italian split which forces independent Switzerland to become a buffer state.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Hitler hated the Swiss, too.

"Switzerland possessed the most disgusting and miserable people and political system. The Swiss were the mortal enemies of the new Germany." That's what he said in 1941.
"... were ... " ??
In 1941 they still are ... in existence as well as being an important ... "clearing house" for finance, gold (of whatever provenience, the swiss didn't ask too many questions about) and contacts. The made/prepared plans for an invasion (operation Tannenbaum) were never set in motion as being too costly for no gain at all.
Switzerland as it was, was much more ... "profitable" for the Nazis.

A position it would most likely keep ITTL.
 
Im curious asto how there could be a sustainable Cold War status between countries that direvtly border eachother. Wouldn't there likely be some form of escalation due to that? Especially if both powers are "equal?"

And if that is unsustainable (as I imagine it would be), wouldnt this three way civil war devolve into an OTL West v Soviets Cold War or a AANW Americans/British v Nazi's Cold War?
 
Im curious asto how there could be a sustainable Cold War status between countries that direvtly border eachother. Wouldn't there likely be some form of escalation due to that? Especially if both powers are "equal?"
You could have something similar to the Sino-Soviet border conflict but I doubt any Soviet or Nazi leader is going to take the Mao approach to nuclear war .
 
All of Europe west of the USSR likely is in the German zone of influence, with the possible exception of Sweden and Finland.

Switzerland likely manages to successfully play Switzerland.

Italy likely will be more of a junior partner than a country dominated by Germany.

Portugal might actually be able to escape the German sphere of influence as Salazar, despite being a dictator, didn't like Fascism all that much.

Aside from Europe, Spanish Colonial Africa and Italian colonial africa would be in the German sphere. I could see Germany making friends with some Arab dictatorships too, although I think Nasser due to his pan-Arabism might side with the Soviets still (he'd dislike Italian Libya). Syria and the PLO seem likely to end up in the German sphere but Iraq is up for grabs (Hashemites would be pro-British, there was a strong communist movement for a while, Baathists would be pro-Germany I think - who wins out I don't know). The Gulf monarchies and Hashemites would be pro-british.

South Africa either is US/UK aligned if the Union Party wins in 1948 or German-aligned if the Union Party loses. If Apartheid South Africa is pro-German, I could see a fascinating scenario where Natal secedes when South Africa becomes a Republic (as they considered doing historically). Oh what a situation it would be if you have a pro-British Rhodesia and Natal staring down a pro-German South Africa.

A Free French Rump State may be established in Algeria. What a situation that would be. Alternatively, if there's no Operation Torch here, a Pied Noire Apartheid Algeria that's backed by Germany might pop up.

Thailand and Taiwan probably play various sides against one another.

The Germans may find friends in Latin America. Latin American populism and its focus on economic autarky and nationalism comes off as more Fascistic than Socialistic despite the region's anti-capitalism being associated with leftism during the Cold War.
 
I could see Germany making friends with some Arab dictatorships too, although I think Nasser due to his pan-Arabism might side with the Soviets still (he'd dislike Italian Libya).
If there is no Italian colonies in Africa, Could Nasser fall into a German Sphere ?
 
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