What if German Prince Wilhelm (later German Kaiser Wilhelm II in our TL) dies either in the late 1870s or in 1880-1881 (before Crown Prince Wilhelm is conceived)? For the record, this death can occur as either the result of some illness or due to some accidents (such as Wilhelm severely hitting his head as a result of an accidental fall down the stairs).
Anyway, this would result in Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becoming the new heir presumptive to the German throne. Indeed, here are my own thoughts on this:
-Heinrich would be less influenced by militarism than Wilhelm was in our TL both due to his lack of crippled arm and due to him being less influenced by Bismarck (since he wouldn't have become the heir apparent until his teens).
-In turn, this would result in a smaller influence for both the warmongers/militarists and the Junkers in the German government starting from 1888 (which is when Heinrich will become the German Kaiser).
-Unlike Wilhelm, Heinrich would be more willing to cooperate with the Social Democrats as opposed to shunning them; indeed, I could see Heinrich--being influenced by the legacy of his liberal parents--gradually giving more and more deference to the German Reichstag (while still nominally keeping his powers, of course)--such as by firing his Chancellors whenever the Reichstag will pass a vote of no-confidence against them.
-There would be no Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL; rather, Heinrich would conclude that it is a useless endeavor considering that Britain + France + Russia can easily blockade Germany regardless of just how much Germany builds. Rather, this money is going to be used to improve the German Army (and later, the German Air Force as well). Plus, Heinrich is going to be less impetuous than Wilhelm was in our TL and thus will be less likely to get pushed around by strong personalities such as von Bulow and Tirpitz.
-The Schlieffen Plan is likely to get thrown out by Heinrich in this TL; after all, Heinrich would probably listen to the advice of Moltke the Elder in his farewell speech in 1890 and view total victory in future wars as brash and unrealistic--thus eliminating the need to invade Belgium in order to quickly defeat France.
-Remembering Bismarck's advice about launching preventative war being akin to committing suicide due to a fear of death, Heinrich is likely to restrain Austria-Hungary more than Wilhelm did in 1914 in our TL.
-Heinrich might focus more on improving agriculture in Germany and in Austria-Hungary in order to reduce the damage that any British blockade of Germany might do; however, I am unsure just how successful something such as this would actually be.
-With no Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL, Kaiser Heinrich might very well aggressively focus on developing modern technology for Germany and especially for Germany's military; after all, such technology could ensure that Germany will not lose a future Great War in Europe.
-If Bismarck will know his place, Heinrich won't fire him; however, if Bismarck still advocates using force to crush the Socialists in 1890 and doesn't restrain himself afterwards, Heinrich certainly fires Bismarck just like Wilhelm did in our TL. However, due to his likely stronger personality, Heinrich will probably be less pushed around by future Chancellors than Wilhelm was--thus ensuring that blunders such as the 1905 Morocco Crisis--as well as stupid statements such as the 1900 Huns speech--won't happen in this TL.
-Due to Heinrich restraining Austria-Hungary more, WWI is likely either delayed or outright prevented in this TL; however, could Russia and France start WWI in 1917 in this TL if Austria-Hungary implodes during this time as a result of a Hungarian secession attempt? Any thoughts on this?
Anyway, what exactly do you think about all of this? Also, what exactly are your own thoughts on this scenario of mine?
