German East Asia Squadron

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Deleted member 9338

This is a question for the community as a whole. I am working on a timeline that involves German East Asia Squadron returning to Tsingtao after the raid on Papeete. After refueling in the outer Hawaiian Islands, the squadron returns to disrupt the siege. At an economical speed they would arrive on or about the 25th of October 1914.

As there were six pre-dreadnaughts on duty for the siege it would be a tall order for Graf Spee to destroy the supply network between Japan and Tsingtao. But if it were assumed that two were on escort duty and two were off of Tsingtao it it is possible for the engagement would be between two pre-dreadnoughts and assorted armored cruisers and the two modern armored cruisers. It would be even better if the Germans could make their escape and act as a fleet in being, or at least in the neighborhood.

So is this a plausible approach or just ASB?
 
I was thinking the Japanese would be pulling all the stops out in any sort of assault on Tsingtao. Far better for the German cruisers to be employed in commerce raiding farther away from any sizable opposition. SMS Emden, for instance, racked up quite a catch in the Indian Ocean, and the British were powerless to do anything about it.

German holdings in China are far too sparsely defended to even waste the resources on, and I think raiding British trade routes in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is the most cost effective measure.
 
I'm not sure why von Spee would be zig zagging across the Pacific rather than just trying to high tail it home as in OTL. The Scharnhorst and Gneisenau are not modern armoured cruisers - for the Germans only the Blucher really falls into that category.

Historically his forces coaled at Easter Island on their way to South America. He did prove to be a fleet in being and tied up Entente naval forces in the theater.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
That is what I am trying to do, delay the final occupation of Tsing Tao.
That's Chinese, not Pacific. How on earth did you mix that up :confused:

But while we're at the subject, the preoccupation of the IJN with the German might give Australia the time to be the ones occupying the German Pacific Islands. This could possibly butterfly away the Advance South strategy, making Japan focused mainly on the USSR.
 

Flubber

Banned
Historically his forces coaled at Easter Island on their way to South America.


Coal and time are the key issue here and Spee's visit to Easter Island neatly illustrates the lengths to which his squadron had to go in order to be supplied with both without also revealing their existence to the Entente.

First, Spee received coal from colliers sent to Easter Island by German authorities and not from any coal supply ashore there. (There wouldn't have been enough coal ashore for the squadron anyway.) The rendezvous had been arranged during earlier visits to Honolulu and San Francisco by single warships Spee detached from the squadron.

Second, Easter Island had been chosen because it's remote and because, in 1914, it had no communications with the outside world beyond messages carried by ship. That lack of communications allowed Spee to remain off Easter Island, a possession of neutral Chile, as long as he required.

Shifting the coal from the colliers to the warships, and the limited repairs which attempted, took the squadron over a week, a week Spee wouldn't have been allowed in a neutral port which had communications with the rest of the world.

Spee isn't going to find enough coal on some outlying Hawaiian island and he isn't going to have the time to fully coal from colliers off some outlying Hawaiian island. All those islands are either connected by telegraph cable directly to Oahu or visited regularly enough by other vessels. Sppe isn't going to be able to anchor for over a week without the US enforcing it's neutrality and announcing to the world just where Spee happens to be.

As for Japan somehow focusing on the USSR, Siberia didn't have either the suspected or the developed resources the Southern Advance Area already had and the USSR had already kicked the IJA's collective ass so badly that even those psychotics didn't want a rematch.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
As for Japan somehow focusing on the USSR, Siberia didn't have either the suspected or the developed resources the Southern Advance Area already had and the USSR had already kicked the IJA's collective ass so badly that even those psychotics didn't want a rematch.

However, without the Southern Sea Mandate, the entire ideological basis of the IJN will be focused on Taiwan, then therefore the Asian continent. As such, the Advance South as we know it will not be the same. Most likely all focus will be on China and Indochina, at the most, and not the Pacific War.
 

Flubber

Banned
However, without the Southern Sea Mandate, the entire ideological basis of the IJN will be focused on Taiwan, then therefore the Asian continent.


Japan owned Taiwan well before receiving those post-Versailles mandates and the Asian continent in the form of China had always been the focus.

As such, the Advance South as we know it will not be the same.

There will be a few more island groups that need to be targeted, nothing more.

Most likely all focus will be on China and Indochina, at the most, and not the Pacific War.

All the focus was on China and the vast majority of Japanese combat power spent the war in China. The rationale behind grabbing the Southern Resource Area was so that the war in China could be prosecuted despite the various Western embargoes.

Not grabbing the Carolines and Marshalls from Germany in 1914 isn't going to change that much. China is still the long term target, Japan's activities there are still going to produce Western embargoes, and the resources Japan needs to fight in China are still found in the Southern Resource Area.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
You're missing the big picture here. The IJN was able to pressure the Diet and the IJA for funds to build up a navy using the Southern Mandate as a reason, and the basic clash between Advance North and Advance South fundamentally led to the existence of two hypothetical enemies (USSR and USA), splitting resources while allowing the young generation of the IJN to pressure for the end of the Washington Treaty system. Basically, without the mandate, the IJN would never have the autonomy of the IJA as it did in OTL, with the result being that almost all resources will be concentrated on building up the Kantogun. This fundamentally changes the balance of power within Manchuria, meaning the Soviet-Japanese clashes can have different results, or the invasion of China might be done on a more ready basis.

By focusing only on the economic/military aspect, you've missed the domestic politics that dominated the allocation of resources, which could have pushed Japan towards a different direction from OTL. The Mandate wasn't just about land: It was about the core values, strategy, and goal of the IJN, which in turned determined the direction of Japanese politics.
 

Deleted member 9338

Coal and time are the key issue here and Spee's visit to Easter Island neatly illustrates the lengths to which his squadron had to go in order to be supplied with both without also revealing their existence to the Entente.

Thank you, I need to do more research on the re-coaling that was done at Easter Island. I did not realise that they spent a week doing that. I was thinking they could have recoaled at Midway Island in one to two days.
 

Flubber

Banned
Thank you, I need to do more research on the re-coaling that was done at Easter Island. I did not realise that they spent a week doing that. I was thinking they could have recoaled at Midway Island in one to two days.


Glad I could help in some small way.

Remember, it's not just the time needed, it's also whether there's coal available too. Not every flyspeck in the Pacific is going to have a few thousand tons of coal piled neatly waiting for von Spee and his squadron. When they coaled at Easter Island, they coaled from waiting colliers that German consuls in various cities/countries had hired and dispatched to Easter Island at von Spee's request.
 

Flubber

Banned
You're missing the big picture here.


No, I'm not. There is nothing Japan needs readily available in Siberia and, after a multi-year occupation in support of the Whites, Japan most certainly knows that

This fundamentally changes the balance of power within Manchuria...
No, it doesn't. The Red Army is materially, technically, and organizationally superior to the IJA. Japan simply cannot match it tank for tank, plane for plane, or artillery piece for artillery piece. The only Japanese of the period who failed to see this were the psychotic field grade officers who routinely manufactured border incidents and even they finally acknowledged reality after Khalkhin Gol.

... meaning the Soviet-Japanese clashes can have different results...
They won't. If a few more tanks, guns, planes, and men means the IJA's field grade officers take a bigger crack at the USSR, all that will happen is that the IJA will lose more tanks, guns, planes, and men.

... or the invasion of China might be done on a more ready basis.
Which won't mean a thing as Japan cannot defeat China.

By focusing only on the economic/military aspect, you've missed the domestic politics that dominated the allocation of resources...
I'm focusing on the resources themselves, the resources that simply do not exist in the quantities necessary to make the changes you propose. The "pie" Japan is sharing out between the IJA and IJN is so very small that politically directed changes to the size of each "slice" isn't going to amount to shit.

The Mandate wasn't just about land: It was about the core values, strategy, and goal of the IJN, which in turned determined the direction of Japanese politics.
The IJN is the senior service, it will get it's ships if only to able to project Japan's power along China's huge and relatively undefended sea coast. The IJN may not get the full number of warships seen in the OTL, but they will get enough and the resources "saved" by laying down one less BB, one less CV, or fewer CAs won't miraculously improve the IJA's ability to tackle the USSR or China.

Japan cannot knock the USSR out of northeast Asia, besides the fact that Siberia contains none of the resources Japan needs. Japan also cannot force China to submit. When the China morass occurs and the Western embargoes begin, Japan will be forced to strike for the only resources readily available to it in the Southern Resource Area.

Whether a post-WW1 Japan has or hasn't a mandate for the Carolines, Marianas, Marshalls, or Palau isn't going to change that much and it most certainly won't send Japan charging north into the arms of the Red Bear.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
That's Chinese, not Pacific. How on earth did you mix that up :confused:

But while we're at the subject, the preoccupation of the IJN with the German might give Australia the time to be the ones occupying the German Pacific Islands. This could possibly butterfly away the Advance South strategy, making Japan focused mainly on the USSR.


All the focus was on China and the vast majority of Japanese combat power spent the war in China. The rationale behind grabbing the Southern Resource Area was so that the war in China could be prosecuted despite the various Western embargoes.

Not grabbing the Carolines and Marshalls from Germany in 1914 isn't going to change that much. China is still the long term target, Japan's activities there are still going to produce Western embargoes, and the resources Japan needs to fight in China are still found in the Southern Resource Area.



With Australia getting the smaller Islands, then the USA does not freak out about the Japanese getting Yap Island. It was a major issues in the paper complete with editorial cartoons. About this same time, California starts to pass laws against Japanese immigrants and Japanese-Americans. This issue was a big deal after WW1, and the lack of this early friction point could improve USA/Japan relations. Maybe instead of Plan Orange being the focus of the Navy in the 1920's and 1930's, it could be just one of many threats planned against. With Japan not being the USA's main threat in the pre-war years, FDR policies could be a lot different. With no embargo and a less tense but still not friendly USA/Japan dynamic, Japan could have easily been planning the Northern Strategy for Spring of 1942.
 

Cook

Banned
You're missing the big picture here.
The thread is discussing the Japanese capture of Tsingtao in 1914, not events more than fifteen years later (and more than ten years after the Japanese handed Tsintao over to the Chinese after finding it to be uneconomical to own.)
 

Flubber

Banned
Maybe instead of Plan Orange...


I know I and the others explained to you in the "What if the US Pacific Fleet remained based on the West Coast over 1940-1?" thread that Orange never existed much past the 1920s. It's something that has been repeatedly explained in threads of this kind at this forum for years.

With Japan not being the USA's main threat in the pre-war years...

Japan's ambitions in the Far East during the period were at odds with every other imperial power, the US included. Furthermore, Japan's designs on China, a nation which enjoyed an influential and powerful political lobby in the US during the period, cannot help but antagonize the US.

... Japan could have easily been planning the Northern Strategy for Spring of 1942.

Even Japan's militarists were not that insane. At the time there was nothing Japan needed in the Soviet Far East and Japan knew it.

Do not confuse what resources we pull out of Siberia in 2011 with what resources were available in 1941.
 

Sumeragi

Banned

The thread is discussing the Japanese capture of Tsingtao in 1914, not events more than fifteen years later (and more than ten years after the Japanese handed Tsintao over to the Chinese after finding it to be uneconomical to own.)

Personally, I would say Tsingtao would be of no big significance, since attempting to fight around in the Yellow Sea amounts to suicide. It'll only be like a week or two before being sunk, and everything goes as it did in OTL. It's the side effects that would of importance in my view.
 

Flubber

Banned
Personally, I would say Tsingtao would be of no big significance, since attempting to fight around in the Yellow Sea amounts to suicide.


Agreed.

It'll only be like a week or two before being sunk, and everything goes as it did in OTL. It's the side effects that are important.

Again, agreed.

Would Japan get more at Versailles if her navy is the one which destroys the East Asia Squadron?
 

NothingNow

Banned
So is this a plausible approach or just ASB?


It's suicide, with that much of the IJN in the area, and the need to pass by the home islands themselves.

If Admrial Spee wants to be more effective, and last long enough to really cause trouble, he's going to need to split the squadron up even more, than IOTL, and/or begin to engage in raids on Troop Convoys and larger scale commerce raiding, while hopefully remaining disbursed enough that it'll be extremely difficult to track the whole fleet down. Just look at the Chaos the Emden caused during her cruise.

As for treaty stuff, it might help shut the Officers of the Home fleet up, and win the IJN a bit more prestige, but it probably won't do anything to improve their position at Versailles if the US is still a major member of the Entente. Japan played a fairly massive role IOTL, and freed up enough ships for the Home Fleet to be effective in enforcing the blockade and keeping the HSF in harbor for the most part.
 
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