German ignore Staraya Russai offensive in August 1941

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Deleted member 1487

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/the-staraya-russa-offensive-operation/
Historically the Soviets mounted an offensive in the first half of August 1941 against the flank of AG-North, targeting 16th army to relieve pressure on Leningrad, as the Germans were massing 4th Panzer Group to jump the Luga River Line and take Leningrad. Instead as the Soviets attacked they panicked AG-North's commander, von Leeb, diverting 56th Motorized Corps to assist 16th army. In the process they destroyed most of new Soviet 34th Army, which had bogged down badly in swamps and due to logistics being very inadequate. It would seem had the Germans just left the Soviet offensive to peter out on it's own due to logistics, they could have kept a fully massed 4th Panzer Group together to drive on Leningrad and potentially take it in August. But the diversion killed any chance to seriously take the city and all that was gained was a tactical victory and pilling up more Soviet PoWs and dead. It also pushed the 16th army further East to Demyansk and left them vulnerable to the Winter Counteroffensive.

AGN-1-31Aug-1024x680.jpg


What if von Leeb did not consider the threat of the Soviet offensive against 16th army an existential danger and just pushed ahead against Leningrad in early/mid-August instead, leaving 16th army to check the Soviets and when available help sent from 3rd Panzer Group, already engaged in operations further south? Could Leningrad have been taken? Would the Soviets have managed to push any further west or encircle parts of 16th army?
 

raharris1973

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Von Leeb seizes Leningrad and AG North holds against flank attacks. Mass atrocity in Leningrad. Loss of some Soviet special factories. The bulk of the frontage and the capabilities of both sides remain the same for the 1941 and 1942 campaigns.
 

Deleted member 1487

Von Leeb seizes Leningrad and AG North holds against flank attacks. Mass atrocity in Leningrad. Loss of some Soviet special factories. The bulk of the frontage and the capabilities of both sides remain the same for the 1941 and 1942 campaigns.
First of all thanks for responding, I was worried this would get ignored. So you don't think the Soviet 34th army would be able to push on and cut off 10th corps around Staraya Russa? This was the extent of Soviet penetration and the German 56th Motorized Corps' diversion apparently set back the offensive against Leningrad for 10 days:
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If 56th corps is not diverted and 10th Corps (which was pretty much all of 16th army at the time) wasn't cut off, but rather held, there would still be the problem of the Soviets holding a major bulge, but the Germans not really having a forces to budge them until either late August or some time in September after 3rd Panzer Army finished off the Soviet 22nd army further South. IOTL the 56th Corps and elements of 3rd Panzer combined to drive the Soviets back to Demyansk and the Valdai Hills, which can't happen here, at most 3rd Panzer can wipe out the bulge occupied by the Soviet 34th army as depicted above, but then the Soviets are much further west and south of their historic position on the flank of AG-Center right before Operation Typhoon. Perhaps then as part of Typhoon AG-North then would have to send all their Panzer/Motorized divisions south to clean up the flanks? Certainly moving on Tikhvin wouldn't be possible or really necessary if Leningrad actually fell, right?

Do you think though without the 10 day delay in August that Leningrad really would have fallen?
 

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Towelie

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Well, this is what I am not clear on. Did all of Army Group North just halt while a portion of it slapped away another silly Soviet counterattack, or did the rest of the group continue on to Leningrad and you are wondering if the diverted 56th Motorized Corps would have made the difference?

Because if the first is true, than I do think that the delay was fatal and that Leningrad could have been taken if the Army Group sans the 16th Army attacked Leningrad. But if the second is what happened, no, I don't think that the addition of one Motorized Corps would have made a huge difference in trying to take Leningrad. A far better strategy would have been to get an approach from the north of Leningrad using Finnish troops not constrained by area of operation along with a German expeditionary force along with the OTL advance. Leningrad would not have been able to hold on if Lake Ladoga was neutralized.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, this is what I am not clear on. Did all of Army Group North just halt while a portion of it slapped away another silly Soviet counterattack, or did the rest of the group continue on to Leningrad and you are wondering if the diverted 56th Motorized Corps would have made the difference?
18th army and 4th Panzer Group did some operations in the meantime, but the sources I saw say there was a 10 day delay and 56th Corps didn't participate until September in the North. So yes I am asking if the addition of 56th corps would have made a different to the delay and the August push on Leningrad. The Soviet counterattack was not silly, though it did cost the Soviets a lot of men, it did divert a motorized corps and arguably saved Leningrad

Because if the first is true, than I do think that the delay was fatal and that Leningrad could have been taken if the Army Group sans the 16th Army attacked Leningrad. But if the second is what happened, no, I don't think that the addition of one Motorized Corps would have made a huge difference in trying to take Leningrad. A far better strategy would have been to get an approach from the north of Leningrad using Finnish troops not constrained by area of operation along with a German expeditionary force along with the OTL advance. Leningrad would not have been able to hold on if Lake Ladoga was neutralized.
Well we know that 56th corps was not involved in the Leningrad push until after it culiminated in the siege.
https://books.google.com/books?id=DcoBAwAAQBAJ&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=german+56th+motorized+corps&source=bl&ots=ps5GCzHANA&sig=6wTbRLABuJt16ywqSgJmy8vNw_8&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjwgczuh57RAhXBx4MKHb8LDdsQ6AEISDAK#v=onepage&q=german 56th motorized corps&f=false

I've read there was a 10 day delay in part of the offensive against Leningrad. Rheinhardt's Panzer corps attacked on time, but the German push around Novogord was delayed by the lack of the 56th Motorized corps as I understand it. The 4th SS division eventually replaced the 56th Corps on the eastern part of the Luga and successfully attacked across the river 10 days after the 56th corps should have breached the line; I guess then elements of the 3rd Panzer Group from AG-Center showed up to support the SS division and fully replace 56th corps in that area. I'm reading a bad google translation of the Russian wikipedia article on the Leningrad Defensive Operation, which is the most detailed source I can find, but it is really confusing.

From what I can gather effectively the removal of 56th corps not only deprived the push on Leningrad of a major part of it's mobile striking power, but also delayed a major part of the operation until late August with the arrival of divisions from 3rd Panzer Group diverted from AG-Center for the operation. The remaining elements of 4th Panzer Group, as far as I understand it, did attack on time in August, but got caught up in hard fighting to breach the Luga River line, had 56th Corps been available to attack where it was supposed to it could have taken advantage of the Soviet distraction by the rest of 4th Panzer Group and breached the river line at another place and rolled it up, in the process aiding the bulk of the Panzer Group finish their operation earlier than IOTL.
http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/operation-barbarossa-and-operation-typhoona-brief-military-history/#The Luga Defence Line

As to the Finns, they wouldn't attack Leningrad for fear of losses, lack of desire to conquer Soviet territory, lack of desire to have to pay for any support for Soviet civilians if they conquered any Russian towns or cities, and were waiting to see if the Germans would actually be able to defeat the Soviets. Plus Soviet defenses north of Leningrad were quite stout and attacking East of lake Ladoga across the Svir river was not an option due to logistics.

Edit:
another option is to use the 39th Panzer Corps on the way to Leningrad against the Soviet troops at Staraya Russia instead of 56th corps.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Looks like the loss of two divisions to 16th army did delay the breakthrough on the Luga river west of Novgorod for some time, delaying the fall of Luga city itself to the 24th though on the 14th it was probably going to be taken swiftly, but for the diversion south of 56th Motorized Corps. The other factor was the loss of 8th Air Corps (Richthofen's unit) air support away from the drive on Leningrad/across the Luga river to help the 10th and 56th Corps fight the Soviets around Staraya Russa. Going by David Glantz's book on Barbarossa he says the Soviet push to cut the Dno-Staraya Russa rail line was about the high water mark of what was possible due to the lack of roads and CiC for Soviet forces launching the attack. Logistics and lack of communication in the swamps made it very tough if not impossible to advance much further if at all. I'm not sure if that is correct, but I've seen that now in a couple of sources.

An Osprey campaign book has an excellent 3D map of the push on Leningrad in August-September, but it is way too awkward to make a legible copy of to post here. My interpretation of the map suggests that had 56th Corps been available with the air support they took with them they would have been able to rip open the Soviet line around Luga city and to the east of it and turn the flank of Soviet defenses holding up 41st Panzer Corps further Northwest. I'm not sure if they would have reached Leningrad before defenses could be manned properly, but they could have easily cut off the city from the East at least 10 days earlier and would have a good shot to push over the Neva river and turn the last defensive line of the city from the East. The problem is whether the Germans could really afford to leave the Soviet 34th army so deep in their lines to the south and threatening the supply lines to the Leningrad advance. I'd think at 39th Panzer Corps sent from AG-Center on the 14th, not arriving until around the 24-25th of August IOTL, would have to make a detour on the way to Leningrad to cut off the Soviet 34th Army and roll back the Soviet Staraya Russa offensive, but not as far as the 56th Motorized did IOTL. That would then delay their appearance in support of the Leningrad offensive until September. I think effectively the 56th Motorized Corps would act as an earlier 39th Panzer Corps had they not been diverted, leaving the 39th Corps to help 16th army defeat and roll back the Staraya Russa offensive sans OTL air support. They would then appear later than IOTL, perhaps a week or so, and help out after 56th Corps already cut off Leningrad from the East perhaps 10 days earlier than IOTL (IOTL Leningrad was encircled on September 8th, so ITTL it would perhaps be as early as August 28th before the Soviets had as much as chance to reorganize their lines).

Again, I'm not sure if that would mean Leningrad actually falls though. It could just mean Soviet forces get messed up more than IOTL and Leningrad cut off earlier, but the Soviets responding to the quicker breach of their lines by falling back more quickly in their inner defense ring. I'm not clear on when Soviet armies were really formed though, as the Soviet 55th army, critical to the defense of Leningrad, was formed on September 1st, but the constituent divisions might have already existed, I can't find that out for sure. If they weren't ready, then the Soviet defenses of the city would have a major problem.
 
Correct me if wrong, but I seem to recall Voroshilov panicked in early September IOTL and nearly ordered the demolition of the factories along with the existing defenses. Presuming a quicker advance and collapse of Soviet defenses before the city, perhaps he orders such sooner and it actually gets carried out in this ATL?
 

Deleted member 1487

Correct me if wrong, but I seem to recall Voroshilov panicked in early September IOTL and nearly ordered the demolition of the factories along with the existing defenses. Presuming a quicker advance and collapse of Soviet defenses before the city, perhaps he orders such sooner and it actually gets carried out in this ATL?
Could be. Zhukov did counteract that order, but would he be dispatched in time with a quicker German advance? IOTL Voroshilov didn't report the encirclement of Leningrad on September 8th, Stalin had to hear it announced on German radio and I think that was the triggering event to send Zhukov, who was engaged with the Yelyna offensive. If Manstein gets to Shlisselberg sooner and breaches the Neva then I think there is no stopping Voroshilov from blowing up the city and scuttling the fleet. Then it's all over quickly probably without even heavy street fighting. But it is an if whether Manstein could get there 7-10 early, especially if the 39th Corps is delayed fighting around Staraya Russa. It is also another big if whether the Neva could be jumped that quickly too; if it were then it's game over, Voroshilov would panic before Zhukov could arrive and that is it. If Zhukov can get there in time then who knows what would happen.
 
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Could be. Zhukov did counteract that order, but would he be dispatched in time with a quicker German advance? IOTL Voroshilov didn't report the encirclement of Leningrad on September 8th, Stalin had to hear it announced on German radio and I think that was the triggering event to send Zhukov, who was engaged with the Yelyna offensive. If Manstein gets to Shlisselberg sooner and breaches the Neva then I think there is no stopping Voroshilov from blowing up the city and scuttling the fleet. Then it's all over quickly probably without even heavy street fighting. But it is an if whether Manstein could get there 7-10 early, especially if the 39th Corps is delayed fighting around Staraya Russa. It is also another big if whether the Neva could be jumped that quickly too; if it were then it's game over, Voroshilov would panic before Zhukov could arrive and that is it. If Zhukov can get there in time then who knows what would happen.

Presuming Stalin does pull Zhukov, how does that effect the battle at Yelyna as well as the drive on Moscow following Kiev? I know you've noted before that even just a few days earlier advance on Moscow could prove decisive, so do you think its possible the Germans could take both Leningrad and Moscow before the end of the year in this ATL?
 

Deleted member 1487

Presuming Stalin does pull Zhukov, how does that effect the battle at Yelyna as well as the drive on Moscow following Kiev? I know you've noted before that even just a few days earlier advance on Moscow could prove decisive, so do you think its possible the Germans could take both Leningrad and Moscow before the end of the year in this ATL?
Yelnya is pretty much going according to plan by late August so it isn't going to affect much other than perhaps the coordination of it being more ham handed than IOTL. Since Zhukov left to Leningrad IOTL on September 8th just as Yelnya finished and before Kiev really kicked off the operations around Smolensk and Kiev won't change much other than losing some professional coordination between Fronts.
If Leningrad falls and say 39th Panzer Corps fills 56th Motorized Corps' shoes ITTL around Staraya Russia, just a few days later, then the big difference is that the Soviets had just taken a massive blow with the loss of Leningrad, both materially and psychologically. I'm sure Stalin will order immediate counter attacks to relieve it but the damage already suffered by units east of the Leningrad pocket IOTL were too worn down to do much. 18th army will be locked down for a while mopping up the Leningrad area, but can hold in the East, while 4th Panzer Group is totally removed from the scene, so is stronger for Moscow and could potentially be strong enough to be decisive in October along the Smolensk-Moscow highway thrust. The loss of Leningrad in September also is early and gives the Panzers and Luftwaffe time to recover before Moscow too, more than IOTL.

I don't know if this is decisive or how the fall of Leningrad would impact Operation Typhoon on both sides, but it will not be good for the Soviets by October, as Leningrad will be mopped up and a major infantry thrust by 18th army against Volkhov and Tihkvin toward the Svir river and linking up with the Finns will overload Soviet troops in the region and initiate the conditions to take Murmansk by Spring 1942. Not having most of 18th army bogged down screening Leningrad in September-October means AG-North has a lot of excess strength compared to OTL to use on the attack east in October AND to strengthen 16th army around Demysansk and the Valdai Hills so a Soviet breakthrough there is unlikely come winter (if it happens at all). If both Leningrad and Moscow fall in 1941 then the Winter counterattack by the Soviets is not happening, Murmansk will be isolated and unavailable for LL, and a huge part of Soviet industry, labor, and manpower will be gone, plus their rail and telephone communications hub of Moscow will be gone (plus probably a bunch of rolling stock and their all weather air fields). IMHO that would start the breakup of the USSR. Stalin and the Soviet regime being unable to hold the capital and city of the Revolution will effectively be fatal to the regime. Holding both IOTL kept the Soviets in the game, especially as the capital was just so vital to industry and rail movement. Psychologically it might be the start of the breakdown of the Soviet military, as Soviet soldiers then believe the war is lost; this isn't 1812 when Moscow as of minor importance (plus Leningrad would have fallen, while in 1812 St. Petersburg was untouched by Napoleon). I don't know if Moscow would have fallen, but it is much more possible if Leningrad is already off the table, especially in early September.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Question--doesn't a German capture of Leningrad significantly improve the Germans' logistical situation in Russia?
 

Deleted member 1487

Question--doesn't a German capture of Leningrad significantly improve the Germans' logistical situation in Russia?
Sort of, but not in 1941 for the most part. In 1941 the Gulf of Leningrad was severely mined, plus given the situation Leningrad's fleet and docks would be destroyed, which further wrecks the ability to import via that area. Not only that, but in winter the Baltic Sea ices over so shipping in a lot of areas is pretty much impossible without major icebreaker usage, which include the Gulf of Finland. IOTL even clearing out the Baltic ports took months due to all the Soviet mines. Now in the sense that it removes a HUGE amount of demand for supplies from AG-North, then yes it will free up some rail capacity for use by AG-Center via rail lines on the flank. Forces could be moved away from the Leningrad area and moved to places that rail supply was better. Also it is likely that a fair bit of rolling stock would be captured in Leningrad, plus a bunch of supplies and weapons within Leningrad. More than 1000 AAA guns could be shipped back to Germany too, plus the huge effort to interdict the Gulf of Finland by sea and air could be stopped. Air Fleet 1 supporting AG-North could probably then give up some units to AG-Center too. Most of the benefits though would take until 1942 to really be realized, as probably by Summer 1942 the Port of Leningrad could be reopened in some capacity. Plus the Nazis being the lovely people that they were they'd remove a huge part of the population for work in other areas and probably leave the rest to starve and remove that logistical 'burden'.

For the Finns, not having Leningrad to worry about they could demobilize a large part of their troops to work on farms and such and get off dependency on German supplies for a fair few things. Plus they could free up more rail supply and men for going after Murmansk, though Leningrad falling in September is too late to really do more than cut the Murmansk Rail line.
 
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