What were the short and long term prospects ? I've seen opinions that Germany lacked the surplus cash flow or deep capitol reserves to keep up its pre 1914 growth. Any experts here able to discuss this?
What were the short and long term prospects ? I've seen opinions that Germany lacked the surplus cash flow or deep capitol reserves to keep up its pre 1914 growth. Any experts here able to discuss this?
Its not as if Germany has lack of access to outside credit if needed and it's growth was actually pretty low pre-1914. The claims about the lack of German capital are in relation to foreign investment, they kept their capital at home and in A-H to develop domestic industries or related ones in Austria that supplied Germany. Access to cheap raw materials via Russia was no problem. Capital isn't the issue as much as foreign export markets and the large outflow of German middle class people (something like 200k people per year) to English or Spanish language nations outside of Europe (primarily USA and South America). The reason Germany was so gungho about colonies was that it needed market access to keep it's economy growing, as the internal markets of the German Empire were not sufficient to sustain it and they were maxing out what markets they did have access to outside the colonial system or tariff walls. Really Germany did need major internal reform and bi-lateral trade deals, which would mean the ending of agricultural protectionism, which the Junkers wouldn't allow and were still a major political interest, to get access for their industries abroad. The US under Wilson right before WW1 started had finally started reducing US tariffs unilaterally, so perhaps without WW1 Germany could get greater access to the US markets, but German industry was limited in what sectors it could compete with US industries. One of the major ones would be pharmaceuticals, so going forward without the loss of their patents, specifically with aspirin, taken as war booty in 1919, Germany inflows of foreign profits would still be very high. It is just a question of keeping up growth to feel German national economic expansion.What were the short and long term prospects ? I've seen opinions that Germany lacked the surplus cash flow or deep capitol reserves to keep up its pre 1914 growth. Any experts here able to discuss this?
Not a given.Not an expert here, but I think it depends when Austria falls apart and if it gets annexed into the Reich.
Vienna was no more a financial center than Frankfurt or Berlin, nor was it cut off from investing in Germany; in fact it was Germany investing more in A-H due to greater German capital availability that helped drive Austrian 20th century economic growth, which was the highest in Europe, higher than Russia even in real terms.IIRC, with Vienna being a major financial Center in Europe, itso inclusion as a Reichsgau would probably mean a large infusion of its and the states cash reserves meaning subsidized growth could keep going well into the 30s.
In fact Germany had so much internal capital available that it could fight the war to the end without foreign loans, unlike France, Russia and the UK.What were the short and long term prospects ? I've seen opinions that Germany lacked the surplus cash flow or deep capitol reserves to keep up its pre 1914 growth. Any experts here able to discuss this?
Well, they did have the gold stocks of the Ottomans, Bulgarians, and A-Hs turned over to them to manage for alliance war purchasing, like how the UK was the financier for the Entente until the US joined in. That enabled Germany to spend freely with all the nearby neutrals and transship through them for a while; by the end they blew through all of the gold of their allies and most of their own on foreign purchasing and never paid back any of it because the Ottomans and A-Hs ceased to exist as governments, while Bulgaria was too small and messed up to get anything back, while the Allies have full claim to the remainder of German gold, most of which was taken in reparations by 1921.In fact Germany had so much internal capital available that it could fight the war to the end without foreign loans, unlike France, Russia and the UK.
Well, they did have the gold stocks of the Ottomans, Bulgarians, and A-Hs turned over to them to manage for alliance war purchasing, like how the UK was the financier for the Entente until the US joined in. That enabled Germany to spend freely with all the nearby neutrals and transship through them for a while; by the end they blew through all of the gold of their allies and most of their own on foreign purchasing and never paid back any of it because the Ottomans and A-Hs ceased to exist as governments, while Bulgaria was too small and messed up to get anything back, while the Allies have full claim to the remainder of German gold, most of which was taken in reparations by 1921.
They didn't import except via Germany, who controlled the alliance's foreign imports. All the CPs printed money or taxed to finance internal production. That's why Germany had huge inflation issues during and immediately after the war; that bled right into the Entente taking the rest of Germany's gold in ToV reparations in 1920 in the first payment while demanding they kept to the gold standard instead of free floating their currency. Disaster ensued.So if Germany took all the A-H, Ottoman and Bulgarian money to spend itself... how did A-H, Ottomans and Bulgaria pay for their own bills during the war?