German / Russia alliance late 1890s

Eurofed

Banned
Russia may not have just Austria and the Ottomans to fight, past a point. Too much of a Russian success and overt bid for supremacy in the Balkans and the Middle East is very, very likely to drag Britain in the Entente. Russians in Constantinople has been a British nightmare since Napoleon.

And if Britain joins, Japan most likely does so, too, unless butterflies radically alter the alliance system and sphere of interest of the Japanese (and Russian behavior in the Far East). Of course, the schedule of their entry is liable to variation. But Russia may also have theaters in Persia, Central Asia, and Manchuria to man.

In the Balkans, I agree we may in all likelihood expect Serbia and Romania to join the CP out of greed for Habsburg spoils, unless Austria is *very* successful to puppetize them (and even then, coups may happen).

As I see it, Greece is a bit of a wild card. It would be pushed to join the CP for the reasons Daylight Savings quoted, but fear of Anglo-French naval power and British influence may rein them in, esp. if Britain joins the Entente early. If it does, the Greeks may delay their intervention until Austria falls and the Ottomans start to buckle. If it does not, they may indeed join the CP early.

I have no sure idea of what Bulgaria may do, it largely depends on how butterflies would affect TTL equivalent of the Balkan Wars (other Balkan states are of course also liable to this, but somewhat less so, their irredentist concerns are less influenced by this).
 

Eurofed

Banned
I'd also expect war in the Balkans to have a fluid character, initially more balanced as the Austro-Ottomans and the Russians and Balkan minors trade blows, followed by a general CP overrun of the theater all the way to Thrace once Austria starts to buckle and collapses under combined German-Russian pressure. At some point, we may also expect an Italian landing in the Western Balkans.

The strategic position of A-H in this alliance system indeed becomes so bad that in all likelihood we may expect Vienna to be dragged in the war by its more belligerant allies (France most likely, perhaps Britain in response to some Russian action) and unwillingness of Berlin and St.Petersburg to leave it alone once the fun starts.
 
1) True, but on the other hand if Russia's already allied with Germany the UK will be in the *Entente no matter what anyhow as that gives Germany and its allies a direct, easy, simple route to menace India. The UK in the *Entente is a given.

2) Even if they don't, neither would have what it would take to stop this particular Russia, able to commit not four armies to Galicia-Volhynia at the start of the war but six. Given the degree to which Austria was smashed IOTL and that it will have to keep itself with its cumbersome, slow-mobilizing army far more spread out than Russia would (for one thing the simple *fear* of Germany striking itself requires troops stationed in the West).....Russia will rip through Austria-Hungary and probably capture Vienna by crossing through the Carpathians in a year's time. The problem is what happens after that.

3) The Ottomans have a relatively poor position to attack Russia from, though without having to fight on multiple widespread fronts I think any equivalent to the OTL Third Balkan War will end very, very badly for Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria. The Ottomans, after all, did very well against the British Empire, the small states against that state with its armies on a full war footing instead of a jump in and get out war will be in a bad shape. Russia's problems will be the logistics of *how* to strike at the Ottomans.
 

Eurofed

Banned
1) True, but on the other hand if Russia's already allied with Germany the UK will be in the *Entente no matter what anyhow as that gives Germany and its allies a direct, easy, simple route to menace India. The UK in the *Entente is a given.

No qualm about it. :)

2) Even if they don't, neither would have what it would take to stop this particular Russia, able to commit not four armies to Galicia-Volhynia at the start of the war but six. Given the degree to which Austria was smashed IOTL and that it will have to keep itself with its cumbersome, slow-mobilizing army far more spread out than Russia would (for one thing the simple *fear* of Germany striking itself requires troops stationed in the West).....Russia will rip through Austria-Hungary and probably capture Vienna by crossing through the Carpathians in a year's time. The problem is what happens after that.

Not to mention the fact that unless the Kaiser and his generals get a case of tertiary syphilitis, they are going to go on the defensive in Elsass-Lothringen and throw the bulk of the German army against Austria.

3) The Ottomans have a relatively poor position to attack Russia from, though without having to fight on multiple widespread fronts I think any equivalent to the OTL Third Balkan War will end very, very badly for Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria. The Ottomans, after all, did very well against the British Empire, the small states against that state with its armies on a full war footing instead of a jump in and get out war will be in a bad shape. Russia's problems will be the logistics of *how* to strike at the Ottomans.

Full agreement about this. The Balkan threater most likely would become a case of the Ottomans first whupping the ass of the CP Balkan powers while the CP majors are busy crushing A-H, then a combo Russo-German-Italian force kicking the Ottomans all the way back to Thrace. CP logistics to strike at the Ottomans would then be not that good, through the Caucasus for obvious reasons, and the terrain in Thrace favors trench warfare very much.

IMO, if the CP are any smart, once A-H and the Balkans are conquered, they would concentrate their forces again (including Italian and Russian expeditionary corps on the Western Front) to overrun the Anglo-French through sheer force of numbers, and only then focus on Turkey.
 
1) I could see that in this scenario, as the Germans will have a completely different set of strategic needs. With Russia as an ally, Austria-Hungary is their big wartime enemy, and between Germany and Russia the Austro-Hungarians would be crushed fairly rapidly. Attacking straight at Vienna is not necessarily simple for either of the two states due to geography, but combined....from an A-H POV...ouch. :eek:

2) Their being that smart, however, *is* a good question. It might be obvious from a dispassionate POV but war is not usually conducted on that Spock-like basis in real-time. They might well try to follow up on what looks like greater success then it would actually be and then run into a mirror of the Salonika Front, at least the *first* go-round. Add to this that both Russia and Germany will likely make the British mistake of thing "Bah, what can the Turks really *do*?" then you've got an even worse problem in avoiding them making the mistake at least once.
 
2) Their being that smart, however, *is* a good question. It might be obvious from a dispassionate POV but war is not usually conducted on that Spock-like basis in real-time. They might well try to follow up on what looks like greater success then it would actually be and then run into a mirror of the Salonika Front, at least the *first* go-round. Add to this that both Russia and Germany will likely make the British mistake of thing "Bah, what can the Turks really *do*?" then you've got an even worse problem in avoiding them making the mistake at least once.

Them falling victim to the mistake of underestimating the Turks actually does sound likely, but I think that argues for German war plans along the lines Eurofed mentioned. Crush the unstable power positioned in the middle of your allies A-H. Then concentrate on your arch-nemesis. Then go on an expedition to the Aegean.
 

Eurofed

Banned
2) Their being that smart, however, *is* a good question. It might be obvious from a dispassionate POV but war is not usually conducted on that Spock-like basis in real-time. They might well try to follow up on what looks like greater success then it would actually be and then run into a mirror of the Salonika Front, at least the *first* go-round. Add to this that both Russia and Germany will likely make the British mistake of thing "Bah, what can the Turks really *do*?" then you've got an even worse problem in avoiding them making the mistake at least once.

Oh, I can agree that the CP may easily make that mistake *once*. After they get a Verdun equivalent in Thrace or two, they may just as easily see that it is better to take out France second, then Turkey last, since the terrain in the Western front allows for a much better non-wasteful concentration of superior CP forces (after all, Russian armies have already fought their way to Paris once). The fall of France would also substantially weaken the Entente in the Med, and so make more difficult for Britain to support the Ottomans. The conquest of Constantinople would still cost the CP a bucketful of blood or three, but then the CP would be in the position of having not much else to do, to achieve final victory.
 
Daylight Savings-Again the plans might well say this, but what circumstances *do* To those plans, however, may be very different from what is actually envisioned. This is hardly just a German/CP thing.

Eurofed-I don't disagree with this, but I can certainly see them propelled by events and the heat of the moment more than straightforward military logic at least once.
 

Perkeo

Banned
I wouldn't take for granted that Austria falls as fast as people think, for two reasons:

1) Britain and the Ottoman Empire will try very hard to prevent it, and they do have the means to make a difference

2) Austria will know the thread in advance and have the opportunity to prepare for it.

While I aggree that "Austria gets crushed within six months" is the most likely scenario, I think it could just as well be anywere between those two extremes:

CP-WANK:
The Pan-Germans and Pan-Slavs launch a coup against the Habsburgs, Kingdom of Hungaria declares independence and neutrality, and the CP's "liberate" what used to be AH with their regulars barely firing a single shot.

AUSTRIAWANK:
Habsburg propaganda makes the outside thread a stabilizing factor. German speaking Austrians fear Prussian rule, Hungarians fear Russian and Ottoman rule, so all of them agree that defending AH has priority over any internal differences. The Habsburgs try very hard to modernize the state and the military, so a much better Austrian army captures Munich within a few weeks and finally meets the French by Würzburg. While France moves up north towards the Ruhr aerea, Austria can reinforce the entrenched troops on the eastern front.
 

WeisSaul

Banned
I would also expect Greece to fight with Germany and Russia. With their German king, orthodox population and massive hatred of the Ottomans they'd be more than willing to help on that front. Not a major power granted, but they could stir up some uprising in Izmir and other areas of western Anatolia.

Considering the Russians will want Constantinople, and the Greeks will want Constantinople, any peace deal will be wrought with tensions. If Britain stays out of it, it may publicly support Greek claims at the expense of Russia, and Italy may support the Greeks seeing a wonderful opportunity to expand influence in the Med at the expense of the Russians. Greece will likely take much more land than OTL regardless. Turkey will have few men left following a massive invasion by the Russians, and the Greeks would be able to secure their land with ease.

Italy would likely be the biggest benefactor out of any peace deal. Nice, Savoy, Tunisia, Tripolitania, Cyreneica, Istria, Dalmatia, Albania, Lebanon, Tyrrol, and Carinola. Its overseas empire would gain Madagascar, French Somaliland, and Comoros. They would be seen as an expansion of Italy's Africa Orientale, considering they all are considered east Africa.

Homs, Aleppo, Damascus, Alexandretta, and Israel/Palestine would likely go to Italy. No one else is really poised to take it in the same way the Italians can.

I think Russia would annex all Armenian lands, according to the OTL Sykes-Picot agreement, and establish satellite Kingdoms of Kurdistan and Assyria. Arabs would get the whole Peninsula, but Mesopotamia would likely be dominated by Italy and Russia as a buffer state.

The remained of Anatolia would be Turkish, not that much would be left for the Turks.
 
I wouldn't take for granted that Austria falls as fast as people think, for two reasons:

1) Britain and the Ottoman Empire will try very hard to prevent it, and they do have the means to make a difference

2) Austria will know the thread in advance and have the opportunity to prepare for it.

While I aggree that "Austria gets crushed within six months" is the most likely scenario

The problem is that no matter how you slice it, the Dual Monarchy can do two things: it can survive or it can have a military structured on bureaucratically rationalized lines. It cannot do both at the same time.
 

Perkeo

Banned
The problem is that no matter how you slice it, the Dual Monarchy can do two things: it can survive or it can have a military structured on bureaucratically rationalized lines. It cannot do both at the same time.

The Habsburgs cannot force the Hungarians into an alliance, but they may well convince them to do so voluntarily with very clever propaganda. They were on the right track with the OTL Ausgleich, turning the Empire to a confederation and a personal union, and I don't think the Hungarians less afraid of Russian or Ottoman rule, nor will the Czechs want to be Prussian. The Croatians may actually want Austrian expansion to free their compatiots under Ottoman rule. The Italians are the only inherent problem.

So at the end of the day, A LOT depends on wether the Habsburgs are clever or stupid, and its not set in stone that they're exactly as stupid as IOTL.
 
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