German Republic in 1848

What would have happened if the Revolution of 1848 succeeded in the way that Germany was unified as a republic (like the left wanted)?

- Better relations with France?
- Worse relations with the Habsburgs empire? Some kind of pressure for incorporating German Austria?
- Which model of republic woud be the more likely? Federal? Unitary like in France? A kind of cantonal confederatio like the Swiss one?
- What kind of foreign policy? Neutral? Imperialist? A kind of 'over-Bismarck' with the aim of incorporation other territories but in a peacefully way?
 
What would have happened if the Revolution of 1848 succeeded in the way that Germany was unified as a republic (like the left wanted)?

- Better relations with France?
- Worse relations with the Habsburgs empire? Some kind of pressure for incorporating German Austria?
- Which model of republic woud be the more likely? Federal? Unitary like in France? A kind of cantonal confederatio like the Swiss one?
- What kind of foreign policy? Neutral? Imperialist? A kind of 'over-Bismarck' with the aim of incorporation other territories but in a peacefully way?


Let us assume that a "lesser-Germany-solution (without Austria/Bohemia)" would be the outcome - i know not very probable ,

(actually in IOTL the Prussian king refused to accept this)

than:
- Prussian King would be the German Emperor but would have only very limited power, similar to the English King IOTL
- some kind of federal elements, i guess more unitary than the German Empire 1871-1918 IOTL but less than Britain/France
- definitely pressure towards the Austria Empire (where the Emperor still would be powerfull)
- I doubt that relations with France would be better; on the contrary: a German constitutional monarchy/Republic would try to incorporate Austria/Bohemia ==> French/Austrian alliance would be probable in that case, and recall: in Alsace there still would be a German speaking minority ==> a German Republic would be more alluring for the Alsacians than the semi-autocratic prussian ruled German Empire was IOTL
- foreign policy: a) definitely nationalist!!!, i guess wars would be quite probable because there were quite a lot of "unliberated" German minorities out there - in Danmark, France, Austria, Bohemia etc.
b) probably imperialist too (just as Britain and France IOTL)
 
THis is going to be hugely deperndent on exactly how it comes about, I'm afraid. German politics was complicated. However, I think there are a few things that can be said.

- Relations with the Habsburg Empire - if the Republicans get their way, there will be no Habsburg Empire. The fact that one still exists means that the Republic is to some degree or other kleindeutsch. That will make things difficult in all kinds of ways. With Austria integrated into the German Republic, on the other hand, Hungary is not likely to stay Habsburg or an Empire.

IOTL it was mainly Russian troops that kept the Habsbnurgs in power. Do you see them intervening ITTL? in that case they'll most likely prop up both Austria and Prussia (the Holy League), which suggests the German Republic ultimately will be a small rump state (can it include the Rhine Province? I think not, but who knows). It will need a protector. I'd say France.

If Prussia is part of the republic, but Austria is not, it will be powerful enough to stand on its own two feet, and relations with Austria are bound to be fraught. Of course Austria's in a bad position in the long run here, but in the short term that doesn't matter that much. It might even come to an accommodation with Russia on the basis of imperial hegemony and be viewed as an 'outpost of Tartarism in Europe' or somesuch.


Relations with France are bound to be better that IOTL because worse is hard to imagine. That doesn't mean good, though. A German Republic created in 1848 is going top immediately grow all kinds of irredentist claims, and with its centre in the southwest, Alsace-Lorraine will be the most acutely felt. A weak state will have little choice but to become a French or British satellite, more likely French, but resentment will rankle. A strong one is going to define itself in no small measure against France. If there is no war, this tension may eventually cool off and lead to genuinely cordial relations, but not immediately.

The structure will be federal. There is no other way. German political tradition throughout the modern era was federal. A centralised state would not be accepted, even if imposed by the bayonet (and a Republican state can't really do that). The likeliest outcome will be a remodelled and upgraded Bund with a meaningful army, enhanced legislative powers, and a federal head of state.

Foreign policy could be almost anything. A republic that feels strong is liable to start pushing around its neighbours (Denmark over Schleswig-Holstein, potentially Switzerland over joining, Belgium and the Netherlands over German minorioties, France if it's feeling suicidal, and whatever the eastern border looks like, potentially anyone with a German minority there, too). German Republicanism was strongly nationalistic, and Germans were a very widely spread out ethnicity with plenty of options for conflict. It might also decide earlier than OTL that colonies were a necessity to settle its surplus population (the liberals loved the navy, and many had colonial ambitions). It's unlikely to ever get anywhere, but the implications for relations with Britain could be worrying. At the same time, without the Prussian government forcing a strong army, the parliamentary appropriations are more likely to focus on defensive capabilities, meaning that the actual warfighting capacity will be limited. I don't see the German Republic ever playing in the same league militarily as Wilhelmine Germany.
 
- foreign policy: a) definitely nationalist!!!, i guess wars would be quite probable because there were quite a lot of "unliberated" German minorities out there - in Danmark, France, Austria, Bohemia etc.
b) probably imperialist too (just as Britain and France IOTL)

So, there is a point here that I would like to know better.

I have read that one of the reasons that prevented Austria to join an hypothetic German unified state is that German nationalists did not want to incorporate non-German territories and conditioned the admission of Austria to the exclusion of its large non-German territories, something that the Habsburgs would not going to accept in any case.
German minorities were widespread in Europe at the time (southern Denmark, France, Austria, Bohemia, southern Transylvania, some areas of Hungary, even in the Baltic Russia) and nationalists might want to incorporate many of them. However, this led to some dilemma: if Bohemia were to be incorporated, it means that the Czechs might be too (partition of Bohemia was unlikely then), the same for Slovenia etc etc.
Conclusion: the incorporation of German minorities to the republic should imply the incorporation of their associated non-German populations, something that German nationalists did not want. Solution??
 
So, there is a point here that I would like to know better.

I have read that one of the reasons that prevented Austria to join an hypothetic German unified state is that German nationalists did not want to incorporate non-German territories and conditioned the admission of Austria to the exclusion of its large non-German territories, something that the Habsburgs would not going to accept in any case.

Well yes, huge national minorities - just as within the Austrian Empire - were not compatible with the idea of a "German national state".

And recall: Neither Prussia wanted to become the "subordinate" of Austria, nor wanted Austria to become the "subordinate" of Prussia.

I guess one big obstacle was the rivalry between Prussia and Austria. With only one major power within the German populated areas, the "unification" might worked out more easyly. Let us assume the Prussia would have lost the 7-years-war vs. Austria and its allies (which was quite close). This event might had solved this problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Years'_War


Another problem: Neither the Prussian king, nor the Austrian Emperor wanted to lose their status as "rulers by grace of God" and becoming a subordinate to a German parliament.

Conclusion: the incorporation of German minorities to the republic should imply the incorporation of their associated non-German populations, something that German nationalists did not want. Solution??

Obviously it was impossible to incorporate all, or at least most of the German speaking areas without incorporating non-German populations. The main obstacle was the "national rag rug" in Eastern Europe/Bohemia/Prussia.

In Bohemia for example the big cities were populated mainly by Germans, rural areas in cetral Bohemia by Chechs. Even if you wanted to draw an "ethnically just" line - it was impossible.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/Europe_(1896),_ethnic_groups.jpg

I guess the most feasible long term compromise - if there was a much powerful Prussia or a much weaker Austria - would have been the incorporation of Bohemia and Austria, but without the incorporation of other parts of the Austrian Empire + the incorporation of the Eastern parts of Prussia.

There were also Austrian plans to forge a huge - Austrian dominated -empire in 1850. Austria simply wasnt powerful enough to "persuade" the other German states to become its subordinates.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Großösterreich
 
There were also Austrian plans to forge a huge - Austrian dominated -empire in 1850. Austria simply wasnt powerful enough to "persuade" the other German states to become its subordinates.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Großösterreich

Well, I think Prussia fits better than Austria in the concepts that German nationalists defensed at the Parliament of 1848. Even if Republicans would have succeeded, Prussia would have survived much better the depart of the Hohenzollerns while Austria-Hungary was very likely to not survive a republican transformation (maybe the Habsburgs could have stayed in Budapest?).

Regarding minorities, probably the German Republic could have incorporated not-fully-German territories like Bohemia (with Moravia?) or the Krain (Slovenia), Alsace-Lorraine and so. I'd like to figure if they would have incorporated some exclaves like the Transylvanian Saxony if they could.

Another point I'd like to know is if German nationalists of mid-19th century considered some approach to Switzerland. As a monarchy it was quite hard to think, but if they were a republic (maybe in the same style as the Swiss one) it could be less challenging; the same for the Benelux countries.
 
Regarding minorities, probably the German Republic could have incorporated not-fully-German territories like Bohemia (with Moravia?) or the Krain (Slovenia), Alsace-Lorraine and so. I'd like to figure if they would have incorporated some exclaves like the Transylvanian Saxony if they could.

If they could, maybe they would:D
I guess Transylvanian Saxony was too far away, but a strong German Republic maybe would demand autonomy for them within a Hungarian Republic. IOTL the Austrian Emperor after 1867 just didnt care about them because he did not want to annoy the Hungarians.


Another point I'd like to know is if German nationalists of mid-19th century considered some approach to Switzerland. As a monarchy it was quite hard to think, but if they were a republic (maybe in the same style as the Swiss one) it could be less challenging; the same for the Benelux countries.

Luxemburg actualy was a German speaking country - so an incorporation sooner or later was possible. Belgium and the Netherlands however werent considerd being German any more.

The Swiss were quite happy within the borders of Switzerland. Why change it?
I guess only if a very aggressive France tried to conquer Switzerland (not probable at all), than maybe the Swiss asked the "big brother" in Germany for help and a "unification" with Germany may occured. Without a war (or the danger of a war) i guess Switzerland would still exist in your scenario.
 
Holy Sh*t... I never knew such plans existed. Is there any way in which they could become reality?

Sure if Austria (and its allies) had won the Seven Years war against Prussia (and its allies) 1756–63.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Years'_War

Or maybe even if Austria had crushed Prussia in the Austro-Prussian war 1866.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austro-Prussian_War

Although in the later scenario France/Napoleon III probably would bite off some parts of Germany prior to his permission ( Austria becoming the hegemon within Germany).
 
Another point I'd like to know is if German nationalists of mid-19th century considered some approach to Switzerland. As a monarchy it was quite hard to think, but if they were a republic (maybe in the same style as the Swiss one) it could be less challenging;
The Swiss weren't German. Speaking German doesn't make you German.

the same for the Benelux countries.
The Dutch and Belgians weren't German either. Luxemburg is a theoretical possibility, as would be Dutch Limburg, who were both part of the German Confederation. I don't think they would join Germany. in the case of limburg i doubt the Dutch would accept it, in the case of luxemburg, i don't think they would want to. As i said, speaking German doesn't make you German. In 1914, when Germany invaded Luxemburg, the Luxemburgians realy didn't like to be forced to become German. I am not certain when the seperate Luxemburgian nationality was formed. It wouldn't surprise it already existed in 1848. the Luxemburgians were pretty happy having a Dutch king.
 

Sulemain

Banned
A semi-crazy idea: Have the position of Emperor be a much more ceremonial one, which rotates between the Hapsburgs and the Hohenzollern every six months. The Kingdoms of Hungary, Bohemia, etc, are indpendent states in personal union with the Archduchy of Austria (but not the Empire itself). The German Imperial Federation is a Greater Germany, but it maintains the Hapsburgs as a predominant family outside it.
 
The Swiss weren't German. Speaking German doesn't make you German.

That was not the vision in 19th century. Typical 19th century nationalism considered that every community that speak a language or even a group of them (remember pan-Germanists, pan-Slavists etc.) belonged to nation a, b or c.
And German Swiss were and are German, but as they lived and live a lot better in his own 'country' (by known reasons) than in Germany or Austria, they are very very Swiss and little little German. If someday their country turned to be a kind of European Burundi, I'm pretty sure they will call to Berlin's door as if they were the Germanest among the Germans.

The Dutch and Belgians weren't German either. Luxemburg is a theoretical possibility, as would be Dutch Limburg, who were both part of the German Confederation. I don't think they would join Germany. in the case of limburg i doubt the Dutch would accept it, in the case of luxemburg, i don't think they would want to. As i said, speaking German doesn't make you German. In 1914, when Germany invaded Luxemburg, the Luxemburgians realy didn't like to be forced to become German. I am not certain when the seperate Luxemburgian nationality was formed. It wouldn't surprise it already existed in 1848. the Luxemburgians were pretty happy having a Dutch king.

I know, but some of the 19th century German nationalists were also pan-Germanists that conceived a broader concept of German nation that included other close Germanic peoples like the Dutch. This view also existed in the Dutch side, but after-1860/70s events it became increasingly unpopular (obviously Dutch did not want to be merged into that Prussian/German Empire; things could have been different if it had been a democratic (con)federation). Same for Belgium and Luxembourg.
 

Sulemain

Banned
All the German Swiss I've talked to emphasis how very different there history has been from Germany's, and from the Germanies before that.
 
Given that the republican faction was only a rather small minority among the members of the 1848 national assembly a republic was quite out of reach, especially since, unlike in France, where the revolutionaries had to get rid of just one king to proclaim a republic, in Germany it would have been some 30 princes, a couple of them even quite popular amongst their subjects. An arrangement that would have come closest to a republic would have been a Confederation without a monarchical head of state, possibly with a presidium and an imperial vicar at it's helm instead, along the lines of the uptime EU. But the local monarchs in the different states would have remained on their thrones.
 
Given that the republican faction was only a rather small minority among the members of the 1848 national assembly a republic was quite out of reach, especially since, unlike in France, where the revolutionaries had to get rid of just one king to proclaim a republic, in Germany it would have been some 30 princes, a couple of them even quite popular amongst their subjects. An arrangement that would have come closest to a republic would have been a Confederation without a monarchical head of state, possibly with a presidium and an imperial vicar at it's helm instead, along the lines of the uptime EU. But the local monarchs in the different states would have remained on their thrones.

It was just a matter of kicking out the Hohenzollerns. Once Prussia would have turned into a republic, the others would have fallen sooner than later.
I know it was not the most likely scenario. It maybe requires that the revolution went harsher in Prussia or that the king died just right then.
 
It was just a matter of kicking out the Hohenzollerns. Once Prussia would have turned into a republic, the others would have fallen sooner than later.
I know it was not the most likely scenario. It maybe requires that the revolution went harsher in Prussia or that the king died just right then.

And that the Czar is willing to just watch that happen. Remember, Russia has an alliance with the Hohenzollern to stop exactly that kind of thing. Yes, Prussia going Republican could precipitate a Republican Germany, but the likelihood is tiny.
 
Considering the Great Powers' attitudes towards the revolutions of 1848, I doubt that any country would support a republican Germany, except perhaps the future nation of Italy.
 

dead_wolf

Banned
A German republic emerging out of 1848 is a fairly low probability, unless you can somehow work some magic with someone like Hecker or Struve, and even then it's going to be limited to the Rhineland, if at all.
 
That was not the vision in 19th century. Typical 19th century nationalism considered that every community that speak a language or even a group of them (remember pan-Germanists, pan-Slavists etc.) belonged to nation a, b or c.
And German Swiss were and are German, but as they lived and live a lot better in his own 'country' (by known reasons) than in Germany or Austria, they are very very Swiss and little little German. If someday their country turned to be a kind of European Burundi, I'm pretty sure they will call to Berlin's door as if they were the Germanest among the Germans.



I know, but some of the 19th century German nationalists were also pan-Germanists that conceived a broader concept of German nation that included other close Germanic peoples like the Dutch. This view also existed in the Dutch side, but after-1860/70s events it became increasingly unpopular (obviously Dutch did not want to be merged into that Prussian/German Empire; things could have been different if it had been a democratic (con)federation). Same for Belgium and Luxembourg.
The Dutch weren't German since 1648 (actualy I would say somewhere between 1600 and 1648) and the Swiss didn't consider themselves German in the Middle Ages. The same is true for Belgium, but I am not entirely sure when they started to consider themselves not German anymore, but I would say around the same time as the Dutch, even though they were still part of the HRE. The only way for those countries to become part of Germany is for Germany to invade them.

The Swiss aren't German. As I said Speaking German doesn't make you German, even in the 19th century. To be fair, there might have been some German nationalists who would consider the Swiss German, but the Swiss didn't. The rest of the world didn't and since there were no serious attempts to include Switserland (or at least German speaking Switserland) in Germany, I think most German nationalists didn't consider the Swiss German either.
 
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