German Prince Wilhelm (later Kaiser Wilhelm II in our TL) dies in the late 1870s

CaliGuy

Banned
What if German Prince Wilhelm (later German Kaiser Wilhelm II in our TL) dies either in the late 1870s or in 1880-1881 (before Crown Prince Wilhelm is conceived)? For the record, this death can occur as either the result of some illness or due to some accidents (such as Wilhelm severely hitting his head as a result of an accidental fall down the stairs).

Anyway, this would result in Wilhelm's younger brother Heinrich becoming the new heir presumptive to the German throne. Indeed, here are my own thoughts on this:

-Heinrich would be less influenced by militarism than Wilhelm was in our TL both due to his lack of crippled arm and due to him being less influenced by Bismarck (since he wouldn't have become the heir apparent until his teens).
-In turn, this would result in a smaller influence for both the warmongers/militarists and the Junkers in the German government starting from 1888 (which is when Heinrich will become the German Kaiser).
-Unlike Wilhelm, Heinrich would be more willing to cooperate with the Social Democrats as opposed to shunning them; indeed, I could see Heinrich--being influenced by the legacy of his liberal parents--gradually giving more and more deference to the German Reichstag (while still nominally keeping his powers, of course)--such as by firing his Chancellors whenever the Reichstag will pass a vote of no-confidence against them.
-There would be no Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL; rather, Heinrich would conclude that it is a useless endeavor considering that Britain + France + Russia can easily blockade Germany regardless of just how much Germany builds. Rather, this money is going to be used to improve the German Army (and later, the German Air Force as well). Plus, Heinrich is going to be less impetuous than Wilhelm was in our TL and thus will be less likely to get pushed around by strong personalities such as von Bulow and Tirpitz.
-The Schlieffen Plan is likely to get thrown out by Heinrich in this TL; after all, Heinrich would probably listen to the advice of Moltke the Elder in his farewell speech in 1890 and view total victory in future wars as brash and unrealistic--thus eliminating the need to invade Belgium in order to quickly defeat France.
-Remembering Bismarck's advice about launching preventative war being akin to committing suicide due to a fear of death, Heinrich is likely to restrain Austria-Hungary more than Wilhelm did in 1914 in our TL.
-Heinrich might focus more on improving agriculture in Germany and in Austria-Hungary in order to reduce the damage that any British blockade of Germany might do; however, I am unsure just how successful something such as this would actually be.
-With no Anglo-German naval arms race in this TL, Kaiser Heinrich might very well aggressively focus on developing modern technology for Germany and especially for Germany's military; after all, such technology could ensure that Germany will not lose a future Great War in Europe.
-If Bismarck will know his place, Heinrich won't fire him; however, if Bismarck still advocates using force to crush the Socialists in 1890 and doesn't restrain himself afterwards, Heinrich certainly fires Bismarck just like Wilhelm did in our TL. However, due to his likely stronger personality, Heinrich will probably be less pushed around by future Chancellors than Wilhelm was--thus ensuring that blunders such as the 1905 Morocco Crisis--as well as stupid statements such as the 1900 Huns speech--won't happen in this TL.
-Due to Heinrich restraining Austria-Hungary more, WWI is likely either delayed or outright prevented in this TL; however, could Russia and France start WWI in 1917 in this TL if Austria-Hungary implodes during this time as a result of a Hungarian secession attempt? Any thoughts on this?

Anyway, what exactly do you think about all of this? Also, what exactly are your own thoughts on this scenario of mine? :)
 
I see on this TL that Heinrich is more likely to be influenced by both his liberal parents. How old would Heinrich be when he inherits the throne from his already ill father Frederick III in 1888? Also, I often read about the rocky love/hate relationship between Wilhelm II and his British Royal Family relatives. However I have read very little about the relationship Heinrich had with his grandmother Queen Victoria, or his uncle Bertie (Edward VII), or his cousin George V.

If they were amicable or even affectionate, how might this influence an ATL relationship between the British and German Empires?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I see on this TL that Heinrich is more likely to be influenced by both his liberal parents. How old would Heinrich be when he inherits the throne from his already ill father Frederick III in 1888?

He would be 25--almost 26--years old at that point in time.

Also, I often read about the rocky love/hate relationship between Wilhelm II and his British Royal Family relatives. However I have read very little about the relationship Heinrich had with his grandmother Queen Victoria, or his uncle Bertie (Edward VII), or his cousin George V.

If they were amicable or even affectionate, how might this influence an ATL relationship between the British and German Empires?

Frankly, I doubt that this in itself would make too much of a difference here; after all, Britain's monarchs don't appear to have been very powerful at this point in time.
 
He would be 25--almost 26--years old at that point in time.



Frankly, I doubt that this in itself would make too much of a difference here; after all, Britain's monarchs don't appear to have been very powerful at this point in time.
That is true however, they do have the right to give advice, as well as give support. The rocky relationship between Edward VII and his nephew Wilhelm II had to play a part in supporting the British governments cautious attitude toward Germany. But in part it was also Wilhelm's attitude toward his uncle and the rivalry he created with a naval arms race. If Heinrich has a better relationship with his uncle, (whom his mother was close to,) his attitude on the matters that effected his brother with their British relations might take a more amicable course.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That is true however, they do have the right to give advice, as well as give support. The rocky relationship between Edward VII and his nephew Wilhelm II had to play a part in supporting the British governments cautious attitude toward Germany. But in part it was also Wilhelm's attitude toward his uncle and the rivalry he created with a naval arms race. If Heinrich has a better relationship with his uncle, (whom his mother was close to,) his attitude on the matters that effected his brother with their British relations might take a more amicable course.
Agreed to some extent; however, the crucial question here might be how much the lack of an Anglo-German naval arms race as well as the lack of other provocative moves on Germany's part will improve Anglo-German relations in this TL.
 
Agreed to some extent; however, the crucial question here might be how much the lack of an Anglo-German naval arms race as well as the lack of other provocative moves on Germany's part will improve Anglo-German relations in this TL.
So true. But remember, the amount of influence over government decisions in the German Empire by the Emperor is more so than that of the British monarchs. So the personal relationship of an Emperor Heinrich with his British relatives may steer him away from some of the provocative moves made by his older brother in real time.
 
Germany being warmongers for building themselves a fleet equal to their status as a great power is a wonderfully successful bit of British propaganda.
 
So who could he marry? This is before he marries Irene of Hesse, so there could be a chance to avoid further introduction of hemophilia into his children.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Germany being warmongers for building themselves a fleet equal to their status as a great power is a wonderfully successful bit of British propaganda.
Perhaps; however, the fact of the matter is that this was a waste of money for Germany which was better spent elsewhere--such as on (improving) the German Army.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
So who could he marry? This is before he marries Irene of Hesse, so there could be a chance to avoid further introduction of hemophilia into his children.
Yes; however, considering that Irene's younger sister Alix married Russian Tsar Nicholas II, Irene would still be an eligible--indeed, perhaps even likely--bride for Kaiser Heinrich.
 
Perhaps; however, the fact of the matter is that this was a waste of money for Germany which was better spent elsewhere--such as on (improving) the German Army.
Germany as a great power needed a navy worth its salt, the worth of the Kreigsmarine is often under appreciated, it was scary enough that the British couldn't simply bully the Germans anymore and their isn't must incentive to improve your army when it's the single most fearsome army on the planet.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Germany as a great power needed a navy worth its salt, the worth of the Kreigsmarine is often under appreciated, it was scary enough that the British couldn't simply bully the Germans anymore

Actually, the British were able to "bully" the Germans with their successful blockade of Germany during WWI.

and their isn't must incentive to improve your army when it's the single most fearsome army on the planet.

When Russia has a lot of potential, though, it's certainly better to be on one's toes.
 
Germany as a great power needed a navy worth its salt, the worth of the Kreigsmarine is often under appreciated, it was scary enough that the British couldn't simply bully the Germans anymore and their isn't must incentive to improve your army when it's the single most fearsome army on the planet.
While a navy to match their status as great power makes sense I think Germany was already on the path to becoming the greatest power so ensuring they could do even better against France and Russia(their true enemies, without them Britain couldn't really do anything serious) and investing in internal production, especially of food, and infrastructure linking them to their allies and neutral countries that couldn't be cut as easily or at all would be the superior strategy.

Might leave them in a worse position in the short-term but once they defeat France and Russia Germany basically wins everything forever.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
While a navy to match their status as great power makes sense I think Germany was already on the path to becoming the greatest power so ensuring they could do even better against France and Russia(their true enemies, without them Britain couldn't really do anything serious) and investing in internal production, especially of food, and infrastructure linking them to their allies and neutral countries that couldn't be cut as easily or at all would be the superior strategy.

Might leave them in a worse position in the short-term but once they defeat France and Russia Germany basically wins everything forever.
Completely agreed; honestly, building a large Navy is only going to further increase the odds of Britain allying with France and Russia (and let's face it, their navies combined would destroy Germany regardless of just how much Germany expands its own navy) while ensuring that they will have less money to spend on more important things such as their Army (and later, their Air Force as well).
 
Actually, the British were able to "bully" the Germans with their successful blockade of Germany during WWI.



When Russia has a lot of potential, though, it's certainly better to be on one's toes.
That "bullying" isn't anywhere close to what they had to put up with before and Russia does have a lot of potential more that Germany does in fact, which why Germany was right when it concluded the answer was to crush them before they reached that potential
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That "bullying" isn't anywhere close to what they had to put up with before

So, what exactly did they have to put up with before?

and Russia does have a lot of potential more that Germany does in fact, which why Germany was right when it concluded the answer was to crush them before they reached that potential

Yes; correct! However, had Germany invested even more money in its army and air force (and also implemented universal conscription) in the pre-WWI years--and had Germany also avoided using the Schlieffen Plan and antagonizing Britain in the pre-WWI years--then Germany might have actually won World War I!
 
So, what exactly did they have to put up with before?



Yes; correct! However, had Germany invested even more money in its army and air force (and also implemented universal conscription) in the pre-WWI years--and had Germany also avoided using the Schlieffen Plan and antagonizing Britain in the pre-WWI years--then Germany might have actually won World War I!
The British threatening to bombard their ports at the slightest provocation
the Germans would have secured a strategic victory had they kept out the Americans.
 
As to when Wilhelm "passes away", the most plausible time I can think of is during the outbreak of diphtheria in Berlin, 1879, which killed his brother, Waldemar. They could both end up dead of diphtheria, or Wilhelm could even end up dying instead of Waldemar. That might create an interesting dynamic between Heinrich and his mother, since Waldemar was supposedly Victoria, Princess Royal's favourite son.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
The British threatening to bombard their ports at the slightest provocation

When exactly? Also, source, please!

the Germans would have secured a strategic victory had they kept out the Americans.

Yes; correct--specifically had they not only kept out the Americans, but also ensured that the U.S. will not provide any more loans to Britain.
 
When exactly? Also, source, please!



Yes; correct--specifically had they not only kept out the Americans, but also ensured that the U.S. will not provide any more loans to Britain.
Can't give you source but it happened during the boer war

And no even with American loans without American entry the Germans win strategically even if they don't tactically.
 
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