German Politics Without WW1

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Deleted member 1487

What would the internal political situation have been in Germany if WW1 never happened? Historians suggest that one of the major reasons that the German ruling class was so eager for war was to reentrench themselves after the major socialist victories in 1912 in the Reichstag elections. Without war would the socialists have managed to expand their influence enough to challenge the Kaiser and the 3-tier election system, as well as forcing the ratification of an actual constitution?
Would there be political violence? Kaiser Wilhelm balked at that when Bismarck suggested using the army to crush the socialists in the 1880's, but 3 decades later could he change his mind once his own unlimited power is threatened?
 

loughery111

Banned
Well the only question I know enough (I think) to answer out of that list would be: would there be political violence?

The answer being, very limited political violence, if the socialists and democrats managed to gain power and try for constitutional reform. Chances are that Wilhelm would try to employ the army against them to stop the reform. Chances also are that they would balk at the idea. The Christmas truce of 1914 came within a hair's breadth of derailing the war, and that was against Germany's "national enemies." I really doubt that the Kaiser could have ordered the army to move against German citizens. They would have mutinied, leaving him little choice but to accept the reforms placed in front of him. He would have sacrificed his political credibility and, with it, any ability to engage in horsetrading to moderate the reform. He may even have been forced to abdicate after a debacle like that.
 
The two biggest political issues in Germany where who selected the Reichskanzler and voting reform in Prussia. There were other issues such as tax reform and the military budget over all as most of the national budget was being spent on the army and navy while the national government didn't control income tax.

I would suspect that things might come to a head in 1917 when a new 5 year army bill would be on the table and Tirpitz would attempt a new naval law. At or around then would be time for another election. If the parties of the left could get over whelming control of the Reichstag and or ally with the center parties and be willing to hold the military budget ransom they might be able to push reforms through.

Michael
 

Deleted member 1487

The two biggest political issues in Germany where who selected the Reichskanzler and voting reform in Prussia. There were other issues such as tax reform and the military budget over all as most of the national budget was being spent on the army and navy while the national government didn't control income tax.

I would suspect that things might come to a head in 1917 when a new 5 year army bill would be on the table and Tirpitz would attempt a new naval law. At or around then would be time for another election. If the parties of the left could get over whelming control of the Reichstag and or ally with the center parties and be willing to hold the military budget ransom they might be able to push reforms through.

Michael

I thought that by 1912 the Reichstag had started to bristle at the naval spending, so I would be surprised that the Naval League would be so bold to try another Naval Law. Especially considering that the Army League had been formed recently and the middle class was rallying around expanding the army, as they were now able to gain commissions and higher commands unlike anytime since the formation of the Reich.
 
Well the only question I know enough (I think) to answer out of that list would be: would there be political violence?

The answer being, very limited political violence, if the socialists and democrats managed to gain power and try for constitutional reform. Chances are that Wilhelm would try to employ the army against them to stop the reform. Chances also are that they would balk at the idea. The Christmas truce of 1914 came within a hair's breadth of derailing the war, and that was against Germany's "national enemies." I really doubt that the Kaiser could have ordered the army to move against German citizens. They would have mutinied, leaving him little choice but to accept the reforms placed in front of him. He would have sacrificed his political credibility and, with it, any ability to engage in horsetrading to moderate the reform. He may even have been forced to abdicate after a debacle like that.

From what I've read of Wilhelm, he was rather liberal in the fact that he tended to look for diplomatic solutions before pursuing a more violent course of action. Putting down rebellions with military might would probably be a last course of action for Wilhelm, who would probably take a page from Bismarcks book and compensate those crowing for social and political reform, while retaining much of the power he already had in Germany. Wilhelm was not an incompetent man, although he did have a yearning for an overseas empire that bordered on the just down right weird. The other thing is that the German Army had done so several times with no incidents that I can recollect. The idea of a trained soldier in Germany during the early 1900s mutinying just doesn't seem that likely.
 
Firelizard:
From what I've read of Wilhelm, he was rather liberal in the fact that he tended to look for diplomatic solutions before pursuing a more violent course of action.
Could you be mistaking his daddy of the same name for him?

...yes, he was so liberal and diplomatic in how he expanded World War I by sending an intolerable diplomatic message to France. And, it was hardly just an overseas empire Willy II was looking for, as Belgians and French will tell you. And, the sailors DID mutiny, towards the end of the war.
 
I thought that by 1912 the Reichstag had started to bristle at the naval spending, so I would be surprised that the Naval League would be so bold to try another Naval Law. Especially considering that the Army League had been formed recently and the middle class was rallying around expanding the army, as they were now able to gain commissions and higher commands unlike anytime since the formation of the Reich.

Other than the automatic replacement clause of the various naval laws they run out in 1917. Even then automatic replacement doesn't get new U Boats or additional destroyers and aviation wasn't under the naval laws. So something would have to be tried even if its just limited.

Michael
 
Sometimes developments are just inevitable. And I think in 1912 or later, it was pretty clear for the vast majority of Germany - including the elites - that the Prussian voting system would have to be changed sooner or later. And in the same way, it was clear that sooner or later the chancellor would be elected by the Reichstag, not by the Emperor. Wilhelm II. himself provides several arguments for this. I think the most probable outcome would be that SPD increases its share in the Reichstag and the Prussian Landtag, and so would Zentrum and the liberals, and there would be a gradual democratization. Sooner or later the chancellor will need the votes of the liberals/socialists/catholics and they will gain some power. And sooner or later Wilhelm will make some of his "mistakes" and hence his rights will be limited as well.
 
What would the internal political situation have been in Germany if WW1 never happened?

I agree with miketr and the excellent Monty Burns.

Without WW1-there would probably be a paralyzing power-struggle in the 1910s between the political parties which represent about 75% of the electorate (Social Democrats, the Catholic "Centrum" and the liberal "Fortschrittlichen") and the old elites at the Court and in the armed forces.

This struggle, which had actually already begun by 1914, would be about two key issues:
- the Prussian voting system ("Dreiklassenwahlrecht") which was based on taxpaying and very much favoured high incomes
-the right to pick the Reichskanzler as head of government which was still the Kaiser's right

If Prussia adopted the system of the Reichstag general elections, it would stop being the last political harbor of the conservative parties. (This measure was announced in OTL 1917).

If the Reichskanzler has to be confirmed by a parliamentary majority, Germany would have become a full instead of a semi-constitutional monarchy with the Kaiser on his way to being a mere figurehead (a role Wilhelm II would actually have been perfect for!) instead of a main
political factor.

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Would there be violence about these issues? I doubt it.

These points would be discussed, debated and so on. But there wouldn't be the so called "Grosse Kladderadatsch" (big crash). The SPD was no revolutionary party any more whereas the Communists hadn't yet left it. So there is little potential for violence from the left side.

As to the other side, they could simply deny anything and sit on their priviledges and on the executive, maybe ignore the Reichstag à la the early Bismarck.

What might such a constitutional crisis look like? General strike? Walk-out of most members of the Reichstag?

What could the army and Wilhelm II do if they try to fight the status quo?
There was not yet a concept for a totalitarian state, and without the experience of the World War, there would be little understanding
for such measures within peacetime in a Germany which saw itself as progressive, liberal and prosperous. Adjusting the political system to the one in Russia would find little support outside of the nobility and some political generals maybe.

Even after 1848, when the Prussian king put down the revolution violently, Prussia was more liberal afterwards than beforehands.

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What I predict would be a long political struggle, like a long match of tug-of-war.
The majority parties will organize their co-operation (there had been strong tendences to start doing prior to 1914), and fight for little pieces of power in exchange for rising military budgets.

This is basically the situation of 1912-14.

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@loughery

I generally agree with your assesssment.

A word on Wilhelm II. He was not as firmly in the saddle as we often think. He had lost much of his credibility due to several affairs and his ability to rule was questioned increasingly prior to the war.

His stance on using the army in internal struggles such as strikes is ambivalent. An effort to do so without an open provocation might stall before orders get out to the units - and an abdication enforced.

I doubt, though, that the Christmas truce came close to derailing the war. Christmas and non-Christmas-days are a different thing, and if it means that the German army was not realiable, then the same must be said about the British and French.
Also, we know by now that informal agreements and truces were more common than clichés told us.

@wiking: Which German organization do you mean by the "Army League"? I would like to know.

When it comes to a bourgeouis' career in the armed forces, the navy was the way to go though. The nobility generally shunned this new, high-technizised and therefore for a Junker inglorious branch of the armed forces.

But I agree that the noblity's grasp on army positions also was in steady decline for several reasons.

@Firelizard & jkay

1. Well, rather liberal might put it too far. He was more liberal than Attila the Hun, though.
His rather liberal father was Friedrich III who only reigned for 99 days.

2. Yearning for an overseas empire was in his blood, he was Queen Victorias grandson. :cool:

3. We should not take the war into account too much in this thread. The war changed everything. The note to France is a direct consequence of the paranoid German war planning and is of no real meaning.
 

Deleted member 1487

There was an organization called the Deutscher Wehrverein, which in English is usually translated as the German army league. It was formed in 1912 and had links to Ludendorff and Moltke, as well as other prominent reformers. Their major success was getting the army expansion bill passed in 1913 IIRC. This added something like 100,000+ men to the army. There was heavy opposition to it from the conservatives, as they were arguing that the political reliability of the recruits would not be up to standard, as well as require the army to induct many middle class officers into several fields they were usually not favored, including the infantry. The Wehrverein was a middle class movement and extremely nationalistic, intent on loosening the grip of the nobility on the army so that they too could have more influence in the senior service.


Here is a good book about it:
http://books.google.com/books?id=4N...wAw#v=onepage&q=german army bill 1913&f=false

Edit:
Also check out the Kaiser's Army:
http://books.google.com/books?id=T6...ook_result&ct=result&resnum=5&ved=0CDQQ6AEwBA

The German army was modernizing rapidly right before the war after having lost most of the early 20th century to the conservatives keeping technology and reform out of the army. The middle class influence was rising rapidly in the army, partly due to the formation of the Wehrverein, which was formed to combat the conservatives' influence over army policy. One of the best things Ludendorff did. The man would probably have been much more respected without the war and leading Germany to ruin, if he was just known for fighting heroically for reform in the army.
 
By 1912 the German electorate had elected a majority of anti-establishment parties: Social Democrats, Progressives and Catholics. Unfortunately the Progressives (who can be thought of as Left Liberals rather than the more right wing National Liberals) and the Catholics would certainly not vote consistently against the Government, while many in the Social democratic party were becoming more establishment creating a rift in the movement.

The Social democrats had doubled their seats since 1907 and so were on an upswing at this point. Their failure to win enough concessions and the internal divisions will probably hurt them in the next election. Voting reform in Prussia however would probably hurt the conservatives.

Since the Chancellor is appointed by the Emperor and answerable only to the Emperor he just needs to pass the spending through the Reichstag who control the purse strings. The easiest way to do this is to reintegrate the Catholics more and since the conservatives are weaker this may just happen out of desperation.

Meanwhile expect the national liberals and the progressives to work together to attempt to reduce the tariffs and promote free trade. A unified Liberal Party of Germany is not outside the realms of possibility. It depends on how weak the Conservatives are, how much the Social Democrats falter and how much Wilhelm wants a quiet life over political fights with these politicians (which distract him from what he really wants to do which is play toy soldiers and international relations [something he's hopeless at :(])
 
There was an organization called the Deutscher Wehrverein, which in English is usually translated as the German army league.

Thank you very much. It must have escaped my attention until now.

One of the best things Ludendorff did. The man would probably have been much more respected without the war and leading Germany to ruin, if he was just known for fighting heroically for reform in the army.

Well, that would be something which wouldn't have brought him many merits in present-day German historiography anyways. Considering Germany's impossible position in World War I, I deem his military record to be quite good.

But Ludendorff failed on the political level. Especially his actions from August 1918 onwards, finding a nadir in his involvement with the Hitler putsch 1923, are a stain on his reputation, IMHO.

Just my two pence.

@Kvasir

A very realistic scenario. I seriously doubt that a shift of power of the Reich would have led to a SPD-government. Center-Right governments would be far more common, INMHO, that wouldn't hurt. While the coalition of SPD/Center/DDP (left liberals) was called the Weimar coalition, most chancellors governed with center-right coalitions which were either tolerated by the SPD or included the ultra-conservative (or reactionary) DNVP.
 
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Firelizard:
Could you be mistaking his daddy of the same name for him?

...yes, he was so liberal and diplomatic in how he expanded World War I by sending an intolerable diplomatic message to France. And, it was hardly just an overseas empire Willy II was looking for, as Belgians and French will tell you. And, the sailors DID mutiny, towards the end of the war.

A technicality here is that Wilhelm I was Idiot Billy's grandfather. His father was Emperor Friedrich III and had actual power for all of 90 days.

As to the OP, I would say that the German Empire would face a major crisis of its existence. It would be required to either yield popular choice of the Chancellorship or Germany has its 1905.
 
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