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alternatehistory.com
The idea of Germany getting the Philippines from Spain instead of the US getting the Philippines is common enough that it is an alternate history trope (and a pre-1900 one at that). Often the idea is that Japan takes them in WWI (hence why I am posting in the post-1900 forum.
However, assuming a German Philippines, and assuming a war analogous to WWI where the seapower deficient Germans lose their colony, might a French, British, or multi-power partition be as likely as Japan taking over the archipelago?
Here's some maps of potential alternative, using the the traditional UCS to illustrate potential alternate outcomes.