German landing at Arhangelsk ?

well it doesn't necessarily have to come to that. If the finnish government, who was divide on the issue, accepts the initial soviet demands (which again, did nothing to finnish sovereignity and were less than what was eventually forced upon Helsinki),than Stalin might consider the issue solved and leave it be.

The Finnish viewpoint was legalistic - as a democracy, they just couldn't start swapping national territory to few forested municipalities in Eastern Karelia - especially since the negotiations clearly aimed at a similar deal than with Sudetenland - rendering the country cedecing territory unable to defend itself against further blackmailing by annexing the sole territories where even temporary resistance was possible.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...nish_negotiations_1939_borderline_finnish.png
Brown dotted lines are Soviet demands (by date), blue ones are Finnish counter-proposals by date.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rwar-december1939-karelianisthmus_finnish.png
The black line is the main Finnish defensive position in OTL Winter War.

maybe because they're scared ? you speak of it as if nobody ceded any territory during those times.

And look how well it worked out for all those who did :rolleyes:
If the Soviet demands came before Baltic states and Czechoslovakia, Finns are much more likely to say yes. In OTL Mannerheim wanted to cede away all islands in the Gulf of Finland, and was personally willing to take full blame on the public discussion for this decision - since he knew how awful the material situation of Finnish Army was at the time. You'd have to butterfly away Erkko from the Finnish government to make even that happen, though.
 
The Finnish viewpoint was legalistic - as a democracy, they just couldn't start swapping national territory to few forested municipalities in Eastern Karelia - especially since the negotiations clearly aimed at a similar deal than with Sudetenland - rendering the country cedecing territory unable to defend itself against further blackmailing by annexing the sole territories where even temporary resistance was possible.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...nish_negotiations_1939_borderline_finnish.png
Brown dotted lines are Soviet demands (by date), blue ones are Finnish counter-proposals by date.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...rwar-december1939-karelianisthmus_finnish.png
The black line is the main Finnish defensive position in OTL Winter War.



And look how well it worked out for all those who did :rolleyes:
If the Soviet demands came before Baltic states and Czechoslovakia, Finns are much more likely to say yes. In OTL Mannerheim wanted to cede away all islands in the Gulf of Finland, and was personally willing to take full blame on the public discussion for this decision - since he knew how awful the material situation of Finnish Army was at the time. You'd have to butterfly away Erkko from the Finnish government to make even that happen, though.


Ok then, POD: the soviets demand finnish concessions before annexing the Baltic states.
This wasn't even all that important however for this thread. I just mentioned it as an example of how Hitler might come to the conclusion that a war with the SU might last 2-3 years, although some people probably thing that, no matter what happens, he'll still think Barbarossa will be over in weeks.

Anyway, regarding lend-lease, if I'm reading this right(http://www.o5m6.de/Routes.html), then a substantial part of the allied supplies, all the way into early 1943, came via the northern ports, so such an operation should have some impact.
 
Magnum said:
are you sure about this ? from a brief reading of the wiki article, the initially soviets demanded less from the Finns then they eventually got as part of the subsequent peace deal.

Source?

A puppet-regime or greater arm-twisting on the existing goverment structure is more likely.

This discussion has been done in several threads before, and it is very hard to get around the fact that most available sources point to Stalin wanting to take over all of Finland - occupied by the Red Army, at first under Kuusinen's puppet government.

I quote myself from an earlier thread, on the subject of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (and Finland vs. Romania as a subject of Soviet demands):

When you look at the additional secret protocol to the MR pact, Finland is clumped together with the (other) Baltic states in the first part, and we know what happened to Estonia, Latvia and (after a revised deal) Lithuania. The Soviet interest into Bessarabia is mentioned specifically and in a latter part of the text: had Karelia (or just the isthmus) been mentioned in the same way, I might believe Stalin had no further designs on Finland. Besides, you might agree that Romania is strategically somewhat different from a country that "could reach Leningrad with its artillery", one which controls (together with poor Estonia) the sea approaches to the city and is in a position to menace the USSRs only Atlantic port.

The USSR did make new military plans in the Fall of 1940 for a renewed invasion of Finland in the near future. In these new plans, up to 50 divisions, 800 tanks and 3900 airplanes were slated to take part in the attack, after the 1940 Moscow Peace had more than satisfied all demands Finland could have possibly accepted in 1939. Considering this together with the fate of the Baltic states, I can't accept the viewpoint that Stalin would have just let Finland go with some (to the USSR) negligible border changes in 1939.

[snip]

Because we're not able to get into Stalin's head, we should base our assessment on what he actually did. In 1939-40, the Red Army attacked Finland with forces considered at the time sufficient to break the Finnish Army and occupy the country. In 1940 Soviet generals made new plans to attack Finland, based on conquering the whole nation instead of small parts of it. Given the opportunity, this plan was projected to be realized in 1941. And finally in summer 1944, before the drive for Berlin, again forces thought strong enough to smash the Finnish defense and occupy the country were committed against Finland. Given this, I'd say Stalin aimed to join Finland into his Soviet empire, either as an SSR or a Socialist puppet if the chance presented itself.

But lets say you are right: if Finland caved in the 1939 negotiations, Stalin might have just forgotten all about his small neighbour. Because, you know, small territorial concessions would have totally neutralized the threat inherent in the possibility of Finland allying itself with a hostile great power.
Let's just add that during the "Interim Peace" of 1940-41 the USSR kept Finland in a constant diplomatic vise, for example meddling with Finnish internal politics, shooting down a Finnish passenger aircraft and exhorting the Germans to respect their commitments in keeping Finland in the Soviet sphere of interest. The Finns had all the reasons to believe that Stalin aimed to finalize the conquest of Finland at an opportune time in the near future.
 
A landing all the way over there would be very risky. Not only do you need a port to get supplies (and the Germans had problems supplying their army in northern Finland already), which can only be hauled for about six months of the year before the sea ice over too much.

Besides, the Soviet Northern Fleet, based at Murmansk and Archangelsk had 8 destroyers, 15 submarines, 2 torpedo boats, 7 patrol boats, 2 minesweepers and 116 airplanes, plus substantial ground personell (OTL over 10 000 of the men of the northern fleet served as marine infantry on the northern front).

The Germans simply lack the oil to operate and protect supply convoys against the Northern Fleet. They lost most of their reserves and tankers after the British rounded up the supply ships intended for Bismarck and Prinz Eugen in April 1941.
 
I'm fairly sure about it, as both Glantz and Overy mentioned the USSR creating a Finnish People's Republic stationed in Karelia that happened to be disbanded before the USSR negotiated peace. While this would actually fit in with the Soviets' MO with their other expansions, all of which (save Bukovina) were about reclaiming territory that had been ruled by the Tsars in 1914).


I believe you're thinking about the Finnish Democratic Republic. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_Democratic_Republic
 
are you sure about this ? from a brief reading of the wiki article, the initially soviets demanded less from the Finns then they eventually got as part of the subsequent peace deal.

The Finns understood that this Soviet request, much like the initial request by Moscow towards the Baltics (mutual assistance and request for bases to "protect" them from the Nazis), was the thing edge of the wedge and that Moscow wanted nothing less than the whole country. The Baltics agree and got invaded and annexed. Stalin intended the same thing with Finland.

It's fairly clear that Stalin really wanted all of Finland. He was happy to deal with the Finnish refusal because it "justified" an immediate invasion to grab the whole country. Stalin accepted less than the whole country because he realized that while he finally defeated the Finnish army, if he attempted to occupy the whole thing it would mean an ongoing guerilla war and would weaken his negotiating position later on with the Germans.
 
In a world where Hitler becomes convinced that Barbarossa will take 2-3 years instead of being over in weeks, how feasible is a naval and air landing at Arhangelsk in the opening hours/days of the invasion aimed at taking the port, rendering it utterly useless and then pulling out ?

The Germans had some experience in taking over a hostile port city using the advantage of surprise (Norway campaign), so its not something that would never occur to them under any circumstance.

For the purpose of this discussion, the Fallschirmjager are not mauled at Crete or a hypothetical Malta.

(inspired by the thread about cutting the Murmansk railway)

Not reasonable. Archangel is too far. You certainly don't want to send in paratroopers, and the German navy would be too far exposed. Huge risk of disaster.

If the Germans had such forces available to them, they'd likely use it in support of gaining Murmansk. Only then, with the Germans and Finns controlling Karelia and the Kola Penninsula might you see an air bombardment of Archangel.
 
Stalin accepted less than the whole country because he realized that while he finally defeated the Finnish army, if he attempted to occupy the whole thing it would mean an ongoing guerilla war and would weaken his negotiating position later on with the Germans.

Had the Soviets truly defeated Finnish Army they'd kept going to Helsinki without stopping. And didin't seemingly showing weakness by leaving a Mickey Mouse-class former Russian province independent after a bloody conflict weaken his position with Germans ever more in OTL?

Stalin was a really cautious and calculative in his foreign policy after his experiences in the Polish-Soviet War. The rumours of an Allied expedition to Scandinavia really terrified him, since this Anglo-French plot to occupy Swedish iron ore mines with the pretext of helping Finland would have still brought Britain and France to war against USSR - and the whole purpose of M-R Pact ("Let you and him fight while the Red Army grows stronger) would have been ruined. The Peace of Moscow was a temporary time-out, as soon as Germans had occupied Norway Molotov went to Berlin to inform Hitler that the Soviets wanted to "solve the question of Finland."
 
Archangel is too far. It's about the same distance from Narvik and Tromso to Arhangelsk as from Wilhelmshaven to Narvik, and they pulled that one off quite well, all things considered.

You certainly don't want to send in paratroopers, Because?


and the German navy would be too far exposed. Huge risk of disaster. Exposed to what ? 8 destroyers, 15 submarines, 2 torpedo boats, 7 patrol boats, 2 minesweepers and 116 airplanes ? The Germans have battleships and cruisers, plus long range bombers and fighters that will most likely take out the airbases in the early hours, and, most importantly, the element of surprise.

If the Germans had such forces available to them, they'd likely use it in support of gaining Murmansk. Only then, with the Germans and Finns controlling Karelia and the Kola Penninsula might you see an air bombardment of Archangel.
They didn't launch such an operation because they figured it was unnecessary, since they thought the war would be over in weeks. Here, they plan for the long term. By the time they accepted the war was there to stay, the element of surprise was well and truly gone.


this wouldn't be an all out invasion, just a raid aimed at rendering the harbour useless.
 
But, it's already been pointed out, rightly, that it wouldn't take long to fix, especally by the time anything got there.

And, anyway, IOTL, that turned out to be a strictly minor route because we had more to ship, and shipped by the Pacific, and the Luftwaffe based in Norway made the Murmansk convoy hell on earth. In practice, the northern route was already closed.

Though it's not impossible it might've occurred to some important German, it would've no practical difference, even if it could've been done.
 
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