German AHC: Have the Social Democrats win a majority in the 2009 German federal election

With a POD starting on January 1, 2008, your challenge is to give the Social Democrats a majority of seats in the Bundestag in the 2009 German federal elections. Bonus if you get the most leftist Chancellor there.
 

Anchises

Banned
Hard. Really hard.

The SPD is constantly decaying since they enacted the Agenda 2010.

You need a series of real CDU/CSU blunders to manage that.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
Hard. Really hard.

The SPD is constantly decaying since they enacted the Agenda 2010.

You need a series of real CDU/CSU blunders to manage that.

Massive blunders. However, with a strong partner it might work without the SPD being ahead. The Green party was quite strong back then, together they might have enough
for a small majority.
 
Hard. Really hard.

The SPD is constantly decaying since they enacted the Agenda 2010.

So much for being the pro-worker party :teary:

Massive blunders. However, with a strong partner it might work without the SPD being ahead. The Green party was quite strong back then, together they might have enough
for a small majority.

Was there a way to prevent Agenda 2010 from being passed by the SPD/Greens with a 2008 POD?

And what non-ASB CDU/CSU blunders can you think of to pull this off*?



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*Like the ethics scandals that plagued the American Republican Party during Watergate in 1974, Iran-Contra in 1986, and the midterm elections in 2006?
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
Was there a way to prevent Agenda 2010 from being passed by the SPD/Greens with a 2008 POD?

And what non-ASB CDU/CSU blunders can you think of to pull this off*?



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*Like the ethics scandals that plagued the American Republican Party during Watergate in 1974, Iran-Contra in 1986, and the midterm elections in 2006?

Agenda 2010 was on the way by 2003, so no. Maybe something related to the donations scandal from 1999/2000. But the damage for the SPD was basically done by then, so even if the CDU messes up things big time, the voters won't necessarily flock back to the SPD. You probably need the Linke collapsing - maybe some Stasi related scandal?
 
Agenda 2010 was on the way by 2003, so no. Maybe something related to the donations scandal from 1999/2000. But the damage for the SPD was basically done by then, so even if the CDU messes up things big time, the voters won't necessarily flock back to the SPD. You probably need the Linke collapsing - maybe some Stasi related scandal?

What "Linke"? And is it okay if you provide a scenario on that?


Merkel dies, then the CDU/CSU clash over leadership ending in chaos.

Interesting, but do you have a POD without her dying?
 
What "Linke"? And is it okay if you provide a scenario on that?
Die Linke - The Left

Basically the shattered remains of the PDS, the former government of East Germany. They're hard left partisans who basically ate the left-wing of the SPD. If they're around taking 5-10% of the vote, the SPD's route to power becomes much more difficult, as those voters would back either the SPD or Greens if Die Linke were to collapse.
 
Die Linke - The Left

Basically the shattered remains of the PDS, the former government of East Germany. They're hard left partisans who basically ate the left-wing of the SPD. If they're around taking 5-10% of the vote, the SPD's route to power becomes much more difficult, as those voters would back either the SPD or Greens if Die Linke were to collapse.

Oh I see I see. I'll research about some Stasi scandals as well.
 
Die Linke - The Left

Basically the shattered remains of the PDS, the former government of East Germany. They're hard left partisans who basically ate the left-wing of the SPD. If they're around taking 5-10% of the vote, the SPD's route to power becomes much more difficult, as those voters would back either the SPD or Greens if Die Linke were to collapse.
Wasn't Gerhard winning many former Die Linke voters in 2002 key to his re-election victory?
 
Die Linke - The Left

Basically the shattered remains of the PDS, the former government of East Germany. They're hard left partisans who basically ate the left-wing of the SPD. If they're around taking 5-10% of the vote, the SPD's route to power becomes much more difficult, as those voters would back either the SPD or Greens if Die Linke were to collapse.
You forgot the West German hardcore lefts.
 
An ASB scenario, but interesting enough:
If the Tsunami in Japan and the catastrophe in Fukushima happened i 2008, probably right after the FDP had launched a paper on nuclear perpetuation to the applause of many CDU/CSU members, then the Greens may have gotten close to 20 per cent, and the FDP not reached their 2009 peak.

A leftist Social Democrat in 2009 is difficult. Steinmeier ran as an ultra-moderate because the SPD came out of a Great Coalition and the financial crisis was in full swing. Their discussed alternative, steinbrueck, was also ultra-moderate.
 
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