German attack on the USSR in 1940

LOTLOF, credibility was a vital issue for Great Britain and France, another sellout after Munich followed by Hitler betraying Munich would have meant the end of all credibility to any commitments from London or Paris.

Neither was there anyone who expected France to fall so quickly so that won't be a concern in Paris.
 

Tellus

Banned
Another possibility for a 1940 campaign is the fact that days before the Armistice was signed in France, Hitler wanted his generals to draw up plans and prepare to execute them within days to move the whole army to Poland in order to be able to attack the Soviet Union by July 30th at the latest, which was 40 days later.

The generals thought it was suicide because they would have too little time before winter and the equipment used in France required repairs, etc. They lied to Hitler outright on feasibility to convince him to push it back to 41.

If they had gone for it, they would have faced considerably less prepared Soviets tho, and this would undoubtedly remove the losses of the BoB as well as I cant see Germany going after both at the same time.
 
That would still leave two potential threat in the west. France and Britain will still be rearming like crazy and jump on Germany when the tide of the war would have turned against them in URSS.

Hitler had no problem to throw everything against the West in 1940 in OTL when Stalin was a threath in the east.
 
Hitler didn't consider Stalin a threat in 1940. He had not only paid off Stalin quite nicely in various bits of territory but had established what would have appeared, and certainly did to Stalin, a mutually beneficial trading relationship.

It was only Hitler's decision which made war inevitable.
 
Hitler had no problem to throw everything against the West in 1940 in OTL when Stalin was a threath in the east.

The Molotov-Rippentrop Pact secured the east for Hitler. Besides, he knew the Red Army was not strong enough to INVADE Germany.

None the less, the Soviet threat helped shape German war plans in the west. The original plan was a rehash of the WWI Schlieffen Plan, it called for an attack through Belgium which was expected to cost Germany a half million casualties. If it worked, Germany would achieve stalemate on the Somme River and have to wait until 1942 for it's forces to be rebuilt and finally beat France.

Every German general knew they would probably lose the war, one of the reasons being they can't trust the Soviets wont stab them in the back at some point. Eventually Mainstein's plan to go through the Ardennes was approved out of desperation. The majority of German generals were opposed to it because it was too risky. Hitler overruled them because if he didn't take the gamble the war would be lost anyways.

That was the reality in 1940. It's hard to overstate how highly vaunted the French defenses were. The Soviets were widely seen as a formidable power. The myth of the invincible German army didn't exist. People thought the Blitzkrieg was a one trick pony that only worked in Poland. Even the Germans weren't that sure about it themselves.
 
You are joking right? You really think the brits and the french would sit without preparing anything when Germany is going wild in the east?

They wont`t "re-arm like crazy" and "jump at Germany when the tides of war turn in the east". They would prepare for a possible German offensive, but if they didn`t declare war over Poland (as stated by the OP) and Germany is bogged down in the East, then there is no point in France and Britain overmilitarising themselves and going on the offensive.
 
They wont`t "re-arm like crazy" and "jump at Germany when the tides of war turn in the east". They would prepare for a possible German offensive, but if they didn`t declare war over Poland (as stated by the OP) and Germany is bogged down in the East, then there is no point in France and Britain overmilitarising themselves and going on the offensive.

machine3589

If the POD is just that the western powers don't dow when Poland is attacked they are already rearming like crazy. They were a bit behind Germany because they started a bit later and paid some attention to economics but huge build-ups are already in place.

Furthermore, even if the west doesn't dow Germany it's still far more likely that Hitler will attack France before Russia. He wants A-L back, he wants vengeance for 1918 and most of all even Adolph won't ignore the massive build-up in the west while ploughing into Russia.

Steve
 
Much worse.

None of those lovely French trucks so an even worse logistical nightmare. Less tanks and weaker than the models available in 1941 (over 500 are the puny Panzer 1's). A prepared Russian army which can focus all it's attention on the northern area of it's border and of course Anglo-French armies getting stronger than you every moment, just waiting until they're completely superior (mid-1941) on your western front and/or until one side gets the upper hand. When either one of those comes it's game over, probably by 1943 at the latest.
 
Much worse.

None of those lovely French trucks so an even worse logistical nightmare. Less tanks and weaker than the models available in 1941 (over 500 are the puny Panzer 1's). A prepared Russian army which can focus all it's attention on the northern area of it's border and of course Anglo-French armies getting stronger than you every moment, just waiting until they're completely superior (mid-1941) on your western front and/or until one side gets the upper hand. When either one of those comes it's game over, probably by 1943 at the latest.

But the Soviets will have some 15 000 aircraft and some 5000 tanks less. (The number produced from Mai 40 to June 41)And no T-34 and only very few KW - so in tanks the USSR will be far worse at it than Germany. And hundreds of thousands of soliders less and tens of thousands of guns and trucks less.


And to end the whole GB/France will jump at Germany thing - after the fall of Poland Hitler made a treaty with GB/France as with Stalin in OTL. So if Stalin didnt attack Hitler in 1940 in OTL, France/GB sure as hell will not attack Hitler in 1940.
 
Furthermore, even if the west doesn't dow Germany it's still far more likely that Hitler will attack France before Russia. He wants A-L back, he wants vengeance for 1918 and most of all even Adolph won't ignore the massive build-up in the west while ploughing into Russia.

This then invaildates the entire point of the thread.
 
machine3589

Furthermore, even if the west doesn't dow Germany it's still far more likely that Hitler will attack France before Russia. He wants A-L back, he wants vengeance for 1918

Steve

While I agree that the scenario as a whole is highly unlikely I have to disagree with this statement. Hitlers first priorities were always creating a "pure Arian" society, destroying communism and conquering Lebensraum in the East. He had no problem to keep peace in the West for the time being even if this meant he had to give up some of the territories lost at Versailles. In his opinion the new lands in the east are way more important. Of course he redraw the borders in the west when he had the chance but he was focused on the east.
 
But the Soviets will have some 15 000 aircraft and some 5000 tanks less. (The number produced from Mai 40 to June 41)And no T-34 and only very few KW - so in tanks the USSR will be far worse at it than Germany. And hundreds of thousands of soliders less and tens of thousands of guns and trucks less.

Meanwhile the Germans will have far less medium tanks and no heavies. I don't have specific figures on T-34's or KV-1's but a couple hundred of each at least. As I said the vast majority of German tanks are still light at this point and not really a match to the T-28. Just because there are less troops doesn't mean that there are going to be less logistical problems. Also the fact that the Soviets can divert a large amount of strength from their relatively safe southern border doesn't bode well for those weaker German forces.

And to end the whole GB/France will jump at Germany thing - after the fall of Poland Hitler made a treaty with GB/France as with Stalin in OTL. So if Stalin didnt attack Hitler in 1940 in OTL, France/GB sure as hell will not attack Hitler in 1940.

So what does this treaty entail exactly, what do the UK and France get out of it? And they don't need to attack in 1940, although I'm sure this treaty wouldn't stop them if the opportunity arose, like Stalin with the M-R pact, they'll be preparing to strike when the moment is perfect and Germany's attention largely turned east prevents lots of excellent opportunities.
 
First, the whole premise of the thread is spilling handwavium - the British and French simply weren't going to give Hitler a free hand anywhere in Europe after he invaded the rump Czechoslovakia. So the OP should explain just why they didn't declare war on Germany after the invasion of Poland.

2nd, if Stalin doesn't expect Hitler to be bogged down in a war in Western Europe then he's unlikely to agree to a grand bargain with Germany in general or a partition of Poland in particular, meaning that the Red Army will enter the country soon after the Wehrmacht (and sooner than it did in OTL), with or without Polish consent, and it will not be a friendly operation in support of German expansionism. When the 2 armies meet the result will be either war or the establishment of a line of control (which will be different from that agreed by Molotov and Ribbentrop in OTL or its September 28 alteration). Wherever Hitler will launch the invasion of the USSR from, it will not be the Molotov-Ribbentrop line and it will certainly not be the Treaty of Riga line.

3rd, if the Germans and Soviets don't come to blows in Poland, the Soviets will attempt to obtain basing rights in Finland and the Baltic States, as in OTL. Unlike in OTL they will not have German consent in this, which could lead to a scenario in which the Germans promise to support these states in resisting the Soviet ultimatums, and if they deliver you will have your war in the late autumn of 1939. I consider this the probable scenario when the Soviets make their demands on Lithuania, which is right next to East Prussia.

4th, without the fall of France and the June 26 Soviet ultimatum expect Romania to do all it can to maintain neutrality. Without the Winter War expect the same of Finland.
 
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