German Philippines

In the event of a German Japanese confrontation, who would win?

The Japanese, I expect.

If the Japanese do, would they keep it as a mandate or a colony?

If it's a mandate they'll treat it the same way they treated their acquisitions in the Pacific. Forget about any eventual independence.

Or would it be given to the U.S. or Britain or just it's independence?

The US was never the most likely country to acquire them anyway. If the Japanese take them they're gonna keep them for themselves. The most Britain can hope for is a renunciation to any claim to North Borneo.
 
From the Manila Times, September 21, 2006:

SPECIAL REPORT: Philippine History

What ifs in Philippine history

By Augusto V. de Viana

Given the benefit of hindsight, we could stretch our imagination on what the country could have been if history had taken a different turn. Could it have been for the better or worse?

What if the Philippines became a German colony?

The Philippines would have been a German colony had a second battle of Manila Bay taken place in 1898. After defeating the Spanish fleet on May 1, 1898, US Rear Admiral George Dewey ordered a blockade of Manila. Other countries like Japan, Great Britain, France and Germany sent naval vessels to protect their nationals and interests in the country. The German squadron under Vice Admiral Otto Von Diederichs, which consisted of five warships and two auxiliaries, outnumbered the Americans.

One ship alone, the transport Darmstadt, carried 1,400 men, nearly the number of Dewey’s men. The Germans violated Dewey’s blockade of Manila by supplying flour to the trapped Spaniards and Spanish ladies and residents were treated aboard the German vessels. German officers also visited Spanish and Filipino outposts. At one time the German warship Irene interfered with the landing of Filipino troops on Grande Island in Zambales that Dewey had to send the cruiser Concord. On seeing the American warship the German vessel quietly left Subic Bay.

At that time Germany was looking for new territories to colonize. It had acquired the eastern half of New Guinea in 1873 and half of Samoa in 1889. In 1876 a German resident of Jolo, Captain Hermann Leopold Schuck, asked Germany to intervene on behalf of the Sultan of Sulu. The sultanate at that time was being attacked by Spanish forces.

The Germans continued to violate the blockade. They took soundings off Malabon and at the mouth of the Pasig River. Von Diederichs himself landed at Manila and occupied one of the quarters of the Spanish officers. The German soldiers occupied the lighthouse of Manila and some of them landed in Mariveles and conducted drills.

They also irritated Dewey by sending a launch one night at 11 p.m. to deliver an unimportant message.

******

Friday, September 22, 2006


SPECIAL REPORT: Philippine History

What ifs in Philippine history


Conclusion

The breaking point came when the German gunboat Cormoran refused to acknowledge signals from the Americans to be boarded for inspection. The boat had to be stopped by firing a shot across its bow. Von Diederichs then sent an officer to complain about Dewey’s provocative acts.

While listening to the German officer, Dewey’s complexion changed from white to red. He then asked: “Does his Excellency [von Diederichs] know that it is my force and not his is that is blockading this port [Manila]?

The officer answered yes.

Dewey continued: “And is he aware that he has no rights except as I choose to allow him and does he realize that he cannot communicate with that city without my permission?”

“One can imagine, sir, that you were conducting this blockade,” was the reply.

Dewey then bluntly asked, “Do you want war with us?”

“Certainly not!” was the officer’s curt reply

“Well, it looks like it, and you are very near it, and . . . you can have it as soon as you like!” replied Dewey with his voice raised so that he could be heard by officers below deck.

The German officer backed in consternation and whispered to Dewey’s flag lieutenant: “Your admiral seems to be much in earnest.” The flag lieutenant replied: “You can be certain that he means every word he says.”

For a while there was a tense situation in Manila Bay. The Germans were superior in both men and firepower to the Americans. At this point the British squadron under Captain Sir Edward Chichester sided with Dewey. The British ship Immortalit’e sailed alongside Dewey’s flagship the Olympia with its band playing “The Star Spangled Banner.” The balance now tipped in favor of the Americans and the Germans stopped their provocations.

If a second battle was fought and if the United States were defeated, the Philippines would have become a German colony. The idea would have been supported by the Filipino elite since Germany had a positive image as a rapidly progressive European power. Rizal and other reformists admired Germany, its culture and its industry and hoped that Filipinos imitate the German work ethic known for its emphasis on efficiency and frugality.

The histories of territories which experienced German rule such as the Northern Mariana Islands, remember the period “as the good old days.” Though the natives could not be German citizens, education and health care were extended to the population. The people were allowed to retain their native customs.

The German language was taught in the public schools. The Germans instilled the concept that work itself was a virtue. Order, punctuality, camaraderie and obedience to authority and technical knowledge were taught as desirable characteristics. The measure of progress was the improved standard of living. Most of the natives had a job which provided them with security and necessities in life.

However, if the Philippines became a German colony, Germany’s rule would be a brief one. With the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, Japan rapidly occupied the German Pacific colonies in the Marianas, Palau and the Carolines came under Japanese mandate of the League of Nations.

The Philippines would have suffered the same fate as the former German colonies. Had the Philippines become a Japanese territory from 1914 up to the Second World War, the Filipinos would be fighting on the side of Japan, not the United States, and history would have been vastly different.
 
Thanks David S Poepoe for that article for that very informative article.

Ok, so now I know that work ethics would replace the family first feature of Filipino culture. Education, healthcare and employment will be taken care of. German will replace Spanish as the main second language.

Anyway, I'd still like to know;

1. How would Germany interact with the Rebels who at that time, had just declared independence? Would they declare war and establish a colonial government and deny Philippine independence or do what the Americans did and "prepapare it for eventual independence"?

2. Could the Philippines adopt German things like having a diet, the federal system, an aristocracy with the prefix von, Prussian militarism with things like conscription?

3. If they are to turn it into a colony, who would the Kaiser appoint as Governor General

4. Is it possible for the German Pacific fleet to sail to Hawaii from the Philippines and attack or invade during WW1?
 
Though of course the world completely forgot the ruthless US suppression of the insurgents in the South around Sulu, Leonard Wood and all that. So, its possible the world won't worry THAT much. It probably depends if the Germans treat the Catholic Filipinos as 'natives' - Sulu etc were IIRC Islamic rebels against the US

The revolts in the Islamic areas went on for longer, but the Catholic Filipinos were still treated quite roughly during the time when they revolted, too. So if the Germans acted similarly or worse, while it may not still be remembered in 2007, it'd probably cause quite a stink for a few years after it happened.
 
It had acquired the eastern half of New Guinea in 1873

Wrong.

3. If they are to turn it into a colony, who would the Kaiser appoint as Governor General

Someone with previous colonial experience in Africa, military proficiency trumping administrative proficiency. After all, they're gonna have to fight some rebels.

4. Is it possible for the German Pacific fleet to sail to Hawaii from the Philippines and attack or invade during WW1?

In theory, I think so, if they make refueling stops in some German Pacific colonies. But I don't think they'll have troops to spare, and once they realize the Philippines are lost the ships they have there will raid Entente shipping and/or try to get to the Atlantic.

Then again, if they manage to obtain the locals' loyalty they might try to hold on in the Philippines. It's not East Africa, but it's still good territory for resistance... as long as they learned a thing or 2 from the rebels.
 
Thanks David S Poepoe for that article for that very informative article.

Ok, so now I know that work ethics would replace the family first feature of Filipino culture. Education, healthcare and employment will be taken care of. German will replace Spanish as the main second language.

Anyway, I'd still like to know;

4. Is it possible for the German Pacific fleet to sail to Hawaii from the Philippines and attack or invade during WW1?

I came across the article quite by chance and there are a few other WIs of Filipino history carried in another article.

4. Don't see why they can't sail to Hawaii, tho exactly why would they. Unless you are mention that they follow up their victory in the Philippines by attacking Hawaii. In this regard, I strongly doubt it. They would really want to consolidate their winnings and prepare for any (un)likely American attack. At the time Hawaii is still the pro-US Republic of Hawaii and hasn't been formally annexed by the US.

With a German Philippines it would be interesting to consider that the German's would despatch the armoured cruiser SMS Blucher to be the flagship of the Far East Squadron. Tsingtao would be an early write off in the Great War in Asia, so it probably wouldn't be too hard to think that the Japanese will be called up to provide the bulk of the Allied forces to route the German and Filipino troops out of Manila and the Philippines.

I'll give this idea some more thought.
 
An interesting question would be if German Philippines would lead to more fundamental changes which maybe prevent WWI as we know it.

A first change would be that the Philippines together with the pacific islands and new guinea would be one of the most important German colonies. Germany would instantly become an important factor in the region. The Philippines would probably require more than OTL east-asia squadron for protection, and there might be thinking about how to secure supplies. This may lead to changes in the fleet program. However, these changes would probably be only minor.
Another point is that the Philippines in German hands may be a reason for a better relationship to Britain: The Germans must settle questions about northern Borneo, free-trade, policy in China, where they would become a more important player than OTL. This may lead to more cooperation with Britain. IOTL, Germany wouldn't care too much about the colonies, since they were not very important and quite weak. The more colonies Germany gets, the more they get into consideration when it comes to alliances. And the best thing you could do to protect overseas possessions is keeping Britain happy, since Britannia rules the waves.
 
An interesting question would be if German Philippines would lead to more fundamental changes which maybe prevent WWI as we know it.

A first change would be that the Philippines together with the pacific islands and new guinea would be one of the most important German colonies. Germany would instantly become an important factor in the region. The Philippines would probably require more than OTL east-asia squadron for protection, and there might be thinking about how to secure supplies. This may lead to changes in the fleet program. However, these changes would probably be only minor.
Another point is that the Philippines in German hands may be a reason for a better relationship to Britain: The Germans must settle questions about northern Borneo, free-trade, policy in China, where they would become a more important player than OTL. This may lead to more cooperation with Britain. IOTL, Germany wouldn't care too much about the colonies, since they were not very important and quite weak. The more colonies Germany gets, the more they get into consideration when it comes to alliances. And the best thing you could do to protect overseas possessions is keeping Britain happy, since Britannia rules the waves.

Homer

That is one very important butterfly. You could see Britain and Germany on the same side in some WWI type conflict, in which case they would very likely win, or even butterfly the conflict altogether. Either way we have a vastly different world.

Of course, if you avoid the historical WWI then the Germans would probably stay in the Philippines much longer rather than being deposed by the Japanese. That would have big impacts there.

Steve
 
That is one very important butterfly. You could see Britain and Germany on the same side in some WWI type conflict, in which case they would very likely win, or even butterfly the conflict altogether. Either way we have a vastly different world.

I don't think that "German Philippines" alone could do this. The main thing would be to prevent the naval race, or, to say it clear, to let the german naval buildup concentrate on an international, oceangoing cruiser fleet to protect the supply lines to the colonies rather than a north sea based anti-Britain fighting fleet as OTL.

How important would the Philippines be for Germany? Would they be some sort of "German pearl in the pacific"? Of such an importance that German policies are concentrated on protecting the Philippines? I'd think that the Philippines would be more or less "equal" to French-Indochina.

In another thread, it was discussed that a larger German colonial empire would grant this change in German naval policies and therefore wouldn't alienate the British as it did OTL. The question is whether the Philippines would already make the difference.
 
I don't think that "German Philippines" alone could do this. The main thing would be to prevent the naval race, or, to say it clear, to let the german naval buildup concentrate on an international, oceangoing cruiser fleet to protect the supply lines to the colonies rather than a north sea based anti-Britain fighting fleet as OTL.

In another thread, it was discussed that a larger German colonial empire would grant this change in German naval policies and therefore wouldn't alienate the British as it did OTL. The question is whether the Philippines would already make the difference.

If the German Philippines isn't enough, what other factors could probably change German British relations enough to stop the two from fighting each other in WW1?

And if German British relations are changed enough, what exactly would transpire between the two powers? A formal alliance of some sorts?

How important would the Philippines be for Germany? Would they be some sort of "German pearl in the pacific?"? Of such an importance that German policies are concentrated on protecting the Philippines? I'd think that the Philippines would be more or less "equal" to French-Indochina.

I think that the Philippines would be very special to Germany. I mean the French have had a colonial empire for centuries, but having a large colony in the Pacific would be a first time thing for the Germans along with their other possessions in Africa. And with it, Germany would be a major presence in the Pacific and it would profit highly form the trade and resoucres there.
 
I
I think that the Philippines would be very special to Germany. I mean the French have had a colonial empire for centuries, but having a large colony in the Pacific would be a first time thing for the Germans along with their other possessions in Africa. And with it, Germany would be a major presence in the Pacific and it would profit highly form the trade and resoucres there.

Yes, of course that's all true. The best change to anglo-german relations, however, is a complete change in the German naval upbuild. The Philippines would certainly be the most important part of the German colonial empire. Yet on the other side I doubt if one colony more would change the naval upbuild alltogether. It would shift ressources from the Hochseeflotte to more cruisers and the like to protect supply lines from and to the Philippines. There might be a second or even third Asian squadron. But does that prevent the Hochseeflotte to be a threat to Britain?
 
If the German Philippines isn't enough, what other factors could probably change German British relations enough to stop the two from fighting each other in WW1?

And if German British relations are changed enough, what exactly would transpire between the two powers? A formal alliance of some sorts?

I think that the Philippines would be very special to Germany. I mean the French have had a colonial empire for centuries, but having a large colony in the Pacific would be a first time thing for the Germans along with their other possessions in Africa. And with it, Germany would be a major presence in the Pacific and it would profit highly form the trade and resoucres there.

The High Seas Fleet could see the necessity of a larger battlecruiser arm, for the most part armoured cruisers will be obsolete. Then there is the problem of Japan with its battleline close by which would necessitate the basing of a few battleships in the Far East. However, in the end it is the Continental balance of power between the Entente and the Triple Alliance that decides things. The possession of the Philippines does warrant the need for a true blue water battlefleet.
 
After reading the posts above I think Japan might actualy be a key factor in preventing the British joining the entente in a German-Philippines Timeline. If there's a race between Germany and Japan about who gets the Philippines and Germany barely wins, then the Germans would have eve more of an incentive to change their naval upbuilt: Large fleet in the Philippines against a true naval power (Japan) plus ships protecting supply lines (cruisers).

Maybe we could even have a war between Germany and Japan. Unlike VoCSe I'd bet on the Germans. The Japanese won against the Russians, so the Germans are warned. And the Germans would sent a better force than the Baltic Sea Fleet...
 
Maybe we could even have a war between Germany and Japan. Unlike VoCSe I'd bet on the Germans. The Japanese won against the Russians, so the Germans are warned. And the Germans would sent a better force than the Baltic Sea Fleet...

I was talking about a German-Japanese conflict in the context of WWI, where Germany has a lot less troops and ships to spare in the Philippines.
 
If the German Philippines isn't enough, what other factors could probably change German British relations enough to stop the two from fighting each other in WW1?

And if German British relations are changed enough, what exactly would transpire between the two powers? A formal alliance of some sorts?

Can anyone answer these questions?
 
If the German Philippines isn't enough, what other factors could probably change German British relations enough to stop the two from fighting each other in WW1?

And if German British relations are changed enough, what exactly would transpire between the two powers? A formal alliance of some sorts?

The plain answer is that the Philippines and the Far East pretty much is distance 'fringe' politics when considering the balance of power in Europe - where it really counted. France and Britain made their peace at the turn of the 20th century (if not before) and Germany was doing alot that was perceived as threats by them.
 
We have to be more precise about this pre-WW1 Anglo-German lovey-dovey. When did it happen?

The Japanese fleet was largely developed with British technology and assistance. If this were withdrawn, what would be the effect on the Russo-Japanese war? Also the Germans would have a certain naval ascendancy in the Pacific (the British could only commit a small number of warships there.)

This would not please the Americans.
 
I do agree that Germany is most likely candidate for next colonial power after America.

There are forks in the road that Germany-Philippines might consider:
1) Colonize the Philippines by force with a certain level of difficulty considering the local Philippine has already an established government and large army who has experience in warfare in the local terrain for years now.

2) Let the Philippines be an independent country as a German protectorate with German economy interests as a priority. Much like what the Americans did in OTL 1946 Philippines. Thus, avoiding cost for the Germany both in manpower and financially but getting the benefits of a colony.

Now if you chose 1), Germany can do things as Philippines as a colony.
1A) Much like OTL, make Philippines a supply for natural resource and military/colonial base in Asia.
2B) Industrialize the Philippines making stronger for the effects of WW1 and 2

If you chose 2), Philippines can actually ask for another protector upon WW1 or WW2 timeline. Or if Philippines, by WW1, has a capable navy to fight any other superpower at that time, stand on its own.
 
I do agree that Germany is most likely candidate for next colonial power after America.

There are forks in the road that Germany-Philippines might consider:
1) Colonize the Philippines by force with a certain level of difficulty considering the local Philippine has already an established government and large army who has experience in warfare in the local terrain for years now.

2) Let the Philippines be an independent country as a German protectorate with German economy interests as a priority. Much like what the Americans did in OTL 1946 Philippines. Thus, avoiding cost for the Germany both in manpower and financially but getting the benefits of a colony.

Now if you chose 1), Germany can do things as Philippines as a colony.
1A) Much like OTL, make Philippines a supply for natural resource and military/colonial base in Asia.
2B) Industrialize the Philippines making stronger for the effects of WW1 and 2

If you chose 2), Philippines can actually ask for another protector upon WW1 or WW2 timeline. Or if Philippines, by WW1, has a capable navy to fight any other superpower at that time, stand on its own.

This board frowns heavily on 'necromancy', ie posting in 'old' threads. You're new here, and arent familiar with the culture here.

If you want to continue discussion, i believe the most accepted thing to do is to start a new thread, with a link to the old thread(s).
 
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