German Politics Following WWI Victory

Kind of like this thread, but:

Let's take a pretty standard CP Victory TL: Germany doesn't invade Belgium, Britain stays neutral, but the war (or at least the eastern front) lasts at least until mid 1917 (longer if needed), and the February Revolution still happens.

What I want to know is, in this circumstance, does Germany still see a revolution and/or democratization? What are the prospects of an elected Chancellorship by 1920?
 

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Good question, I guess it depends on the circumstances of the war. The German right could be strengthened depending on the gains, however temporarily, or, if casualties are too great and the country is massively in debt, then thing might look bad for the monarchy. The Kaiser is staying, but Wilhelm may have to abdicate in favor of his son. 1917 seems too late for the war to last if the French and British are out, but if the French are in, that may work. Austria-Hungary is still going to be viable and there will have been no blockade, meaning that the US is likely to have become a major debtor of Germany and Austria, thanks to imports and perhaps some loans.

German and Austrian currencies are going to be inflated much like OTL, but they won't have reparations to help. Alsace-Lorraine is going to be a bit smaller once the French get to attack without Germany being able to seize much back in very costly attacks. Peace deal favors Germany in territory, most likely, but the cost of holding these down is likely to sap German morale at home and faith in the government perhaps causing the very thing that the conservatives were afraid of: the overthrowing of the 3-tier voting system in Prussia and an actual constitution with a government headed up by the socialists, who've become more radicalized by the war. The German people won't be willing to uphold the nobility system and very well may demand a united Germany instead of the associated 4 kingdoms within the Reich.

Austria-Hungary, while outside the scope of the OP, is going to be very very interesting here. The army wants to annex Serbia, Hungary doesn't want it, but also wants and independent royal Hungarian army, dissolving the K.u.K. army into two. I wonder if there will be a communist revolt in TTL Hungary...
 
This may seem like an odd comment to start with: I must say that I am surprised that British neutrality due to German adherence to the Treaty of London is a pretty standard Alliance victory point-of-divergence these days. AFAIK, traditionally, the choices have been more of USA neutrality, and secondly Italian neutrality or early knock-out.
You'll might hear British neutrality is xeno-void chiropteran in nature, incidentally. I might not be happy about that point of view, but I will admit it has some cause for it, at least if nothing else happens to drive a wedge between the French and British.

As for the question posed... hm, well, this is a late-war victory. That means Germany will still be fairly exhausted and facing economic troubles, and, what with how draining the War was, the victory will not be very strengthening for the more extreme conservative and nationalist elements. In fact, there might have been promises made, as in OTL, of changes of a democratic nature after the War, and if those are not fulfilled, then things are going to get bad, perhaps, indeed, to a Revolution-level, unless the elements trying to stop it are forced to pull back. All in all, with a late-war victory, I'd say the prospects of some democratization, if not necessarily full-on democracy within a monarchial frame, is likelier than not, but I might be mistaken.
 
Peace deal favors Germany in territory, most likely, but the cost of holding these down is likely to sap German morale at home and faith in the government perhaps causing the very thing that the conservatives were afraid of: the overthrowing of the 3-tier voting system in Prussia and an actual constitution with a government headed up by the socialists, who've become more radicalized by the war. The German people won't be willing to uphold the nobility system and very well may demand a united Germany instead of the associated 4 kingdoms within the Reich.

All in all, with a late-war victory, I'd say the prospects of some democratization, if not necessarily full-on democracy within a monarchial frame, is likelier than not, but I might be mistaken.

Very nice :D Within these prospects, how likely is a directly elected Chancellorship to come about in the next few years?
 
Very nice :D Within these prospects, how likely is a directly elected Chancellorship to come about in the next few years?


Not likely. Too much like a republic.

Best guess, at some point the Kaiser swallows hard and appoints Ebert or some other Social Dem in the regular way. By now, the SPD isn't all that radical, so they can probably live with each other.
 
Very nice :D Within these prospects, how likely is a directly elected Chancellorship to come about in the next few years?
Well, not necessarily that likely de jure, but somewhat likely de facto. That is to say, the Chancellorship might still be appointed by the Emperor, but the Emperor (whoever that is) has to take care to appoint a chancellor that has support in the Reichstag. Something like Britain, although possibly more complex at times (more parties in the parliament).
 
Very nice :D Within these prospects, how likely is a directly elected Chancellorship to come about in the next few years?

Given that Germany never had a directly-elected chancellor IOTL...

There'll probably be a gradual change. Sooner or later, the Emperor will face the problem that no chancellor he'd like to appoint has a decent majority in the Reichstag. Therefore, there'll be amandements to the constitution which require the Emperor to appoint a chancellor which actually holds the majority in the Reichstag. Essentially, this will be some sort of "cohabitation" in the French sense with a liberal/progressive/SPD chancellor and the more conservative Emperor for years to come. Gradually, however, the Emperor will loose even more rights and becomes a ceremonial figure.
 
Given that this is a late victory, Germany will be rather busy containing both domestic upheaval and trying to get a peace that won't leave mass protests in either the Left or the Right. Depending on what happens to Russia ITTL there could easily be an analogue of Nazism arising. And since the Nazis disdained the earlier hierarchy, something even Hitler felt, an interesting POD would be if expansionism at Russia's expense rises as per OTL mixed with anti-semitism and the new *Nazism becomes the major driving force for popular selection of the Chancellorship. :eek:
 
What I want to know is, in this circumstance, does Germany still see a revolution and/or democratization? What are the prospects of an elected Chancellorship by 1920?

Certainly no revolution. The 1918 revolution came about due to a special mix of circumstances, a lot of them being removed in this scenario:

- British neutrality means a different situation in the German Fleet (no harbour sitting, more discipline, no planning of the "Schlacht am Kap des Großen Selbstmords" which drove the seamen to mutiny

- Peace in 1917 means no general paralysis of the public and of politicians due to the Spanish flu.

- No defeat.
The system broke down when the Kaiser abdicated. This was a measure to receive easier peace conditions and again due to the defeat.
Seriously, why should the Germans rebel against a victorious system? The victory parade in Berlin will be great!
Also, the unbeaten army will be in a totally different position to deal with insurrections (but I do not expect any).

- No blockade. In your scenario, Britain is neutral. If the French tried to blockade the German coast....good luck.
So this means that the Germans will have suffered shortages, but no hunger. Morale in the general population will be better, besides, your war is probably by 9-15 months shorter than OTL.

Democratization is more difficult to assess. There will be some, but it will be gradual.

- As we saw in other victorious nations during the 20th century, the mobilized masses will want to have their spoils of the victory. They will want more political rights and political reform.

- So, whereas in a peaceful 1910s the Reichstag election of 1917 might have been a setback for an SPD which wouldn't have managed to bring about reforms, the war might push their percentage a bit over 1912 levels.

- In 1917 OTL, Wilhelm II promised to reform the Prussian suffrage. I expect that this reform will come to fruition and will bring about a progressive/SPD/Catholic majority in the Prussian Landtag as well. Now you all know that Germany was (as it is) a federation of Länder in which major political influence lay.
Most other larger Länder had alredy adopted equal universal male suffrage, but Prussia is the Land where more than 60% of all Germans lived.

- The other key aspect is a changed definition of the responsibility of the Chancellor. The German constitution was in a dead-end-street already years before 1914 due to the Wilhelm II usually appointing Reichskanzler without a majority (Bülow had one for a short time).
My guess is that there will be not much of a sudden celebrated change, but that
a) members of the Reichstag will become the usual choice to enter the cabinet or be appointed as Reichskanzler
b) the appointment of a new Kanzler will take the majorities into account and the heads of the parties will be heard beforehands

This is doable without the face-loss of having to change the constitution to placate the political will of the people. This could be done later without much fuss once these new habits have become perceived as the normal political way.

-Ebert might become the first social democrat cabinet member, but there will be no SPD-chancellorship anytime soon, maybe 10 or 15 years after the war. A Kanzler from the ranks of the Fortschrittspartei, or a Catholic would be spectacular enough. This might even be the case if the Reichskanzler is actually elected through the Reichstag (which would require constitutional change).

- Wilhelm IIs influence in the army will have shrunk to very low levels due to his performace during the war. It will be clear that the Kaiser is just a nominal commander in chief. I am not sure about the situation of the Kronprinz to that regards.
 
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