German-Russian-Japanese Alliance

xsampa

Banned
Assuming that a different right-wing party takes power in Germany instead of the Nazis and cooperates with the USSR economically and militarily to oppose Britain and France, eventually drawing Japan into the alliance with promises of securing British, French and Dutch colonies for the resources needed to strike at China, how much territory could this alliance occupy in a total war?
 
Assuming that a different right-wing party takes power in Germany instead of the Nazis and cooperates with the USSR economically and militarily to oppose Britain and France, eventually drawing Japan into the alliance with promises of securing British, French and Dutch colonies for the resources needed to strike at China, how much territory could this alliance occupy in a total war?
This scenario would work if Germany went communist or if Russia remained Tsarist. Otherwise, right-wing Germany and militarist Japan would not want to cooperate with the Soviet Union, due to ideological differences and opposition to communism. This alternate right-wing Germany and Japan may cooperate with Britain against the USSR. France may cooperate with the USSR against this alternate Germany, but their alliance would suffer once the Soviets move against Poland and the Little Entente. Japan and the USSR are a check on each other's ambitions in China and Korea.
 
Assuming that a different right-wing party takes power in Germany instead of the Nazis and cooperates with the USSR economically and militarily to oppose Britain and France, eventually drawing Japan into the alliance with promises of securing British, French and Dutch colonies for the resources needed to strike at China, how much territory could this alliance occupy in a total war?
Getting an alliance between Japan and Russia without Japan handing back its gains from 1905 is probably ASB. It would require a totally different 20th Century to get them to trust each other enough.

What does Russia get from the alliance if it does occur, not being attacked by Japan is hardly a good reason and a Japan that could conquer China is just too much of a threat?
 
Very interesting idea. If they all took this alliance seriously then they'd win, or maybe it ends in a stalemate. This isn't really possible, though. Germany and USSR could ally, but it's not happening with Japan because there's nothing that could be gained out of them allying and Japan also considered Russia its biggest enemy at that point because of the history of conflicts dating back to 1820.
 
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If it was managed properly, all of Eurasia from Normandy to Korea would be Axis. India becomes the bloodiest theater in history. After that, the nukes go flying between the Anglo Americans and the Axis.
 
A genuine Notzi-Soviet alliance can pretty much steamroll anyone they can reach, and as long as it avoids overtly threatening the United States, they can fight all other major powers simultaneously to at least a draw.

Adding Japan as an "ally" is more about Japan finding a way to be humbled without having to admit to being humbled; they're the junior partner and the Soviets have no reason to allow them to conquer China, not when that would be enough to make them a threat.
 
Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia.

Mackinder loses and Mahan wins. Sea and airpower is the military and political coinage of a planet covered by 70% ocean. As long as the world island is confined to central Eurasia, the world island is screwed. The sea-powers will eat it alive.

 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Mackinder loses and Mahan wins. Sea and airpower is the military and political coinage of a planet covered by 70% ocean. As long as the world island is confined to central Eurasia, the world island is screwed. The sea-powers will eat it alive.
A German-Russian alliance would only be constrained by the Atlantic to the West and the Pacific to the East. It would have complete autarky, with no need for trade with potentially hostile outside powers.
 
You need to look at the way geology works and where critical meteor strikes that deposited and or blasted up masscons of rare metals occurred on the Earth. (Examples: North America around Great Lakes or the Kola peninsula or Northern Sweden or south central Africa or northern and western Australia. If your thesis was true, then China would not be suicidally vulnerable to threats to her SLOCs, nor Russia vulnerable to losing needed trade routes to Africa. Sea-power is their Achilles heels and they both know it.

Besides, the oil is at the periphery of central Eurasia, so they are still screwed.
 
A German-Russian alliance would only be constrained by the Atlantic to the West and the Pacific to the East. It would have complete autarky, with no need for trade with potentially hostile outside powers.
Rubber is in rather short supply in Eurasia and the New World (mainly the US, tbh) dominated oil production by a massive margin for quite a while (Saudi oil production would rise rapidly given time and stability but wars for control of the region could delay by years or kill it off altogether). Those are two resources a German-Russian alliance would be hard-pressed to acquire if they start stepping on too many toes.

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eventually drawing Japan into the alliance with promises of securing British, French and Dutch colonies for the resources needed to strike at China
The USSR and Japan both have strategic interests in Northern China and Mongolia, the Russians are still smarting about being the only European power in modern history to lose to an Asian power (EDIT: before WWII, that is, and prior to the PoD in the OP) and thus losing all their influence in Manchuria and Korea (both of which were on their way to being Russian protectorates), and the Japanese were not well-known for being grounded with their expectations of their military capabilities at this point in history. Once they're in the Chinese quagmire, they're not pulling out, in part because any politician that tries to make such a move will get assassinated (the League of Blood, May 15 Incident, the Kodoha in general). Compromising on the matter of China is not a move that a politician can survive trying to enforce and the Russians have their own grudge that the Japanese militarist faction will not be willing to make concessions to assuage. That alliance is not something that can survive very long.
 
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the Russians are still smarting about being the only European power in modern history to lose to an Asian power

Britain... United States.... France; all have been defeated by Asian powers. Granted the British reoccupied what the Japanese took in southeast Asia, but it was not a true reconquest was it? And we cannot forget the Vietnamese who handed two "European nations" their asses, either. Then there is the Netherlands...
 
Britain... United States.... France; all have been defeated by Asian powers. Granted the British reoccupied what the Japanese took in southeast Asia, but it was not a true reconquest was it? And we cannot forget the Vietnamese who handed two "European nations" their asses, either. Then there is the Netherlands...
To that point, apologies. That ought to have been specified in the original post. But, if we're talking pre-WWII, Russia was the only one to have lost in any significant way to any Asian power in the pre-WWII modern era.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Rubber is in rather short supply in Eurasia and the New World (mainly the US, tbh) dominated oil production by a massive margin for quite a while (Saudi oil production would rise rapidly given time and stability but wars for control of the region could delay by years or kill it off altogether). Those are two resources a German-Russian alliance would be hard-pressed to acquire if they start stepping on too many toes.
USSR + Romania will easily feed the oil needs of Russia and Germany. If Japan is friendly and seizes Indochina it can provide rubber, if not then the French can be intimidated into trading for it. There’s also synthetic rubber.
 

Kaze

Banned
Russia x Japan would be in the realm of ASB. They are not going to forget or forgive the Russo-Japanese War or that Japan tried to set up a government in Russia during the Russian Civil War in the Far Eastern Territories.
 
Assuming that a different right-wing party takes power in Germany instead of the Nazis and cooperates with the USSR economically and militarily to oppose Britain and France, eventually drawing Japan into the alliance with promises of securing British, French and Dutch colonies for the resources needed to strike at China, how much territory could this alliance occupy in a total war?
An excellent question! Can you give us a bit more information on what you are looking to discuss here in thread? What time frame/time span are we looking at for the German/USSR part to begin and solidify, and exactly when do they bring Japan into the fold? What about other nations? Italy and Turkey seem to be possible pivotal nations that might be good to have on your side. Italy for a doorway into Africa prewar, and Turkey for the doorway into the Middle-East prewar. Japan is an essential member asap.

I'll be watching this thread.
 
Getting an alliance between Japan and Russia without Japan handing back its gains from 1905 is probably ASB.

Most of the Japanese gains were outside Russia proper (Manchuria, Korea) and Southern Sakhalin was not extremely important for the SU. In OTL these countries did have trade relations all the way to Japanese oil concession in Northern Sakhalin which lasted until 1945.

It would require a totally different 20th Century to get them to trust each other enough.

No, it would just take a common hate of the Brits and other "imperialists" plus some realistic economic interests: Japan was interested in import of the raw materials which the SU had and the SU always needed hard currency.

What does Russia get from the alliance if it does occur, not being attacked by Japan is hardly a good reason and a Japan that could conquer China is just too much of a threat?

Japan would be only one member of the alliance and what the SU wanted from alliance with Germany had been made quite clear in OTL: the Baltic states and technology.
 
Well, Russia would gain the ability to invade the Middle East and Iran, Germany would get of course Western Europe, they both share spheres in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, Russia kind of protects a divided China but can share economic spheres of influence with Japan over the various warlord cliques. And Japan would be able to focus on naval warfare for getting the East Indies, Singapore and perhaps India.

Actually it's a far, FAR better arrangement than the original WW2 Axis, as long as they don't disturb the US too much.
 
it would require a series of dramatic changes to arrive at a Germany-USSR-Japan Axis? the USSR would be growing in strength, imposing increasingly unfavorable trade terms, and nibbling territories whenever possible?

somehow the Soviets need to blunder into conflict with Allies, solo invasion of Iran instead of historical Winter War? or some other atypical action(s)
 
one simple way to have the three in the Axis is for USSR to be defeated quickly and a Vichy-style regime established, not easy even if both Germany and Japan invaded but simple?
 
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