German Invasion of Russia Before France?

Is it even possible the Germans could come up with a plan like Barbarossa was if they attacked in 1940?

Well, no. Barbarossa was a broad front attack from out the gate the Baltic to the Black Sea. The IATL offensive will, by necessity, be channeled to the stretch of territory between Lithuania and the Carpathians but will still open up with the Eurasian funnel effect. The Germans are going to have to plan around that that instead. But given that their faces with the same logistical challenges with vastly fewer resources to meet them, there really isn’t any alternate plans that would let them push achieve even OTL gains, much less victory. The Germans will also face several challenges they didn’t IOTL Barbarossa, like the presence of an active second land front and having to logistically stretch themselves before they engage the main Soviet forces.

Also, would they make it a campaign of "extermination" as Hitler put it or less ambitious?

Given that it was a basic requirement to make the invasion logistically feasible IOTL, I don't see why it would be any different.
 

Marc

Donor
Also, keep in mind that Hitler's prestige and power over the generals is arguably predicated by the early victories in the West. Without those, the monster savant may have difficulty in pushing Germany into an earlier war with Russia.
 
The Luftwaffe was incapable of mobile support in 1940.

"The [Luftwaffe system] was best at supporting the Heer when it assaulted well-defined enemy defensive lines. It was not effective at supplying close air support once panzer units were in the open and moving with the rapidity that caused such surprise and consternation among other European armies." -Murray Williamson, The Luftwaffe Experience 1939-1941.

It could be used against fixed positions in a pre-planned manner to support breakthroughs, such as Sedan, effectively enough but running CAS for exploitation tended to result in more friendly fire then effective air support.

"Thus, the reporter of Panzerregiment 5 (3rd Panzer Division) noted laconically when asked about the experience of ground support. 'No experience, but only losses due to air raids by own air forces'." -Pohlmann Markus, Der Panzer und die Mechanisierung des Kriegus (Translated MHV)

"More distressing was the fact that throughout the campaign 10th Panzer Division's units were constantly machinegunned and bombed from the air by German aircraft." -Murray Williamson, The Luftwaffe Experience 1939-1941.

Mobile support was something the Luftwaffe had to learn during the course of the Battle of France and only applied in 1941. The effect of having somewhat more level bombers (CAS and Fighter strengths were back to pre-BoB levels by the time of Barbarossa) is rather offset by the fact that by the time the Germans hit the Soviet main force, the Luftwaffe will have to displace to inadequate airfields, with much weaker logistical support over worse terrain, and cover a front about 200 kilometers wider.

"Still in command of the VII Air Corps, von Richtofen in 1941 placed experienced stuka pilots in Mark III Panzer equipped with air-ground radios, to serve as mobile forward air controllers. For the first time, Luftwaffe CAS units could coordinate ground attacks right from the frontlines... The result was considerable increase in the Luftwaffe's ability to coordinate air strikes with the army in a mobile environment. Provided the signal detachments and the Flivos [Forward Air Controllers] were up front, the Luftwaffe could now talk to the lead elements of the army's advance on the ground." -Murray Williamson, The Luftwaffe Experience 1939-1941.

Given that the Luftwaffe was vital in salvaging German advances that almost collapsed by breaking up Soviet flanking attacks on a repeated basis, this inability to provide effective close air support would be lethal in a 1940 Soviet campaign for the German army.

Saved me the effort of finishing my comment on this. The need to place the air liasion teams in a vehicle with appropriate radios had not been acted on in 1940. Aside from a small number of ad hoc efforts the air liasion was in the corps CP, communicating via encrypted radio to the air division HQ.

In 1940 the German AF was primarily a deep strike or interdiction weapon. The inclusion of flexible & ultra fast CAS was not yet effected in 1940. The well know airstrike at Sedan had been planned and rehearsed as far back as March. It's final planning and execution orders came a full 24 hours ahead of the air attacks. Which was not far off from the French ODA cycle for air support. A attempt to modify the air attack plan at Sedan floundered on the inability of the staff to radically alter the existing plan on a single days notice.

German tactical and operational intelligence on the Red Army was a lot weaker than in the west. It really was necessary to have a nimbler FSC system in the east to deal with a more chaotic battlefield.
 
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First, I want to say attacking in 1940 in the East almost certainly won't work.

However, what German did OTL DID NOT WORK. So, let me try my best to argue that the OP might be a good idea for Germany (at the very least they lose way quicker and avoid so many civilian losses and the holocaust is greatly truncated.)

1. Germany attack RUssia with the same amount of tanks they attacked France. Yes, German types had worse guns in 1940 to some degree, but so did the Soviets so let's say it is a wash.

2. No Battle of Britain = Luftwaffe WAY stronger ITTL.

3. No attack West means allies have to attack through short border with Germany through France. For one, France loses the force multiplier of the Maginot Line if they actually proceed from the range of its guns, the British were still another year away from mobilizing enough men to really take the attack to Germany, and even in the best case scenario the Wallies are not getting past the Rhine. Heck, in 1941 they probably would still prove to be unable to do it, and Germany has homefield advantage, air defense, plus a superior air force on their side. The Germans have radar, better aircraft, and the benefit of losing pilots on their own territory while the Wallies get attrited. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_in_World_War_II#Germany)

4. Regardless of all the love for French and British tanks in 1940, they were not better than German designs. They were fundamentally flawed with too few crew members, slow firing rate, bad field of vision, slow speed, etc. So, there IS NOT going to be a Wallied blitzkrieg. Their tactics are fundamentally WW1 in nature, which means they do not get past the Rhine as I said before and the defense has a huge fundamental advantage in attriting the West with favorable ratios (granted, not as good as sickle cut obviously.) However, the political perception of this can be huge in the West. More on this later.

5. No Italy fighting the Wallies, allowing Germany another non-blockaded trading partner.

6. Russia's military build up is not complete and their recovery from the purge a year stunted from OTL. The Germans, on the other hand, have more of their best frontline troops who OTL were killed in France, Yugoslavia, and Greece.

NOTE: ITTL, Stalin line is in stronger shape, so this is a huge plus in the USSR's favor.

So, let's speculate a POD. France sends men to Finland sooner, occupies Narvik, Germany wins in Norway as they are welcomed, let's say with less losses to the Kriegsmarine, Finland still loses, France in Russia not on great terms but this is not a "WI GB bombs Baku scenario."

Hitler, in a fit of Hitlerness, thinks the poor Russian performance in Finland might make them ripe for the picking, while poor Wallied performance makes them not a threat. Let's say an additional POD is that German plans to attack the Wallies are captured and Germany simply cans the idea due to this. Additional POD to get this to "work." Germany catches wind that the USSR is going to attack Romania. So, Germany plans an invasion of Russia that starts during an invasion of Romania. If not, a contingency invasion of France is planned for August.* Soviets occupy the Baltic states in mid June which intensifies German planning.

*Note POD probably does not work because USSR unlikely to be aggressive without an active war in the West. Let's handwave this so I can write this post darn it.

Invasion of Romania begins on 6-28-40 triggering the German invasion (in defense of Romania.) Hungary stays neutral. Yugoslavia allows German access to Romania through their road network. Greece likewise stays neutral. Italy pledges significant amounts of men and armor (about 150,000) to assist Romania in their defense.

German attack plans are simple--an attack for Leningrad and Moscow, with the aim of forcing the Soviets to sign a Brest-Livtosk peace, a show of force so the Wallies then make peace. Germany commits all their armor. The Wermacht has approximately 160 divisions at this time, about 40 divisions left to defend Norway and Germany itself.

USSR has approximately 30 divisions stationed opposing Finland, 30 more in front of Romania, and approximately 15 in front of Hungary for defensive reasons. Facing the Germans, the Soviet's have approximately 85 divisions.

German attacks on 7/1/40 are extremely successful. They immediately liberate the Baltic states, with a spearhead led by Erwin Rommel. Leningrad falls on the march in five weeks due to Rommel's audacity in capturing Soviet supplies and extensive use of paratroopers. Likewise, the Germans smash through Russian defenses in Poland and move to Minsk easily, cutting a hole right through the Stalin Line. Smolensk falls also in five weeks. This begins a rout where the USSR abandons Stalin Line fortifications east of the Baltic states. Hungary and Finland join the war, though Ukraine nor Karelia have much of a role in this campaign. Stalin redeploys every man available including from the far east and conscriptable reserves, other than substantial reserves in Ukraine, to deploy in a Line in front of Smolensk by mid August to prepare for several spoiling attacks against the Germans.

By the first week of August, the Wallies begin a serious offenisve, but find German defense at the Westwall formidable and the Germans delay a Wallied breakout for three weeks.

By late August, German designs are on encircling Russian defenses in front of Moscow and then taking the city in a coup de main by the end of September. Aware that the German army would be running on fumes and a short logistical tether, the plan required that all Soviet mechanized forces be encircled and that the mechanzied force to take Moscow would be fueled mainly by air and otherwise be soldiers on foot and horse...not all that different than Napoleon's army 130 years previously.

The Germans easily overwhelm Russian defenses west of Smolensk, which were starting to go on offensive footing. Almost the entirety of the Russian army is surrounded at this point, a mere 50 miles before the Russian Capital. The German army, led by Guderian's small armored spearhead being supplied by air (as per his original intentions OTL), makes a play for Moscow in a coup de main.

Meanwhile, the Western Wallies break through towards the Rhine though they find that their airforces are overmatched by German air defense (Luftawaffe resources are approximately deployed 50 percent to the Western front at this point.) Production in the Rhine is unaffected by air attack, which is mostly deflected by German resistance, and proves resilient (as per OTL) to the first Wallied artillery deployments by mid September.

With only 90,000 Soviets left to defend the Moscow and the territory before it the battle does not devolve into a 1940-Stalingrad. Stalin flees to Sverdlovsk, Kuybyshev. At this point, Russia faces a full blown resurrection in Ukraine from nationalists, being propped by Hungary and Romania. Stalin sues for peace, granting Germany European Russia to approximately 60 miles east of Moscow. Germany forces a deal brokered in Ukraine, which gives Romania Odessa, Hungary gains in the Carpathians, the Germans the Crimean Peninsula, and an independent Ukrainian state (the Republic of Kiev) west of the Dniepr. Russia retains territory east of the Dnieper, including Kharkov. Massive yearly reparations and forgiveness of German debts are also agreed to. Peace is achieved by the end of September.

Western allied losses are significant during their western campaign and having lost air superiority, start being pounded by the air. Germany already began redeploying forces which logisitically could not go farther into Russia West. The Churchill Cabinet (which took over after Norwegian and German forces kicking them out of Norway) gives way to the Hailfax cabinet. They immediately enter peace talks with Germany as does France after Russian capitulation. An agreement is made that Germany recognizes Alaisce-Lorraine as part of France and make no additional claims to former African colonies. Germany agrees to this peace. The Coldwar is mostly an anti-German affair. The Soviet Union ultimately falls into the German sphere of influence. The Western bloc is considerably stronger, but weakens themselves in imperialist wars and occupations in Africa and South East Asia. Japan ends up fighting a war against Russia, embarrassingly losing. Japan goes between both sides in the cold war and in the 21st century is the world's largest economy, controlling the majority of China, as well as Korea and Taiwan.
 
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However, what German did OTL DID NOT WORK.

Except it clearly did: OTL 1940 the Germans rapidly knocked France out, sent British forces fleeing from the continent while the Soviets sat on the sidelines and were terrified into providing everything Germany needed for at least the next several years. If that's what "not working" is for the Germans, it'd be amazing to see what "working" would look like!

Now in 1941, they badly compromised their capabilities by attacking the USSR so to argue that they should attack the USSR before they've even knocked out France has rather obvious pitfalls.

So, let me try my best to argue that the OP might be a good idea for Germany (at the very least they lose way quicker and avoid so many civilian losses and the holocaust is greatly truncated.)

While Germany losing far faster and at far lesser cost is indeed a good thing, both for Germany, Europe, and the world as a whole, and what would happen, that is not what you proceed to argue. Leaving aside the impossibility.

1. Germany attack RUssia with the same amount of tanks they attacked France. Yes, German types had worse guns in 1940 to some degree, but so did the Soviets so let's say it is a wash.

This neglects to mention that the Germans are attacking with a whole lot fewer tanks then they did for Barbarossa... about half the amount.

2. No Battle of Britain = Luftwaffe WAY stronger ITTL.

More like marginally stronger quantitatively and a whole let less experienced, which on the whole really means weaker, as already noted.

3. No attack West means allies have to attack through short border with Germany through France. For one, France loses the force multiplier of the Maginot Line if they actually proceed from the range of its guns, the British were still another year away from mobilizing enough men to really take the attack to Germany, and even in the best case scenario the Wallies are not getting past the Rhine. Heck, in 1941 they probably would still prove to be unable to do it, and Germany has homefield advantage, air defense, plus a superior air force on their side. The Germans have radar, better aircraft, and the benefit of losing pilots on their own territory while the Wallies get attrited. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_in_World_War_II#Germany)

Only in the most immediate short term. Over the longer term, their stronger economies will easily allow them to build up air forces and armies that will crush whatever forces the Germans can put in their way, while the Germans hauling off and attacking their only potential supplier of raw materials see's them choke faster.

5. No Italy fighting the Wallies, allowing Germany another non-blockaded trading partner.

With which the Germans lack the currency reserves to trade with.

6. Russia's military build up is not complete and their recovery from the purge a year stunted from OTL.

The combination of combat experience and immediate mobilization will quickly cover for this, while the Germans are dragged down by their much greater lack of logistics, which even OTL 1941 proved inadequate to the task at hand.

The Germans, on the other hand, have more of their best frontline troops who OTL were killed in France, Yugoslavia, and Greece.

German losses in were so minor as to be more then offset by the considerable combat . Their best troops died ultimately died in Russia, not France/Yugoslavia/Greece.

NOTE: ITTL, Stalin line is in stronger shape, so this is a huge plus in the USSR's favor.

And yet your scenario proceeds to treat it pretty much as if it doesn't exist...

*snip unrealistic*

Reads like a fantasy which ignores the crippled state of German logistics that even permitted them their OTL success and which they only obtained from looting Western Europe while similarly ignoring the mobilization capacity of the Soviet Union once it kicks into war gear and it's ability to quickly learn the hard lessons of war. Far more realistic is the German invasion chokes on Soviet resistance and it's logistical inadequacy, sloshing to a halt after exhausting itself breaking through the Stalin line, then is crushed between the Anglo-French and Soviets by 1942.
 
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