German Revolution in 1866?

[Mirza Khan]

Searching around on the forums just now, and found this old thread. Particulary, I thought this post by Admiral Matt (about France intervening in the Austro-Prussian war) was interesting:

The French, who were desperately scrambling to enter before the peace deal went through, actually intervene. Prussia is holding the north of Germany and Bohemia; Austria and France are holding Austria and France; Prussia gets knocked unconscious with a shoe and curb-stomped.

The interesting bit here is that Europe spends the 19th century increasingly worried about French dominance. Probably they just break bits off Prussia as independent states and use their position to dominate Germany. Some annexation is possible, I suppose. Given their relationship with Italy and Austria's weakened state, they could probably dictate a fait accomplit so long as it was not outrageous enough to force British or Russian hands.

So, lets say that, during the Austro-Prussian war, Prussia does somewhat...better, destroying a bit more of the Austrian army and prompting France to intervene. Prussia, with its armies completely out of position in Austria, gets severely beaten up. France makes a few minor annexations in the Rhineland, breaks the bulk of the Prussian Rhineland up into three or four independent states, and gives Saxony back all the lands Prussia annexed from it after the Congress of Vienna.

The interesting thing here is...what happens next? The Austrian military probably needs a few years to recover, and at any rate has been shown to be not nearly as powerful as previously thought. The Prussian military, which managed to defeat the Austrians, has in turn been smashed up by France. Prussia has been destroyed as anything more than a medium power, and Bismark probably gets an early retirement package with unofficial instructions not to show his face in Berlin again. The idea of a Prussian-united Germany is discredited. The idea of an Austrian-united Germany is probably on pretty weak ground as well. Most every military force in Germany has been kicked around, either by the Prussians or by the French. Britian and Russia are looking at France very suspiciously, with Britain especially fearing the rise of a much-dreaded continental hegimon.

With all this in mind, I'm thinking the likely result is something like 1848 happening again-a massive groundswell of support for a united Germany, leading to popular protests and riots demanding the calling of a pan-German parliament. (The French-puppet states in the Rhineland seems like the best starting place, actually, since they will have the least legitimacy). Austria, likely, will still be strong enough to survive, but I think everywhere else in Germany would be very vulnerable. Furthermore, I think fear of France would make Britain supportive of a united Germany in order to prevent Napoleon III from dominating Europe.

While there's a lot of ways this "German Revolution" could go, its likely to be significantly more liberal than the OTL Kaiserreich was-indeed, the Kaiserreich has always struck me as essentially, a set of concessions designed to ensure a united, democratic-looking Germany that was still dominated by the old Prussian junkers. TTL's revolutionary Germany, whatever it may be, won't fit this description, as the events of the Franco/Austiran-Prussian war (for lack of a better name) will have left them discredited.

Also, while above I assumed that the Revolution immediately follows the war, I don't think this would necessarily be the case-it could be immediately, or could be delayed by a few years. However, I think the war makes some kind of pan-German Revolution highly likely at some point, in the same way that the Arab monarchies all getting their rears kicked by Israel in 1948 paved the way for the fall of most of them in the 1950's.

Thoughts? What would TTL's Germany likely look like politically? (I admittedly haven't really thought about this yet)

 

[wolf_brother]

Thoughts? What would TTL's Germany likely look like politically? (I admittedly haven't really thought about this yet)

Anything that smashes up Prussian hegemony in the German states, weakens royal power so significantly, and kicks out Bismarck will lead to another Berlin Uprising. Prussia likely becomes a constitutional monarchy with a fairly strong legislature. Other revolutions of a similar kind likely follow in both the defeated and victorious states; revolutions tend to work that way. I'm sure pan-Germanism is high, but the reactions of the French, Austrian-Germans, and other powers (Britain, Russia) will play a large role in how things play out. Even then if the movement is successful immediately following 1866 it'll likely be some sort of loose federal arrangement; less of a state or an empire and more akin to IOTL's EU perhaps.

The Poles likely take their chance to rebel in Posen and Krakow; if the French feel particularly vicious they'll support the former while helping the Austrians crush the latter.

Most of the German states Prussia conquered and annexed in the war (Hanover, Hesse-Kassel, Frankfurt, Nassau, and Hesse-Darmstadt) are re-established, and likely fall under the French sphere of influence. The Hesse states likely unify in some fashion or another, perhaps including Nassau. Kingdom of Hesse-Nassau? If so Frankfurt is tossed into the mix and becomes the capitol; unless otherwise occupied as a capitol district for the new German (Con)Federation. Denmark may or may not regain Schleswig-Holstein; if so its like with British arbitration to limit expanding French influence. The Rhine province is broken away from Prussia, but IMHO it will become its own state; I sincerely doubt it'd be broken up into several statelets, and any French urge for annexation would primary be targeted towards Luxembourg - perhaps the lower Mosel / Palatinate region as well, but certainly no further. These re-established states likely join France in some sort of free trade agreement with France as the clear dominant partner.

I'm not sure Saxony would be willing to accept territories, from the French, back that had originally been lost in the Congress of Vienna. On the other hand...

The various defeater smaller Prussian allies are probably punished with monetary and perhaps even territorial concessions.

Even with all this Prussia is still going to be a powerful player in German politics, and now it will be she ITTL whose public will have a need to satisfy their rache. Pan-Germanism could potentially blend in some unique ways with pro-Prussian, anti-French sentiments... though this will be less likely in the western states than the central and east. Again, it will depend on the exact circumstances.

The OTL Austro-Hungarian Compromise likely gets accelerated slightly, leading to AH in late 1866 instead of early 1867. Not a big change, but could be significant in light of Austrian affairs throughout the rest of her empire (re: Italy and France's influence there).

Edit: Also, 1000th post. Whoo!

 

[Mirza Khan]

Notice I said minor annexations-I suspect the French would want a few bits of territory, but 95% or so of the Rhineland basically stays German, though, as I said, initially divided up into three states (this is dictated by the French and won't last-I imagine it as a bit of overreaching on France's part-perhaps the POD could be a bolder Napoleon III)

So anyway-POD: Napoleon III decides, after the Battle of Koniggratz on July 3rd, 1866, that a Prussian-dominated North Germany is not in France's interest (perhaps I could have King Wilhelm overrule Bismarck and press toward Vienna, don't know how plausible that would be). The French assure the Austrians that they are mobilizing for war, leading Austria not to seek peace with Prussia.

-sometime in August-France invades, conquering most of the Rhineland since the Prussian army is off fighting in Austria.

-Late August/September-Prussia brings troops up from Austria to deal with the French, but the French outnumber them and are largely fresh, wheras the Prussians have spent a good part of the year fighting in Austria. The two have a big battle (or several) somewhere in the Rhineland, with the Prussians loosing very badly.

-End of 1866-France hands a peace treaty to Prussia, with something like these terms:
-The Prussian Rhineland will be divided up into two states, the Grand Duchies of Cologne and Trier, and Prussian Westphalia will become independent as well (note, just came up with the names on the fly. They're not going to be that important anyway...).
-All the states annexed by Prussia during the Austro-Prussian war regain their independence.
-Saxony is restored back to its pre-1815 size (I personally think the Saxons would go for this-the Congress of Vienna gave almost half of Saxony to Prussia as punishment for siding with Napoleon, and the Saxons have just come out of a war with Prussia).
-Schleswig and Holstein again become independent states in personal union with Denmark.
-Prussia and its allies rejoin the German confederation, and are forced to pay reparations to Austria and France.

Even before the treaty is signed, Bismark is off to his estates.

In the months after the war has ended, the French maintain troops and advisors in Rhineland/Westphalia (intended to help establish the new Grand Duchies, and leave once Grand Dukes have been found). The prescence of these troops, however, greatly disturbs the British and angers the local population. Britain demands their withdrawal, and France ultimately agrees, but before this can take place...

...in Cologne, an angry crowd of protestors gets into a fight with French soldiers, which gradually escalates. Both sides will ultimately claim the other one shot first, but in the end, twelve Colognians lay dead from French musket fire. Riots break out across the Rhineland and Westphalia, and soon the rioters are waving the old Frankfurt tricolor and demanding a united Germany that can stand against the French.

-France withdrawals its soldiers from the situation, and feeling emboldend, mini-revolutions break out all across Germany. In Berlin, crowds usher out King Wilhelm and replace him with King Frederick III, who, being of a Liberal persuasion himself, is much more ameanable to some of the rebels demands. Prussia gets genuine universal sufferage (that three-class nonsense being abolished) and ministers are responsible to the Parliament as well as the king. Similar events happen elsewhere (I like Wolf Brother's idea of a Hesse-Nassau union. Maybe a Thuringian union too? Also, the two Rhineland Grand Duchies are united). Everywhere, however, there is another key demand of the revolutionaries-electing a pan-German parliament that will establish some kind of a federation strong enough to resist the French. All the new revolutionary regimes commit to this, and elections take place in all the German states except Austria in 1868. The new parliament meets in Frankfurt, and establishes a setup similar to OTL's German empire (German Parliament with a cabinet and Chancellor, free trade, common navy, common foreign policy, common army duirng wartime). The crown of this new empire is offered to Frederik III of Prussia who, unlike his grandfather, eagerly accepts. Britain supports the German union as a counterwieght against France, and because the new Kaiser is married to (IIRC) Queen Victoria's daughter and is known to admire Britain. France is too discredited to do anything short of a military invasion (which Britain sternly warns against) and Austria has its own problems to deal with.

Unlike OTL, TTL's German empire is genuinely democratic and much less Prussian dominated. It also doesn't include Alsace-Lorraine, giving France less reason to hold a permanent grudge, and generally is much less hospitible to the mustachioed Prussian imperialists who pushed it down such a horrible path IOTL.

 

[wolf_brother]

Getting Louis-Napoléon to intervene isn't that difficult; IOTL he hemmed and hawed over the issue before deciding on 5 July mobilize his forces and join with Austria against Prussia, only to change his mind in the middle of the night before the mobilization plans could be published. Hell, the POD could be he's a heavier sleeper that night!

August seems a bit late for the invasion. Jacques Louis Randon, the Minister of War, told Louis-Napoléon and the state council that '80,000 men could be concentrated on the Rhine immediately, and 250,000 in twenty days.' The French could be well into the Rhineland before the Prussians could react.

Otherwise in general agree about the course of the war and its immediate outcome; though I'm still not sure about the Rhenish statelets.

I'm also not sure the 'German Revolution' would begin over French troops occupying the Rhineland. IOTL the Germans stayed in northern France for several months after the end of the Franco-Prussian War occupying the territory until the war reparations were paid. The Paris Commune was hardly a nationalist uprising against the occupying Germans, and the movement never really spread out of Paris northwards - the only other attempted uprising I know of was in Lyon, fairly far south of the battle lines.

Otherwise, once again, generally agree with everything Mirza Khan. However I do have some questions/nitpicks;

I'm not so sure the German crown would be offered to Frederick III; Prussia would be discredited after fighting fellow Germans over the issue of Danish duchies only to be defeated by the French. I think Franz Joseph would be more likely if in a Großdeutsche Lösung; on that note why aren't there elections in Austria in ATL's 1866? The Viennese were at the forefront in many ways of the 1848 German Revolutions and unification movement.

Regardless, for a Kleindeutsche Lösung I'd suggest either Ludwig II of Bavaria, John of Saxony, or the restored George V of Hanover. Although Ludwig would be fun simply for his eccentricities, I think either John or George is more likely; IMHO I lean towards John myself as he'd be seen to be less under French influence - though on the other hand the Saxons had been swept aside by the Prussians, where as the Hanoverians handed the Prussians their only major defeat iirc. So perhaps a toss-up there; none of the Germans state are looking good right now.

Speaking of which, why are the French discredited? I assume because of their withdrawal from the Rhineland follow the outbreak of revolution in Cologne? I'm not sure that'd be enough to discredit them per say... they would have still defeated the North Germans and saved Austria and Denmark. France would still be seen as the (potential?) hegemon of the continent, while Prussia would continue to be remarked upon as 'that little country with so much martial success.' Even with an immediate revolution and German unification French influence would continue to be high in the western German states, especially the Rhenish ones. With France's likely annexation of Luxembourg, either immediately or following William III's as-per-OTL attempt to 'sell' his country to France, combined with France's influence in Italy and her aid in uniting that country, IMHO France's influence would be at its highest in Europe since the Napoleonic period.

On that note, how do you think the Russians react? Alexander II was a liberal-reformer and something of a Germanophile, and might support the new state against the French and Austrians (again if Kleindeutschland); on the other hand I'm not so sure he'd appreciate having the various small German states suddenly uniting into a rather large, rather democratic, empire next door.

Other thoughts; what's the role of Communism in this German Revolution - especially in the Rhine, which was the industrial heartland of Prussia and Germany IOTL. Do we see attempted Volksrepubliken in Cologne, Trier, Bonn, etc? - Or perhaps even in German Bohemia, Prague, the Vltava, and Elde as I understand it were proto-industrial regions for the Austrians; throw in Slavic secessionist movements and you a recipe for conflict.

Sorry for all of the comments, but as you can tell this is a topic that greatly interests me

EDIT: Real quick thought - what exactly are your proposed borders for this German state? Essentially IOTL's German Empire, with all of the German states except for Austria?

 

[Grey Wolf]

IF the Poles revolt in Posen I can see Russia intervening to crush them, regardless of any noises from out of Paris. Its only a few years since Russia put down its own Polish revolt and the scars still run deep.

Would France want to see any of the states brought up a level to be a potential balance to Prussia? Saxony as is said is a good idea - I suppose Sigmaringen could be given to Wurttemburg? Is there anything for Bavaria to pick up? Is any of the old Palatinate under Prussian or Prussian-allied control?

I would think revolutions would have some individual character about them. After 1848 not everyone is wanting to look at pan-Germanism again. So the pan-Germanists are probably going to have to forcibly annex/suppress some "dissident" republics, maybe Bavaria as an example.

Just a few thoughts
Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Mikestone8]

Bavaria had historical claims to a lot of territory on the lower Rhine - Berg, Julich etc. If she is given the lion's share of the Prussian Rhenish Provinces, that raises her to near equality with Prussia and Austria, leaving a German Confederation effectively run by a Triumvirate.

Sounds the kind of elaborate scheme that would appeal to Napoleon III.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Bavaria had historical claims to a lot of territory on the lower Rhine - Berg, Julich etc. If she is given the lion's share of the Prussian Rhenish Provinces, that raises her to near equality with Prussia and Austria, leaving a German Confederation effectively run by a Triumvirate.

Sounds the kind of elaborate scheme that would appeal to Napoleon III.

Ah yes, of course, Berg in the 1790s under a Bavarian scion, tho IIRC his line still exists so he might not be TOO happy but since the monarchies are all being overthrown around him, a union of the two would make sense.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[arctic warrior]

I don't see Denmark accepting both Schleswig and Holstein ITTL; Schleswig would be max but even then the Danish politicians had learned the hard way that as a small state you don't mess with Germany! Not without allies and Denmark did denounce French attempts at joining 1866.
The Danish suggestion would probably be the Prague Peace §5 enacted with Prussian Schleswig-Holstein having a referendum of its affiliation.

 

[Anderman]

I am not sure if the French could simply march into the Rhineland , the Prussian had ca. 40 000 regular men in northern Germany which later moved to the south and the Landwehr must be somewhere too.

 

[Mikestone8]

Ah yes, of course, Berg in the 1790s under a Bavarian scion, tho IIRC his line still exists so he might not be TOO happy but since the monarchies are all being overthrown around him, a union of the two would make sense.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

You sure?

My understanding was that its ruler inherited Bavaria in 1777, and both it and Bavaria (also the Lower Palatinate) passed to the Pfalz-Zweibrucken branch in 1799. If so, there would be no rival Wittelsbach.

Even if there were, however, istr there were a number of cases where minor rulers ceded their petty states to the leading member of their House - eg in 1849 when the Princes of Hohezollern-Hechingen and Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen ceded their South German principlities to the King of Prussia. So it needn't be a fatal obstacle.

 

[Max Sinister]

Some thoughts:

Wouldn't it be a problem that France still has troops in Mexico in 1866?

Also, the Papal States are toast if France joins the war. Don't forget to divert some troops there.

And yes, France might invade the Rhineland, but the bulk of Prussia is another thing, so in the long run, France may get trouble.

What kind of guns did the French have then? Prussia's were definitely stronger than Austria's.

So or so, a six-week war might turn into an earlier WW1. Russia may want to join Prussia and expand at the expense of A-H.

 

[Grey Wolf]

You sure?

My understanding was that its ruler inherited Bavaria in 1777, and both it and Bavaria (also the Lower Palatinate) passed to the Pfalz-Zweibrucken branch in 1799. If so, there would be no rival Wittelsbach.

Even if there were, however, istr there were a number of cases where minor rulers ceded their petty states to the leading member of their House - eg in 1849 when the Princes of Hohezollern-Hechingen and Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen ceded their South German principlities to the King of Prussia. So it needn't be a fatal obstacle.

Oh, I only looked at it briefly when modding Victoria II but my understanding is that the line of Dukes IN Bavaria are the rightful rulers...

Could easily have read it wrong...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[mrmandias]

Every once in a while, someone hits a very plausible route for the world to be a much better place than it is.

Congratulations, you just ruined my day.

Notice I said minor annexations-I suspect the French would want a few bits of territory, but 95% or so of the Rhineland basically stays German, though, as I said, initially divided up into three states (this is dictated by the French and won't last-I imagine it as a bit of overreaching on France's part-perhaps the POD could be a bolder Napoleon III)

So anyway-POD: Napoleon III decides, after the Battle of Koniggratz on July 3rd, 1866, that a Prussian-dominated North Germany is not in France's interest (perhaps I could have King Wilhelm overrule Bismarck and press toward Vienna, don't know how plausible that would be). The French assure the Austrians that they are mobilizing for war, leading Austria not to seek peace with Prussia.

-sometime in August-France invades, conquering most of the Rhineland since the Prussian army is off fighting in Austria.

-Late August/September-Prussia brings troops up from Austria to deal with the French, but the French outnumber them and are largely fresh, wheras the Prussians have spent a good part of the year fighting in Austria. The two have a big battle (or several) somewhere in the Rhineland, with the Prussians loosing very badly.

-End of 1866-France hands a peace treaty to Prussia, with something like these terms:
-The Prussian Rhineland will be divided up into two states, the Grand Duchies of Cologne and Trier, and Prussian Westphalia will become independent as well (note, just came up with the names on the fly. They're not going to be that important anyway...).
-All the states annexed by Prussia during the Austro-Prussian war regain their independence.
-Saxony is restored back to its pre-1815 size (I personally think the Saxons would go for this-the Congress of Vienna gave almost half of Saxony to Prussia as punishment for siding with Napoleon, and the Saxons have just come out of a war with Prussia).
-Schleswig and Holstein again become independent states in personal union with Denmark.
-Prussia and its allies rejoin the German confederation, and are forced to pay reparations to Austria and France.

Even before the treaty is signed, Bismark is off to his estates.

In the months after the war has ended, the French maintain troops and advisors in Rhineland/Westphalia (intended to help establish the new Grand Duchies, and leave once Grand Dukes have been found). The prescence of these troops, however, greatly disturbs the British and angers the local population. Britain demands their withdrawal, and France ultimately agrees, but before this can take place...

...in Cologne, an angry crowd of protestors gets into a fight with French soldiers, which gradually escalates. Both sides will ultimately claim the other one shot first, but in the end, twelve Colognians lay dead from French musket fire. Riots break out across the Rhineland and Westphalia, and soon the rioters are waving the old Frankfurt tricolor and demanding a united Germany that can stand against the French.

-France withdrawals its soldiers from the situation, and feeling emboldend, mini-revolutions break out all across Germany. In Berlin, crowds usher out King Wilhelm and replace him with King Frederick III, who, being of a Liberal persuasion himself, is much more ameanable to some of the rebels demands. Prussia gets genuine universal sufferage (that three-class nonsense being abolished) and ministers are responsible to the Parliament as well as the king. Similar events happen elsewhere (I like Wolf Brother's idea of a Hesse-Nassau union. Maybe a Thuringian union too? Also, the two Rhineland Grand Duchies are united). Everywhere, however, there is another key demand of the revolutionaries-electing a pan-German parliament that will establish some kind of a federation strong enough to resist the French. All the new revolutionary regimes commit to this, and elections take place in all the German states except Austria in 1868. The new parliament meets in Frankfurt, and establishes a setup similar to OTL's German empire (German Parliament with a cabinet and Chancellor, free trade, common navy, common foreign policy, common army duirng wartime). The crown of this new empire is offered to Frederik III of Prussia who, unlike his grandfather, eagerly accepts. Britain supports the German union as a counterwieght against France, and because the new Kaiser is married to (IIRC) Queen Victoria's daughter and is known to admire Britain. France is too discredited to do anything short of a military invasion (which Britain sternly warns against) and Austria has its own problems to deal with.

Unlike OTL, TTL's German empire is genuinely democratic and much less Prussian dominated. It also doesn't include Alsace-Lorraine, giving France less reason to hold a permanent grudge, and generally is much less hospitible to the mustachioed Prussian imperialists who pushed it down such a horrible path IOTL.

 

[Mirza Khan]

Getting Louis-Napoléon to intervene isn't that difficult; IOTL he hemmed and hawed over the issue before deciding on 5 July mobilize his forces and join with Austria against Prussia, only to change his mind in the middle of the night before the mobilization plans could be published. Hell, the POD could be he's a heavier sleeper that night!

August seems a bit late for the invasion. Jacques Louis Randon, the Minister of War, told Louis-Napoléon and the state council that '80,000 men could be concentrated on the Rhine immediately, and 250,000 in twenty days.' The French could be well into the Rhineland before the Prussians could react.

Otherwise in general agree about the course of the war and its immediate outcome; though I'm still not sure about the Rhenish statelets.

I'm also not sure the 'German Revolution' would begin over French troops occupying the Rhineland. IOTL the Germans stayed in northern France for several months after the end of the Franco-Prussian War occupying the territory until the war reparations were paid. The Paris Commune was hardly a nationalist uprising against the occupying Germans, and the movement never really spread out of Paris northwards - the only other attempted uprising I know of was in Lyon, fairly far south of the battle lines.

Otherwise, once again, generally agree with everything Mirza Khan. However I do have some questions/nitpicks;

Again, the French idea is to turn the Rhineland into a couple of small puppet states that would, effectively, be under French military and economic domination. The popular anger against it was at being told "Congratulations, you get to go from living in a world power to living in a French puppet state!" Also, I imagine the protestors as being a small minority until the French shot some of them (which I don't think is that implausible either-no one meant for Kent State to happen, but situations can get out of control)

I'm not so sure the German crown would be offered to Frederick III; Prussia would be discredited after fighting fellow Germans over the issue of Danish duchies only to be defeated by the French. I think Franz Joseph would be more likely if in a Großdeutsche Lösung; on that note why aren't there elections in Austria in ATL's 1866? The Viennese were at the forefront in many ways of the 1848 German Revolutions and unification movement.

Regardless, for a Kleindeutsche Lösung I'd suggest either Ludwig II of Bavaria, John of Saxony, or the restored George V of Hanover. Although Ludwig would be fun simply for his eccentricities, I think either John or George is more likely; IMHO I lean towards John myself as he'd be seen to be less under French influence - though on the other hand the Saxons had been swept aside by the Prussians, where as the Hanoverians handed the Prussians their only major defeat iirc. So perhaps a toss-up there; none of the Germans state are looking good right now.

Well, as for Austria, I figured that unless the Hapsburgs have really, badly lost, they could probably stop their revolution, or at least direct it down a more neutral path. For one thing, the idea of joining Germany is going to cause every non-German nationality in the Empire to have a conniption fit, and this would probably be a good wedge issue, actually for the Austrians to break apart any revolutionary coalition. For another thing, the new Germany probably looks a bit too democratic for the Austrians (and Franz Joseph a bit too Conservative for the revolutionaries).

If Austria does enter the new German empire, I imagine the Czechs can be dragged in with promises of cultural autonomy (thought they certainly won't like it), but everyone else will want out, and the empire has to be divided. This, of course, creates some of its own problems, foremost among them Galicia (looks kind of wierd just attached onto Germany by a narrow appendage, and most of the political elite is Polish and probably wouldn't like that idea anyway. Could make it independent I guess...but I don't think Russia is going to react well AT ALL when they wake up and discover an Independent Kingdom of Not-Poland on their border). Croatia is another problem-the Hungarians will want it, the Croats won't want that...

Basically, I think a Grossdeutschland is certainly possible and would be happy to hear anyone argue for it, but I think kleindeutschland is much more likely.

Also, interesting idea about the King of Hannover. Do you know much about his political leanings? Was he more conservative/liberal?

Speaking of which, why are the French discredited? I assume because of their withdrawal from the Rhineland follow the outbreak of revolution in Cologne? I'm not sure that'd be enough to discredit them per say... they would have still defeated the North Germans and saved Austria and Denmark. France would still be seen as the (potential?) hegemon of the continent, while Prussia would continue to be remarked upon as 'that little country with so much martial success.' Even with an immediate revolution and German unification French influence would continue to be high in the western German states, especially the Rhenish ones. With France's likely annexation of Luxembourg, either immediately or following William III's as-per-OTL attempt to 'sell' his country to France, combined with France's influence in Italy and her aid in uniting that country, IMHO France's influence would be at its highest in Europe since the Napoleonic period.

Well, the part about France being discredited was really only meant to apply to 1866-68, when the Germans are still mad at them for trying to puppetize the Rhineland and then shooting at German civilians. I expect by the 1870's Germans would be happy to treat with France, and one of the points of this is a better German-French relationship.

Though it does occur to me that France is likely going to aquire Luxembourg in this TL, since the German Empire won't have really finished forming until 1868-69 and thus not be in a position to prevent France from buying it in 1867. How important was Luxembourg to German nationalists? Is it something could grow into a major sticking point, like A-L?

On that note, how do you think the Russians react? Alexander II was a liberal-reformer and something of a Germanophile, and might support the new state against the French and Austrians (again if Kleindeutschland); on the other hand I'm not so sure he'd appreciate having the various small German states suddenly uniting into a rather large, rather democratic, empire next door.

Indifferently, I think. I don't think Russia would especially like a United Germany forming, but I don't see them doing anything major to prevent it.

Other thoughts; what's the role of Communism in this German Revolution - especially in the Rhine, which was the industrial heartland of Prussia and Germany IOTL. Do we see attempted Volksrepubliken in Cologne, Trier, Bonn, etc? - Or perhaps even in German Bohemia, Prague, the Vltava, and Elde as I understand it were proto-industrial regions for the Austrians; throw in Slavic secessionist movements and you a recipe for conflict.

Sorry for all of the comments, but as you can tell this is a topic that greatly interests me

EDIT: Real quick thought - what exactly are your proposed borders for this German state? Essentially IOTL's German Empire, with all of the German states except for Austria?

Hmm, hadn't thought Communism. But the idea of say, a mini-civil war in the Rhineland between Communists on the one land and conservatives and liberals on the other does sound interesting. Probably go a bit similar to the Paris commune, except with several of them instead of just one.

And yes, I imagine TTL Germany's borders as being the OTL ones minus A-L.

 

[Mirza Khan]

I don't see Denmark accepting both Schleswig and Holstein ITTL; Schleswig would be max but even then the Danish politicians had learned the hard way that as a small state you don't mess with Germany! Not without allies and Denmark did denounce French attempts at joining 1866.
The Danish suggestion would probably be the Prague Peace §5 enacted with Prussian Schleswig-Holstein having a referendum of its affiliation.

Makes sense, and it helps the TL (with the new German Empire not having to kick the Danes back out of S-H again).

 

[Mirza Khan]

Oh, I only looked at it briefly when modding Victoria II but my understanding is that the line of Dukes IN Bavaria are the rightful rulers...

Could easily have read it wrong...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

According to wikipedia there were two lines of Wittelsbachs floating around, the senior of which ruled Bavaria and the Palatinate.

I think I'll have the French offer the Bavarians the Grand Duchy of Cologne, but then the above-described unpleasantness kicks off before it can be finalized.

One more thing-does anyone know of some good sources on the Franco-Prussian and Austro-Prussian wars? Preferably online, since I'm currently unable to check out anything from my university library.

 

[stevep]

Mirza Khan

One possibility for a noble house to head one of the Rhine principalities the French want to set up. Could they persuade the Oldenburg dynasty to head one of them? [Might mean a change of religion as I think the Rhine was largely catholic]. Then Hanover could absorb Oldenburg, and possibly whatever of S-H that isn't returned to Denmark. The former gives Hanover a far better border rather than looping all the way around Oldenburg and the latter helps it in the north and would cut the Prussian state off from the North Sea. Also a stronger Hanover might mollify Britain, which still has strong links to the state.

One possible problem with you're idea is that I think France was more interested in Belgium than gains from explicit German territory. In fact I think Napoleon III had tried to come to terms with Prussia so that in return for implicit support for their plans to unify Germany France would get Belgium. This of course would not be well accepted in London!

Steve

 

[Mirza Khan]

Mirza Khan

One possibility for a noble house to head one of the Rhine principalities the French want to set up. Could they persuade the Oldenburg dynasty to head one of them? [Might mean a change of religion as I think the Rhine was largely catholic]. Then Hanover could absorb Oldenburg, and possibly whatever of S-H that isn't returned to Denmark. The former gives Hanover a far better border rather than looping all the way around Oldenburg and the latter helps it in the north and would cut the Prussian state off from the North Sea. Also a stronger Hanover might mollify Britain, which still has strong links to the state.

One possible problem with you're idea is that I think France was more interested in Belgium than gains from explicit German territory. In fact I think Napoleon III had tried to come to terms with Prussia so that in return for implicit support for their plans to unify Germany France would get Belgium. This of course would not be well accepted in London!

Steve

I don't see the French intervention as about gaining territory per se so much as nipping Prussia in the bud and ensuring that the Rhineland comes under friendly, controllable powers.

I like the Oldenburg Rhineland idea though. My idea was that during the Revolution the two Rhineland statelets would be united into a Grand Duchy/Kingdom of the Rhineland, with a Kingdom of Westphalia as well. Perhaps I can have the Oldenburgs wind up trading their domains to Hannover for either Rhineland or Westpalia-it certainly would make Hannover's borders more sensible.

Speaking of Hannover, I'm leaning on them for German Emperor. I think that, ITTL, the British will like the idea of a united Germany to prevent France from dominating Europe, and the Hannoverians, with all their links to Britain, would make the whole thing even more appealing for the British. German liberals, I think, would also like the idea of a British-linked-and presumably British-style-monarchy. (Plus, as Wolf Brother mentioned, the Hannoverians did manage to hand Prussia one of its few defeats in the Austro-Prussian war).

 

[wolf_brother]

Also, interesting idea about the King of Hannover. Do you know much about his political leanings? Was he more conservative/liberal?

George V was a bit of an autocrat, frequently clashing with the Hanoverian parliament; for example during the war the parliament had wished to maintain a line of armed neutrality but George threw in the Hanoverian's lot with the Austrians against Prussia. With that being said though he was a liberal in the sense that he believed in reform (from above), tolerated the parliament, and supported civil liberties and such. Also much like the Saxe-Coburg and Gothas George V had a large domestic (bourgeoisie) family with his wife Marie of Saxe-Altenburg.

If you choose to go that route though I would note George had lost the use of both his eyes as a child. There are the obvious disadvantages to this; however he could fall into the 'returning King' / Fisher-King mythical archetype, with all that that implies.

Though it does occur to me that France is likely going to aquire Luxembourg in this TL, since the German Empire won't have really finished forming until 1868-69 and thus not be in a position to prevent France from buying it in 1867. How important was Luxembourg to German nationalists? Is it something could grow into a major sticking point, like A-L?

I think Luxembourg could be a talking-point for German nationalists, but honestly it was only loosely affiliated with the German Confederation IOTL; it was primarily considered apart of the Netherlands, especially by 1866. You'd see more Dutch irredentism than you would German, IMHO.

 

[Valdemar II]

I don't see Denmark accepting both Schleswig and Holstein ITTL; Schleswig would be max but even then the Danish politicians had learned the hard way that as a small state you don't mess with Germany! Not without allies and Denmark did denounce French attempts at joining 1866.
The Danish suggestion would probably be the Prague Peace §5 enacted with Prussian Schleswig-Holstein having a referendum of its affiliation.

I'm not so sure, remember this is only two year after the loss, not decades later, and before Prussia really became the 800 pound gorilla. In fact I could easily see the Danes pushing a Eider border, while either establish Holstein-Lauenburg as a dynastic alliance, let the Austrians keep it or letting the Sönderburgs get it.