German Fleet Post Great War W/O German Defeat

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I also think that unless the High Seas Fleet has been curb stomped in a Jutland rematch or something the war will in some way be seen as a justification for the fleet because it kept a large chunk of the Royal Navy tied up at Scapa Flow for most of the war and therefore unable to create mischief elsewhere.

Like so many other things in this there are some broad variables. It may be some German naval victories contribute to the early & more even end of the war.

A subset of this is both sides have substantial damage & losses to their fleets, that they are weaker & less sustainable fleets post war. This includes a high portion not worth keeping operational past 1920-25. The decisions made in those years and strategy/doctrines/programs selected would be different from those were the two fleets as intact as OTL, or better. Either way is possible here.
 
To get something close to a Status Quo Ante Bellum, including colonies, I'd expect that German boots will still be on French soil, thus giving Germany something to offer back in exchange for some colonies returned.

I agree that Japan would be very unwilling to return the colonies they took without a very good reason. The USA leaning towards getting into the war on the side of the Central Powers might be enough, especially if said belligerence was seen by Japan as an excuse for the USA to grab pieces of the Pacific. Germany could say, "We want it back, or we aren't ready to talk, and the USA is looking at taking those islands. Will they stop once they get there?"

As Germany, I'd want to keep the 15" gun ships, the Mackensens, the 12" gun battlecruisers, and perhaps the Konig class. The Kaisers and the 11" battlecruisers are salable, or perhaps the 11" battlecruisers would be suitable for conversion to experimental fast carriers. They're fast enough to keep up with the fleet, and mostly useless as combat ships. If the Ersatz Yorks are far enough along, complete them, or perhaps build one of them as a carrier instead of an older battlecruiser--but only if the ship isn't too far along, and the Reischstag doesn't want to pay to complete them as Large Cruisers.

Continue to work on the guns for the L20 Alpha, but don't lay the ships down. Instead, learn from the war experience, and only then, lay down some new hulls. There's no need to build an expeditionary fleet, Germany's vital interests are in Europe.

I suggest keeping the Konigs to show the flag in foreign stations.

Light units--a few decent cruisers for freign stations and showing the flag. If raiding is a plan, make sure that they can use captured fuel, which, in 1920, recommends against diesel.

Just some random thoughts there :)
 
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I'm not convinced there will be one. A white peace creates a much more different dynamic post-war.
I think there will be one ITL. Yeah post-war there will be a lot of hurt feelings but also every save for the US is deeply in debt from the war. A naval treaty along the lines of the Washington Naval Treaty IMO is likely, but not as tight as the OTL treaty. The tonnage allotments are likely to be higher than the 5:5:3:1.75:1.75 of OTL. It also likely to see no building holiday like OTL, but limits new builds per nation to say two cap ships being built at any one time and limited to treaty rules, which will be a lot higher than OTL instead of the repressive 35,000 tons displacement and 14 inch main guns. Say 45,000 tons and 16 inch main guns. Further cruisers are likely to have more freedom in design as they will have more tonnage and larger caliber guns to work with than OTL.

The ITL Washington Naval Treaty is likely to be a very different beast than the OTL. I have designed one in my current pre-1900 New Balance TL which has different details than this but still a lot of hurt feelings all around.
 
If there is such a treaty all sides will be taking a close look at service extention of their legacy fleets. squeezing a extra decade out of the survivors will be popular with the politicians. That could lead to some flawed and compromised warships & classes afloat as the 1920s run out. 'Sorry, just not enough money. Upgrading the armor only 15% will be almost as good.'
 
Scrapping the prewar component of the Hochseeflotte .

The historical scrapping values were mindboggling. It could certainly finance completion of unfinished warships and modernize enough of the rest; to have a dangerous post war fleet through the 1920s. The real question would be which direction ? As the first posts of this thread indicate there are key areas needed to explored.
 
... The real question would be which direction ? As the first posts of this thread indicate there are key areas needed to explored.

Not certain but the Germans may follow the Brit & French example and establish more sustainable naval bases in the colonies. Losing the Asiatic fleet in 1914 was a symptom of not having a base that could survive more that a few weeks before being overrun. This allows any future naval war to be complicated by a more extended 'cruiser' warfare. This could lead to experimenting with larger high capacity/range cruiser type submersibles.
 
As for the Imperial German Navy a lot of the older ships will be scrapped. That means all pre- dreadnoughts and a lot of the older battleships that were armed with 11 inch guns Perhaps like the Royal Navy at least one or two of the Battle cruisers might be converted to carriers. Germany would have to develop new cruisers.
Any Washington Naval treaty would see a lot more fights between the parties over tonnage.
 
Economic and domestic political realities are going to affect the fleets size & composition more than anything else. If the post war slump such as occured 1922-24 is worse than OTL then the voters will be less tolerant of high military spending. Even tho a fleet rehab means jobs in manufactoring and the shipyards that is a narrow segment of the labor force & the rest will be less tolerant of rising taxes & reduction of government service elsewhere. There is also the post war disillusionment & revived peace movement. If that is as large as OTL a lot of people are not going to approve of military spending whatever amount it is or the results.
 
I doubt the WNT as we know it would come about as early as it did in OTL, if at all. I DO expect minor powers to be lining up for the inevitable fire sail of ships though, from whomever will sell them. The post war world will be very tense indeed, and the smaller nations aren't going to want to be left defenseless against their neighbors.
 
Digging through Erich Groner’s volumes on the GERMAN FLEET from 1870-1945, many of the scrapping value of the imperial fleet are included around 1919-21.


From this scrapping a price per ton can be determined and thus what the value of scrapping the bulk of the Hochseeflotte. Broadly speaking everything built until mid war is scrapped in order to continue building the last batches of each class of warships.


41 pre dreadnaughts & protected Kreuzer’s. Estimate ~215 million RM

28 old pre war Kreuzer’s @ estimated 28 million RM.

189 +97 Coastal & Ocean going Torpedoboot @ estimated 66 million RM

39 MBoot 1914-1916; estimated 40 million RM.

46 FMBoot estimated @ 46 million RM

78 F1 boats estimated @ 18 million RM

180 U-Boats estimated @ 139 million RM.


Post war fleet budget based on 1919-1921 figures should be an estimated 553 million RM.


Ships not scrapped should include

Grob Kreuzer’s: Von Moltke + Seydlitz+ Derfflinger & Hindenburg.

Battleships Bayern & Baden

In addition the Light Kreuzer’s ; 4 x Königsberg + 2 x Koln plus 2 Brummer ; 2 Wiesbaden & 2 Pillau Kreuzer’s. About 70 minesweepers of the Mineboot 1916 class would be spared from scrappers yard.



This allows post war naval building program through the 1920s......



Complete all 4 Makensen battle cruisers @ 157 Million RM

Complete 2 of the 3 Yorck class battle cruisers @ 135 Million RM

Complete last two Bayern Battleships @ 21 Million RM.

Complete the last 8 Koln Kreuzer’s @ 40 MRM.

Complete the entire class of 42 x V170 Gross Torpedoboot @ 126 MRM.

Complete 60 U-Boats of the U-81. U-117 ; U127 & U-161 classes.@ cost of 38+36 Million RM.
 
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