German Philippines, partitioned post-WWI?

raharris1973

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The idea of Germany getting the Philippines from Spain instead of the US getting the Philippines is common enough that it is an alternate history trope (and a pre-1900 one at that). Often the idea is that Japan takes them in WWI (hence why I am posting in the post-1900 forum.

However, assuming a German Philippines, and assuming a war analogous to WWI where the seapower deficient Germans lose their colony, might a French, British, or multi-power partition be as likely as Japan taking over the archipelago?

Here's some maps of potential alternative, using the the traditional UCS to illustrate potential alternate outcomes.

I welcome your thoughts.

Post-WWI Philippines  partition.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition2.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition3.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition4.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition5.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition6.jpg


Post-WWI Philippines  partition7.jpg
 
Possibly, I could see a British/Japanese partition happening very easily. The US might also get involved, though this would depend on the US being less isolationist/ reluctant to enter the war than OTL.

IMO though you'd likely see a major Philippine independence uprising during the war in this scenario. Note that in OTL the Philippine-American War was a major unsuccessful struggle for Philippine independence, and the Philippines certainly had a far stronger national identity already than someplace like Tanganyika for example. Whether the Great Powers at the time would be willing to allow the Philippines to go independent is another matter of course. The Philippines might end up semi-independent with spheres of influence.
 
It will likely be a League of Nations mandate in the short-term. The big question is, what kind of mandate, and who would administer it (with the British, the French, and the Japanese most likely candidates for administrators).

Would it be an Iraq-like mandate to be given independence shortly, or a Syria-like mandate which the French tried to hold on for as long as possible...
 
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