German completely adopts the defensive September 1942

off topic a bit, but how would you rate the consequences of this happening on August 29th, and Stalingrad basically falling in the following days/weeks?

stalingrad-jpg.229350
A potentially crippling blow to the USSR's ability to make war if Soviet counterattacks fail.
 
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nbcman

Donor
No I know, but my point was you and crueldwarf aren't actually disagreeing with each other. You are right in that the Germans stole a bunch of stuff (for various reasons but with the same end result that was also desired by them anyway), and Crueldwarf is right that the stuff they stole didn't significantly bolster the German economy (so not being there to steal it won't have that much of a direct negative affect on it either, although as I said they still need to eat and stay warm were ever they end up).

More importantly you are both right in ways that are not mutually exclusive with the other being right.
Sorry, both stances are not right. If the Germans didn't plunder food and other supplies from the occupied areas of the Soviet Union, the Germans would have to ship and supply their troops from the rest of their controlled countries. The plunder in the East freed up the German economy for domestic usage and to avoid having to produce and ship the materials to the East when they had severe issues with keeping supplies to their forces in the Soviet Union without dealing with shipping a significant amount of food and other materials.
 
Sorry, both stances are not right. If the Germans didn't plunder food and other supplies from the occupied areas of the Soviet Union, the Germans would have to ship and supply their troops from the rest of their controlled countries. The plunder in the East freed up the German economy for domestic usage and to avoid having to produce and ship the materials to the East when they had severe issues with keeping supplies to their forces in the Soviet Union without dealing with shipping a significant amount of food and other materials.
Yes I made that point in my posts as well (including the one you just quoted), but the claim was about Soviet resources being plundered and shipped back to Germany
 

nbcman

Donor
Yes I made that point in my posts as well (including the one you just quoted), but the claim was about Soviet resources being plundered and shipped back to Germany
Except that's not correct. User Garrison never made a claim that Soviet resources were being shipped back to Germany. The statement was (bolding added)
I have to point out the problems here of substantial disruptions to production while factories retool to produce a different model of aircraft, not to mention lowered productivity as factories have to learn how to efficiently build a new design.


And surrender access to food and vital raw materials from the Ukraine et al. This would be a crippling blow for Germany.
The only user that made a statement about the 'spoils of war' or materials getting shipped back to Germany was you in post #32.
 
Strategically, doomed. They had to make a push for the Caucuses. To do less would be admitting defeat. There was a slim chance for Fall Blau to succeed—slim, but if Germany was to win the war, it was a necessary throw of the dice.
Yeah, in the view point of June 42 it was a fair shot, unfortunately by late September the offensives everywhere, at the Grain Elevator, along the Terek at the Cement factory at Novorossiysk were pretty much stopped, I was wondering what the options were at this point, continuing the offensive was futile, and I can't see any German leadership just pulling back to the 1942 start line, if they can hold on to territory like the Kuban, there is the hope that the Soviets may be resource and population constrained in what they can do on the offensive and with some defensive successes, the Germans could negotiate a compromise peace with the Soviets.
 
where would they be if they kept AGS together, no move on the Caucasus?
To do that the Germans need to be more successful in the opening of Fall Blau.

The original idea was to encircle and destroy the Soviet formations right away and then take the west bank of the Volga on the march, at which point mobile forces could race south to secure the oil fields. The issue is that rather than standing still and getting encircled as was often the case for the Red Army the previous year, the Red Army instead routed on contact and inadvertently escaped encirclement. After that it became necessary to split up army group south, with Army Group A chasing after the forces that escaped to the south and Army Group B chasing after the forces that escaped to the east.

off topic a bit, but how would you rate the consequences of this happening on August 29th, and Stalingrad basically falling in the following days/weeks?

stalingrad-jpg.229350
TIK covers this in one of his Stalingrad videos. The TLDW is that it's not possible given the extent to which the Germans were pressed from the north.
 
TIK covers this in one of his Stalingrad videos. The TLDW is that it's not possible given the extent to which the Germans were pressed from the north.
Well, if you are going to use TIK (Whose reliability is in question), he also notes that German reinforcements to Army Group B never were enough to make up for combat losses, despite the Ostheer's overall reinforcements surpassing losses from July to November 1942. By November, Stalingrad had essentially been taken, so a few thousand reinforcements could have tipped the balance. By November, Army Group B was operating with an approximate 56,000 man deficit—receiving the lowest number of reinforcements of all the army groups, despite taking the highest casualties out of all the Army Groups in that time frame. If proper attention had been given to replenishing the loses of Army Group B with fresh reinforcements, which Germany did have available, Stalingrad may well have been taken faster, and the disaster averted. Of course, it is still debated why Army Group B was given the lowest number of reinforcements despite taking the highest casualties from July to November, whether the reason was logistics, overprioritization of Army Group Center (Moscow), or just plain incompetent staff work. What could be done to improve the situation of Army Group B, depends on what caused it to receive the lowest number of reinforcements despite taking the highest losses. It does seem that Franz Halder was delusional about the poor state of affairs at Stalingrad, and that this may have been one of the reasons he was sacked.
 
Except that's not correct. User Garrison never made a claim that Soviet resources were being shipped back to Germany. The statement was (bolding added)

The only user that made a statement about the 'spoils of war' or materials getting shipped back to Germany was you in post #32.
Ah OK I took

And surrender access to food and vital raw materials from the Ukraine et al. This would be a crippling blow for Germany

to mean the home market/front
 
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OP, remember Hitler is not just fighting any regular war, with regular objectives about territorial expansion. I feel like if we had more clarity on this point across the board a lot of the Axis WW2 threads would be greatly simplified, since there is a lot of confusion around the terminology of "winning" WW2 and what that means for the Third Reich tbh. Hitler openly mocked people who believed going back to the borders of 1914 was enough. In his embattled mind the war is an apocalyptic conflict between Germany and "world Jewry" whose outcome will be the annihilation of one side or the other. Moreover, the final struggle only becomes possible if Germany can become a peer competitor to the United States, for which it needs a contiguous colonial empire reaching to the Urals. There is no point to Germany playing on the defence, since as other users have said defence will never achieve the kind of total victory Hitler wants. When given the option, the Germans will always choose taking the initiative in an incredibly high-risk, high-reward kind of way, since that is the only way they stand a remote chance to overcome the overwhelming odds they stupidly placed themselves against. They only went on the defence IOTL when they had absolutely no other option open to them.
 
Well, if you are going to use TIK (Whose reliability is in question),
To my knowledge his reliability issues are mostly down to his libertarian hyper partisanship. When it comes to simply positioning units on maps and noting what they're doing and when (which is what this question concerns) he's pretty reliable and even willing to admit when he has made a mistake.

he also notes that German reinforcements to Army Group B never were enough to make up for combat losses, despite the Ostheer's overall reinforcements surpassing losses from July to November 1942. By November, Stalingrad had essentially been taken, so a few thousand reinforcements could have tipped the balance. By November, Army Group B was operating with an approximate 56,000 man deficit—receiving the lowest number of reinforcements of all the army groups, despite taking the highest casualties out of all the Army Groups in that time frame. If proper attention had been given to replenishing the loses of Army Group B with fresh reinforcements, which Germany did have available, Stalingrad may well have been taken faster, and the disaster averted. Of course, it is still debated why Army Group B was given the lowest number of reinforcements despite taking the highest casualties from July to November, whether the reason was logistics, overprioritization of Army Group Center (Moscow), or just plain incompetent staff work. What could be done to improve the situation of Army Group B, depends on what caused it to receive the lowest number of reinforcements despite taking the highest losses. It does seem that Franz Halder was delusional about the poor state of affairs at Stalingrad, and that this may have been one of the reasons he was sacked.
Yes, that is all true, however the post I was replying to concerned the facts on the ground in late August 1942. It is possible that in another timeline where Army Group B has been adequately reinforced it could have made that pincer movement, but that would require an earlier PoD.
 
They just turned it into a war of attrition
that was what Barbarossa was intended to prevent because the German high command knew they could not win a war of attrition
 
The Soviets took 20 million deaths during the war, plus another 5-10 million during the Holodmor. Depending on whose numbers you want to take that is 20-30% of the entire population, That the society didn't simply fracture into a failed state.

There is a case to be made that the Soviets never recovered from the double-tap of Man-made famine and the most savage war since the introduction of gunpower onto the European Peninsula.
If we talk about population loses recovery being weak then one can argue that it is because the USSR became developed. Urbanization and family planing did a number on population growth. Had the Soviet Union remained un-developed it would have had demographics similar to a third world country.
 
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