German Collapse after a CP victory in WWI

As inspired by the slew of other WWI threads, I pose this to you, what is the likelihood of a victorious Imperial Germany collapsing into turmoil in the years following a victory in the great war?

Although many people view Germany as being the premier power in Europe in the years following a victory in the war, there are a good number of factors pointing toward instability in Germany rather than sustained hegemony. Rather than an extended period of peace for the German people, victory would almost ensure an extended period of military interventions by Germany. There of course would be gains to consolidate in Eastern Europe, colonial posessions that would have expanded and aquired from the entente to be put under control, and then the Germans would most likely have had to prop up the failing Austrian hapsburgs, as well as almost inevitable involvement in the Russian Civil war which proved to be a total mess for the allied powers OTL. Now there is also the global economic downturn that would come later, although it is hardly a certainty, let us say for arguments sake that such an event still happens. Just as in every other modern nation in the world, Germany would suffer widespread unemployment and poverty. Although there wouldn't be reparations to be made by the German government, it doesn't change the fact that a lot of German people are going to be hungry and homeless. Then there is the leadership of Wilhelm which was questionable to say the least. Granted he was hardly the worst of the worlds leaders, but he was also not exactly the kind of leader you want when suffering from a national crisis.

With all of these factors is it plausible that Germany would suffer a major meltdown in the postwar years even after winning the Great war? Keep in mind that after giving away so many young men to the meat grinder of war for a "victory" they are going to continue to be expected to do the same in Eastern Europe, Russia, Austria Hungary, and various colonial posessions around the world for years to come. These same german people will be suffering under the weight of a massive economic depression. Could a major political revolution or civil war erupt in Germany?

On a related note what do you folks think of the likelihood of France going red after being defeated in WWI? Also what is the likelihood of much of the rest of Europe going commie in the couple decades following a CP victory.

Keep in mind that any POD can be considered for this scenario, however I think it's mostly a given that the US does not in fact get involved in the war, although if you can figure out how to get a decisive CP victory after the US gets involved that would be interesting.
 
You raise some very good points. With late German victory TLs (and still more with with victory in 1919 scenarios) there is the problem of transition from the Third Military Council to Kaiser plus Reichstag rule. As Ludendorff was flaky this by itself could present all sorts of possible problems. Add to that the mercurial twists and turns Wilhelm II was capable of plus the Reichstag's Socialist majority and a suffering populace I could see a very unstable postwar Germany.
 
Well with the Military Council in power and unstable populace you might see them go socialist and set up a Bolshevik government. If this happens then France may fall in line as well. Britain wont though.
 
Certainly I think late-victory Germany would be a stagnant place dominated by its military and with a lot of places to get entangled. The end of the state as it was are hardly impossible, in the long term, if we assume major economic trouble. But the idea of the Austro-Hungarian Empire turning into some sort of Vietnam is bogus. Who's going to be fighting?
 
I wouldn't overstress the power of III. OHL; they had no direct way to influence politics inside the empire. With demobilisation, they might become something like OTL's ZEGROST (Zentrale Grenzschutz Ost) - and finally be abolished at all.
The deciding point in all late CP victory scenarios is that the old order in Germany no longer held any attraction to or respect from the people. Whether the switch is going to be merely democratic or communist is open to debate, but I think in a victory scenario it's more likely to be plainly democratic. The 1918 German army was no instrument to fight a general strike, they would immediately have solidarised with the strikers.
All this, would, however, not mean that Germany would be unable to control large areas occupied. Like IOTL, Freikorps could be formed for this task from those soldiers who still haven't had enough of war.
 
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