German Economy Sans nazis & WWII

This has been occasionally approached before with modest results. Assuming the retention of a republican system for Germany, how much economic growth might there have been by 1945-50 for Germany? How much lost ground in this can be recovered?
 

Deleted member 1487

This has been occasionally approached before with modest results. Assuming the retention of a republican system for Germany, how much economic growth might there have been by 1945-50 for Germany? How much lost ground in this can be recovered?
Depends what happens in 1933 and on without the Nazis in charge. Germany doesn't get Austria or Czech territory/money and relies on more of a market based solution to the Great Depression. They were being screwed by economic policies of the US, so would really suffer if they didn't have Schacht getting a position as Economics Minister and had of the Reichsbank to make barter deals and default on US loans. Even the Hoover Moratorium wasn't enough and without the Nazis promoting Keynesian stimulus the German economy likely flounders through the 1930s until better, more free trade type policies are pushed by other nations. I'm not sure the republican system in Germany could survive without some sort of Keynesian stimulus which even the SPD I think wasn't offering. Even the cyclic upswing that started in late 1932 would have been relatively minor even if the economy improved. Once the debt payments restarted Germany would jump right back in the toilette.

So I'm not sure we can give you a solid for sure answer, but it might be a significantly work 1930s for Germany without the Nazis actually, but in the long term without the war destruction a much richer long term Germany, one that works within the international system. Certainly they'd have significantly more market penetration all over Europe with a much more diffuse German diaspora that isn't ashamed of being German post-WW2 and not kicked out/killed by the victorious nations.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Despite all the probelms, Germany was florishing like never before and after in science, engineering and art, and it certainly was only a matter of time before this was was going to turn into a lot of hard currency. So I think a surviving Weimar Republic was a hell of a missed opportunity.
 
The ToV would have continued to successfully keep Germany a second to third rate economic and military power for at least a generation or two, but after that who knows.
 
That would also be without the Marshall Plan as well.

There was not a clear light at the end of the tunnel for Americans when it came to the Great Depression in 1938 and I suspect it would have lingered even in America at least for another decade or so sans war spending.

With Germany it's even harder to predict as you have a population totally demoralized, the ToV and several consecutive economic blows. Telling Germans it had bottomed out everything was ready to rebound in 1932-1933 was not something they were going to believe and the evidence of it wasn't particularly strong.

Which in the end was why...

Germany-unemployment.jpg~original
 
The ToV would have continued to successfully keep Germany a second to third rate economic and military power for at least a generation or two, but after that who knows.

Depends are French willingful discuss about the treaty on some point and how much Germany is pushing against some terms. Even in OTL Hitler systemically violated several articlas of TOV and anybody didn't anything. So there is good changes that someone strong German chancellor is able begin negotiations with French.
 
Depends are French willingful discuss about the treaty on some point and how much Germany is pushing against some terms. Even in OTL Hitler systemically violated several articlas of TOV and anybody didn't anything. So there is good changes that someone strong German chancellor is able begin negotiations with French.

You needed someone who could inspire the German people to believe in themselves and their nation again, someone who could strong arm the French with carrots and sticks into backing down on ToV terms, but a democrat who was uninterested in an actual war.

It's doable of course, but there were no obvious choices from the 1930 German political field for doing it.
 
...
It's doable of course, but there were no obvious choices from the 1930 German political field for doing it.

Equally important is the lack of any French leader willing to see this course. Post 1924, after it became apparent the Entente had fallen apart & France had no support from the principles for enforcing the ToV, one option for French security was to negotiate a new peace with the current German governments. The course they did take was based on the bogeyman of German militarism. that is keep up a large conscript army, maintain a large airforce, build a massive fortification system...
 
On the industrial side, how well positioned was Germany in electrical technology in the 1920s? Was there a possibility of dominating electrical technology and global production during the 1940s or 50s?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
On the industrial side, how well positioned was Germany in electrical technology in the 1920s? Was there a possibility of dominating electrical technology and global production during the 1940s or 50s?
Strongest in Europe by far, only behind the US and fat superior to Britain
 
Strongest in Europe by far, only behind the US and fat superior to Britain

Thanks to global tariffs put up after the Great Depression it doesn't mean much for the German economy as nations were protecting their own from outsiders.
 
Last edited:
Top