What would the internal political situation have been in Germany if WW1 never happened?
I agree with miketr and the excellent Monty Burns.
Without WW1-there would probably be a paralyzing power-struggle in the 1910s between the political parties which represent about 75% of the electorate (Social Democrats, the Catholic "Centrum" and the liberal "Fortschrittlichen") and the old elites at the Court and in the armed forces.
This struggle, which had actually already begun by 1914, would be about two key issues:
- the Prussian voting system ("Dreiklassenwahlrecht") which was based on taxpaying and very much favoured high incomes
-the right to pick the Reichskanzler as head of government which was still the Kaiser's right
If Prussia adopted the system of the Reichstag general elections, it would stop being the last political harbor of the conservative parties. (This measure was announced in OTL 1917).
If the Reichskanzler has to be confirmed by a parliamentary majority, Germany would have become a full instead of a semi-constitutional monarchy with the Kaiser on his way to being a mere figurehead (a role Wilhelm II would actually have been perfect for!) instead of a main
political factor.
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Would there be violence about these issues? I doubt it.
These points would be discussed, debated and so on. But there wouldn't be the so called "Grosse Kladderadatsch" (big crash). The SPD was no revolutionary party any more whereas the Communists hadn't yet left it. So there is little potential for violence from the left side.
As to the other side, they could simply deny anything and sit on their priviledges and on the executive, maybe ignore the Reichstag à la the early Bismarck.
What might such a constitutional crisis look like? General strike? Walk-out of most members of the Reichstag?
What could the army and Wilhelm II do if they try to fight the status quo?
There was not yet a concept for a totalitarian state, and without the experience of the World War, there would be little understanding
for such measures within peacetime in a Germany which saw itself as progressive, liberal and prosperous. Adjusting the political system to the one in Russia would find little support outside of the nobility and some political generals maybe.
Even after 1848, when the Prussian king put down the revolution violently, Prussia was more liberal afterwards than beforehands.
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What I predict would be a long political struggle, like a long match of tug-of-war.
The majority parties will organize their co-operation (there had been strong tendences to start doing prior to 1914), and fight for little pieces of power in exchange for rising military budgets.
This is basically the situation of 1912-14.
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@loughery
I generally agree with your assesssment.
A word on Wilhelm II. He was not as firmly in the saddle as we often think. He had lost much of his credibility due to several affairs and his ability to rule was questioned increasingly prior to the war.
His stance on using the army in internal struggles such as strikes is ambivalent. An effort to do so without an open provocation might stall before orders get out to the units - and an abdication enforced.
I doubt, though, that the Christmas truce came close to derailing the war. Christmas and non-Christmas-days are a different thing, and if it means that the German army was not realiable, then the same must be said about the British and French.
Also, we know by now that informal agreements and truces were more common than clichés told us.
@wiking: Which German organization do you mean by the "Army League"? I would like to know.
When it comes to a bourgeouis' career in the armed forces, the navy was the way to go though. The nobility generally shunned this new, high-technizised and therefore for a Junker inglorious branch of the armed forces.
But I agree that the noblity's grasp on army positions also was in steady decline for several reasons.
@Firelizard & jkay
1. Well, rather liberal might put it too far. He was more liberal than Attila the Hun, though.
His rather liberal father was Friedrich III who only reigned for 99 days.
2. Yearning for an overseas empire was in his blood, he was Queen Victorias grandson.
3. We should not take the war into account too much in this thread. The war changed everything. The note to France is a direct consequence of the paranoid German war planning and is of no real meaning.