German culture after a 1917 negotiated peace

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In 1917 German east africa was still fighting - it would be impossible to give it uop, so each peace deal would (99%) see German East Africa staying German.

The problem is that the war clearly demonstrated that is not possible defend them (plus they are a waste of money) so if is a peace due to exhaustation, the last colony can be given away freely as a 'gesture'

I also think the navy would NOT being discredited . rast mentioned Jutland - this would be styled as one of the "big wins" of the war - beating tghe brits on their own turf (tactically sinking so much more tonnage than losing IS a win - even if it did not change anything in the strategic picture)

Sure, but the fact that even after spend enourmous sum the 'so vaunted navy' basically permitted to the RN to blockade Germany it will be very sore point, expecially for the general population who greatly suffered due to shortages and frankly in time where budget will be cut the army will always use this point to divert fund to the service who really won the war.

Dismantling A-H - only if Germany comes to the conclusion that the Habsburgs can't hold out. Difficult with A-H "winning" the war (even gains vs Serbia). At least in the short range - it might disintegrate in the long run.

A-H had bought some years but even in case of victory i always see the Hasburg Empire as the CP equivalent of Italy, a nation with a difficult internal situation on the verge of a great change, who's suffered greatly from the war with much men and treasure wasted for some return that the general population will not find worth it. Plus the fact that the 'traditional enstablishment' will suffer from a general loss of credibility (a fact that will happen everywhere due to the nature of this war) and the various ethnic problem make the survival on the long term of the Empire very doubtufl, expecially with Germany having his own internal problem (both economic and political) and a general dissafection for military adventures for the moment.
Probably the situation will be similar to Turkey post war OTL, the various victorious power tried for a while to enforce their claim, but they were too tired and the cost was to high.
Ironically i always assumed that for A-H to survive in some manners, a fascist or communist revolution must happen; due to the fact that as this time only a strong ideology can trump or ride the nationalistic surge.


Regarding Italy, there is the possibility that the internal problem will the lesser than expected, after all in July the italian army is still in Austrian territory (no Caporetto) and the final settlement can be sold to the italian people as the Entente fault and ride the nationalistic rage. In this scenario with A-H keeping Serbia (and probably Montenegro) Italy will inglobe Albania in his sphere of influence with a italian king on the throne
 
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Now then, interesting premise. After the Burgfrieden era is over, the German society will continue to polarize. The old Junkers-led state apparatus will remain intact, but compromises with Noske-type moderates are increasingly necessary as left-and right-wing political extremism starts to rise. Paramilitary organizations and veteran services are bound to rise due the shared experiences in the trenches but disagreements on the future direction of society. Election system reforms in Prussia are a must, and will further degrade the position of old elite. They might start to seek for compromise candidates to lift their own support.

In my own TL a similar situation leads to a rise to a bit different but still recognizable JungDo, with Volksnationale Reichsvereinigung remaining independent political force and organizing closer collaboration with Deutsche Vaterlandspartei-type umbrella organizations the establishment sets up as populistic supporters of their continued rule. The left will meet this challenge by reorganizing, and some kind of radical wing is bound to split from Social Democrats sooner or later. What kind of political direction and agenda they'll have depends largely on Russia, though - Menshevik and SR example of constitutional Soviet power instead of Leninist terror tactics will create huge butterflies.

I doubt A-H will fall apart. They limped through the war almost to the end, and with the KuK Armee intact, the leaders of various nationalistic movements will be too busy distancing themselves from their war-era secrets contacts with their discredited pro-Entente powers to plan anything serious. Especially because becoming part of German Empire is a worse solution. Inclusion of Poland might well be acoompanied by trialism, with Poles of Galizia and Poland proper acting as a counterweight to Hungarian ambitions. Nationalistically Poles and Hungarians have always had warm relations, while Poles would look Vienna as a necessary protector against Berlin and Moscow. It's not going to be all happiness and sunshine, but the Dual Monarchy was resilient and disintegrated only because they utterly lost the war in OTL. They'd be messy and troubled, but would move along and start to invest on their huge economic potential as the new heartland of the new Mitteleuropa customs area.

As for other powers - it is too late to reverse the Ottoman course towards Pan-Islamism and Ottomanism - they will still see themselves as primarily Turkic empire, but new Arabs revolts are unlikely. Oil revenues will start flowing in the future, and the Empire will remain a poor and internally troubled German client to the foreseeable future.

Poor Italy, they fought a lot and lost. Instead of revanchism this might actually ultimately lead to moderate coalitions who cut military spending and accept the status quo, while left-and right wing forces continue to fight among themselves.

Britain will mostly focus on the issue of Ireland in the near future, and reorient their foreign policy to accept the fact that City is no longer the financial hub or the world and that Germany is the new continental hegemon.

Poor France. Her domestic politics will remain as a turbulent mess to foreseeable future, but I doubt that outright revolution would break out.

Russia is interesting. With Lenin still safely rotting away with his brain syphilis at Switzerland, the left-wing forces will find a common ground and the Constituent Assembly elections will take place. In OTL it took Lenin a lot to get the Bolsheviks strong enough even in the Petrograd Soviet - let alone to speak his comrades away from the idea of cooperation with Mensheviks, SRs and other leftists...Bolsheviks were losing their early wave of ethusiasm in the local soviet elections in late 1918 in OTL as well, and that was one of the main reasons why Lenin opted to stage a coup in the first place - electional defeat and a new left-wing coalition government loomed on the horizon.

Without Lenin to start his Red-Green internal struggle, the conservative elements in Russia are too weak and dispersed to oppose the main goals of the Mensheviks and SRs - land reform and new Soviet model of government. Both reforms are bound to cause wide unrest and problems in the former empire, combined with separatist movements in the fringes of the Empire. Finland will most likely regain her pre-Russification autonomy, and the Finns will generally be happy enough with that when they compare their lot to Estonians, who emerge from the Russian yoke only to find themselves bossed around with the same old Baltic Germans who are now backed up their Prussian cousins.

All in all, troubled and turbulent 1920s lay ahead. Economically and politically it is pivotally important for Germany to invest heavily on her troubled former allies to keep them from falling apart, and to create new markets to her products.
 
Ironically i always assumed that for A-H to survive in some manners, a fascist or communist revolution must happen; due to the fact that as this time only a strong ideology can trump or ride the nationalistic surge.

Or a Mexican standoff between Austromarxist and increasingly multinational Social Democrats, Christlichsoziale Partei and similar chauvinist groups and the kaisertreu old elite and their supporters?
 
Or a Mexican standoff between Austromarxist and increasingly multinational Social Democrats, Christlichsoziale Partei and similar chauvinist groups and the kaisertreu old elite and their supporters?

Can be...but this king of standoff last long and rarely end well expecially in chaotic time like this.
In all honestly in light of the OP the best outcome for A-H is to end like the CSA but even in this case for obtain this result violence (and lot of) will happen.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Would the modern state of Isreal ever be created?

Doubt it. Peace deal gives Ottomans their original borders. They will allow in some additional Jews over the years, but they are very unlikely to want an autonomous Jewish region. Baring a revolt by Palestinians where Jews are seen as a counter weight and punishment, I have trouble coming up with a scenario.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Great question. Got me.

I have a question of my own. Would the ottomans survive? And how would they survive? Ie brutally putting down any handball revolts?

I would go yes, but like the A-H, there are trends that care tear it apart. Germany has an interest in Ottomans surviving. We will likely see higher investments in the Ottoman empire. Ottomans likely renounce their debts and other concessions to France, Russia, UK, and Italy. Russia is still a real danger, helps to have a enemy of another religion threaten your state, at least for national unity.

But then we have issues. Roughly 1/4 Arab and 1/4 Turkish. At least 3 important factions with different views of how the empire is to unfold. Ottomans lost 20% of population OTL, so call it 16% ITTL. UK intentionally created desert Arab issues. All of this is manageable, but a serious mistake could blow up the empire. But this could likely have been said for the previous 100 years. And we likely have a round two coming at some point. If Russia gets here act together and industrializes, then she is again a force to be feared. France can partially recover. Italy has an axe to grind. Given the right spark, the flames of war can occur again.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Germany getting money for colonies - = the empire will be able to repay (at least) part of the internal debt = money for the population to spend for consumption... = early economic recovery - UK/France will not get money from Germany, but will have to pay to the US. - Could this lwead to a 1920 "bases for debt reduction" agreement between UK/France and the US. The Brit and French population might see this as US Betrayal/greed/... and relations to the US might become tense (public opinion)
While the british populaton might be thinking Germany has fought for their gains, America has just sat back and stole our Empire (parts) and thus look for allying to Germany, its more difficult for the proud french, but even they might "respect" that Germany won on the battlefield (sort of) while the treacherous US just stole their share.

Eventually this might lead to an even deeper US isolationism...

Only secured debt ITTL. USA is paid 100%, within a few years of the war ending. What happens here is the UK has traded all assets owned by citizens of the British Empire in the USA for war supplies.
 
Post war was not easy OTL in Germany - this time the domestic consumption would be higher = better growth. On the other hand the Brits (and Ferench) would NOT get money from Germany so I assume they would face a lower economic growth as they HAVE to pay back their loans - even OTL I believe they paid back until AFTER 1945. so even if they have a lower taotal loan volume money is still flowing out of the economy while Germany mostly keeps the money within its economy (even has an influx of money). Even as UK does not have unsecured loans TTL it has to pay money for the German colonies (that why I assume German East Africa stays german - because UK simply can't afford to pay for it)

The French and british situation is not as bad as Germanys OTL, but it should be comparably Worse than their OTL situation.

(Not counting the less damage done by a shorter war)
 
Would the modern state of Isreal ever be created?

Probably more likely but ona different time frame.

For one, without a devestated Germany turning to Nazism I don't see how you have a holocaust ... maybe the occassional pogrom as has been typical in Europe ... but with an additional 6, 000, 000 jews in europe even small immigration could in time help forge a strong jewish nation within the ottoman fabric.

Antisemitism is still rampant in europe, so without the holocaust, you would still have violence and the occassional dreyfus affair encouraging jews to leave russia and elsewhere to support the jewish nation in the levant

The ottoman empire was a creaking edifice, and would only survive if german won ... but survive for how long? Once it collapsed couldn't israel emerge possibly even with an arab ally or two (or kurds or armenians) with a shared interest in lifting the ottoman yoke and not inherent arab-jewizh violence since the immigration would have been conducted under the ruling ottomans andd would have had a longer horizon to become the new normal.
 
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