German defensive strategy after Cobra August 1944

This TL assumes after the Allied break from Normandy, the Germans don't do Falaise counter attack and in Romania pull back to the Carpathian - Danube line before the Soviet assault. This avoids the destruction of German 7th army and panzer group west in France and also 6th army in Romania. With these formations mostly still intact how long can Germany hold out???
 
Depends on how quickly 3rd Army can get over the Seine. In the East depends on how much more blood are the Russians willing to spend. So I'd give the German maybe up to August 45.
 
Fight as hard as possible in Poland while letting the US and UK run in.
That's what sane German Leadership would do, knowing that a loss is coming, it's just up to them on where the great East/West divide will be at.
 
Depends on how quickly 3rd Army can get over the Seine. In the East depends on how much more blood are the Russians willing to spend. So I'd give the German maybe up to August 45.

Seine is not far enough. Seen this gamed dozens of times & any attempts to delay in France results in unfavorable attrition ratios. That is what ever you save near the coast is chased down on the plains of France and Belgium. A successful 'withdrawal' strategy means running like hell for the old Siegfried line & devil take hind most. The best thing the Germans have going for them is the bulk of the material needed to rebuild the French railways is still parked in storage yards near Baltimore, New Jersey, Chicago, Philadelphia, or Liverpool.
 
Seine is not far enough. Seen this gamed dozens of times & any attempts to delay in France results in unfavorable attrition ratios. That is what ever you save near the coast is chased down on the plains of France and Belgium. A successful 'withdrawal' strategy means running like hell for the old Siegfried line & devil take hind most. The best thing the Germans have going for them is the bulk of the material needed to rebuild the French railways is still parked in storage yards near Baltimore, New Jersey, Chicago, Philadelphia, or Liverpool.

This makes sense. I could see the Germans attempting a stand at the Seine or the Somme, or even the Albert Canal (for lots of good reasons, even beyond the Hitler political stuff, to keep more radar stations intact, to preserve rocket sites, to hold Antwerp, more space in front of the Ruhr, etc.). They could just lose there instead.

The 6th army saved in the east would have a more lasting effect in the East, as perhaps the Germans could hold well in front of Budapest on the Tizza river through the Winter. But the Germans would be tempted to hold here too as in OTL, to keep the Soviets away from Hungarian oil, to keep the Soviets away from Budapest factories etc.

Likely no nukes as the Allies would have Berlin close to within in their grasp by August 1945 and conventional methods were working.

Some interesting effects for post war ramifications:
Perhaps the Allies take Vienna, Prague or Budapest before the Soviets.
Perhaps the Germans can put up a more significant jet effort in March-May 1945 if the airfields aren't being overrun.
Perhaps the new submarines actually make a few war patrols.
Unfortunately more people die in the concentration camps.
Probably most significantly a delayed Soviet entry into the Pacific war.
 
Would they expend a Nuke with the Russians still moving on Berlin ?

Why not, it would serve the purpose of a) trying to force the Nazi's to give up and b) Show the Russians the effects of a nuclear weapon up close and personal essentially sending the message that the US would nuke a European capital.

To be honest though, by mid 1945 there was very little in Berlin or the rest of Germany worth giving the instant sunshine treatment to. The NAZI's were done, it was just a case of putting the fork in.

Using nuclear weapons on Japan was a more rational choice of target, the military casualties from an invasion would have been horrendous and the civilian losses much, much worse though collateral damage would not have been an issue for the Allied planners.
 
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