German Signs alliance in 1902 with Japan -- invades Russia 1904

Yep 100% I think Teddy ends being peacemaker ....

My basic is
1904 germany takes poland and Riga, ah takes some land and helps poland . France gets bloodied
1905 german production of 105's get ramped up, russian revolts heat up, bulgaria, Romania, oe join ce
1906 germans pound french ports, russia falls apart, massive forces move west vs France
Peace Russia broken up, France goes into Econ collapse

So, does France then end up commie, fascist, or Bourbonist/Orleanist?
 

trajen777

Banned
So, does France then end up commie, fascist, or Bourbonist/Orleanist?

I think you would go back to a leftest gov -- focused on the colonies and economic growth. After the defeats of 1904 and 1870 i think the need for revenge would be minimal, this is highly probably with a collapsed Russia.
 
The french would have to control the med to source troops, and if they wished to contest the North Sea they would need a all of their fleet there. They can't do both. In the med u have the ah fleet and if italy comes in they will have their hands full. It would be an ugly series of merchant raids on each combatant but the Germans should have an advantage by being able to go north for shipping around scotland. They could sweep at will down the french coasts and bombard the key ports disrupting the unloading of ships. In cruiser wars the Germans had an advantage so most likely would win. Their economy is much greater so they can buy or out build the french.

Most likely the french merchant fleet is destroyed in the pacific by japan. In addition most if not all the french colonies are lost.

Country Battleships Completed, Launched, & Laid Down Naval Expenditure (in Millions of Pounds Sterling, Current Prices)
Germany 24 10,7
Austria-Hungary 7 2,3
Italy 3 4, 7
France 17 11,7
Russia 22 N. 11,9
Britain 39 36,8
Turkey 1 N. 0,5
Table 2: Naval Strength, 1904 (with Estimates in Italics)[12]

So germany plus ah have 31 bob vs french 17. Add italy 3. The Russians have 22 but they have lost 8 and 4 in the Black Sea.

Neither Italy or Austria-Hungary are required to join this aggressive war. And given Italy's History and Franz Joseph's personality i don't think they will. Certainly Italy will wait until they are 75% sure of the winner.

Germany has no bases at distance, France does, the British will close the channel to warships since most of their merchant traffic goes that way, forcing Germany's warships to go north as well, and France's submarine fleet is quite large and Germany has no escorts or escort plan to speak of. France having a developed economy as opposed to developing, has more actual money than Germany. So they can out buy the Germans.

And again, with no Haber Process, the German ability to produce ammunition at an industrial level is crippled. So how glorious is the German advance in Russia going to be when their guns can fire only half of the time?
 

trajen777

Banned
Neither Italy or Austria-Hungary are required to join this aggressive war. And given Italy's History and Franz Joseph's personality i don't think they will. Certainly Italy will wait until they are 75% sure of the winner.

Germany has no bases at distance, France does, the British will close the channel to warships since most of their merchant traffic goes that way, forcing Germany's warships to go north as well, and France's submarine fleet is quite large and Germany has no escorts or escort plan to speaf. France having a developed economy as opposed to developing, has more actual money than Germany. So they can out buy the Germans.

And again, with no Haber Process, the German ability to produce ammunition at an industrial level is crippled. So how glorious is the German advance in Russia going to be when their guns can fire only half of the time?

A. The German GDP was massively bigger then the French economy :

French GDP:115,504
German GDP :195,778

B The french had 5 subs in 1904 : http://www.naval-history.net/WW1NavyFrench.htm
52. SIRENE class, ESPADON (swordfish), SILURE (silurus), SIRENE (mermaid), TRITON (the sea-god), 4 boats, 155/215t, 9/5 knots, 4-45cm external torpedoes, 13 crew, launched 1901
53. AIGRETTE class, AIGRETTE (egret), COGOGNE, 2 boats - 180/255t, 9/6 knots, 4-45cm external torpedoes, 14 crew, launched 1904

C. The Germans would just source nitrates from the USA, UK, or the rest of the world

Each side would just use cruiser warfare to try to cut into the others trade, but this would be difficulty for either country to be successful since each side would have to attack neutral shipping, which would be a long term disaster for either party.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Neither Italy or Austria-Hungary are required to join this aggressive war. And given Italy's History and Franz Joseph's personality i don't think they will. Certainly Italy will wait until they are 75% sure of the winner.
A-H would join dogpile onto Russia, because the alternative of a weakened Germany and stronger Russia is not in A-H interests. I do struggle a bit with the original POD premise of a CP preventative war with Russia, more-or-less out of nowhere.

Germany has no bases at distance, France does, the British will close the channel to warships since most of their merchant traffic goes that way, forcing Germany's warships to go north as well, and France's submarine fleet is quite large and Germany has no escorts or escort plan to speak of. France having a developed economy as opposed to developing, has more actual money than Germany. So they can out buy the Germans.

The Germans do not have to protect the neutral shipping from bringing it everything it needs to continue to wage a continental war. Suggesting the British would automatically close the English channel is a bit of hand wave considering it was far from certain the British would do this after several years of military co-ordination and promises to do the same with the French OTL. Per OTL 1914 onward, France cannot buy a breach in the German defenses, nor replace its own dead with coin. The submarine and torpedo tech of the 1904 era was more suited to defending harbors than roaming the open oceans.

And again, with no Haber Process, the German ability to produce ammunition at an industrial level is crippled. So how glorious is the German advance in Russia going to be when their guns can fire only half of the time?

Again:
1. smaller armies, so less munition consumption
2. no fast firing artillery and fewer machine guns, so far less munition consumption
3. no need to reduce condensed western defenses (i.e. trench warfare), so far less munition consumption
4. Haber Process was the best and most efficient domestic source of nitrates, not the only domestic source
5. There is no practical way for the French to halt the German importation of nitrates, without the explicit assistance of Britain and the USA - both of which were no friends of despotic Imperial Russia.
 
Again:
1. smaller armies, so less munition consumption
2. no fast firing artillery and fewer machine guns, so far less munition consumption
3. no need to reduce condensed western defenses (i.e. trench warfare), so far less munition consumption
4. Haber Process was the best and most efficient domestic source of nitrates, not the only domestic source
5. There is no practical way for the French to halt the German importation of nitrates, without the explicit assistance of Britain and the USA - both of which were no friends of despotic Imperial Russia.
^This.

I'm sure that the USA is going to be shipping nitrates to the UK, as well as munitions themselves, so...
If the UK is in the fight against Russia, the RN is not going to sit still for MN ships stopping shipments to their ports, nor is the USA going to forgo it's trade with the UK & Germany just to appease the French.
 
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