At what point are we envisioning a war? Without WW1, German capital ship production has to reach a plateau as they cannot continue to increase their fleet. But by this time they will be into replacing the older dreadnoughts with new fast battleships, so the effect may not be so obvious.
Are we looking at a battleship on battleship war, in which case until the HSF really gets High Seas capability, its not going to be a very wide-ranging war. IMHO, tho the US won't see a European-based German fleet as a threat.
Therefore, we are looking to a time period when the HSF is replacing its middle-aged dreadnoughts with longer-ranged fast battleships, and is also experimenting with aircraft carriers before the USA really begins to view them as a threat.
German global politics of course will play a part, as if German Empire gains and holds a pre-eminent position in the Ottoman Empire and comes to be a primary beneficiary of the oil wealth there, this is going to have a strategic impact on US thinking.
Allies also matter - will Germany look to Japan once the Anglo-Japanese accord breaks down? Thus the USA will begin to feel it has large and high-range fleets on both sides of its land mass.
Thus we could indeed see by the late 1930s a US feeling that the German-Japanese alliance is a threat, with Germany's longer-range fast battleships now the norm, only a very few of the WW1-era ships not having been replaced, and the experimental carriers of the early 1920s now replaced by purpose-built armoured deck fleet carrriers
Best Regards
Grey Wolf