Gerald Ford's Legacy if he wins in 1976?
- Thread starter dw93
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Yeah, I don't see how switching Ford and Carter in '76 leads to that happening.
And please, don't say "butterflies."
my guess is we see Reagan/Rumsfeld running on a 1994-style "contract on america" platform, or less likely tea party. I suspect getting goldwater numbers with RONALD REAGAN might kill the movement cons and when the democrats falter in 1996/2000/2004 we'll get either pseudo-libertarianish/moderate/'populist'* or some combo of all three. Bill Weld meets Donald Trump with a dash of the Pauls(libertarian or at least hands off on at least socially) or an idea of this new fusioning.
* think like orban, italy's 5 star movement, campaign trump(when he wasn't sucking up to consie types)
* think like orban, italy's 5 star movement, campaign trump(when he wasn't sucking up to consie types)
Because Reagan was always seen as the "heir apparent," for lack of a better term. Ford, unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat in his second term, would be defined by his failings, and Reagan would be the one to capitalize on that. He had institutional support from the right-wing of the party's officials and donors, had the overwhelming support of Republican activists and ideologues, and was the most famous Republican in America (with the exception of former Presidents, of course). While Dole or Bush might have a good showing, it would be Reagan's to lose in 1980.
Ford had a bad second term, so the conservatives would get another chance to try and in this case fail.
My guess is the GOP platform launches to the right of OTL 1980, proposing OTL gingrich-style '94 reps was me being ah conservative. I could EASILY see them proposing early 2010s Tea Party or POTUS Trump -- not campaign trump since governing as free trade/keeping immigration open but governing to the right of tea party types.
And Reagan would know enough to know that a Democrat was likely to win in 1980 with an elected Ford term from 1976.
Then why would Dole run?
Plus, Reagan knew that 1980 was his last shot - by '84, he would probably be too old for the party to tolerate, and in the off-chance another Republican won the nomination and beat Carter, he'd definitely be too old by '88.
Someone has to run, and with a full Ford term, Dole is the heir apparent.
Again, Dole could stand a decent chance of winning, but there is no way Reagan sits out 1980.
I think Reagan might run again, but he won't beat Dole for the nomination in this alternate 1980.
imo reagan EASILY gets the nominaiton but loses massively in the electoral college plus extreme negative effect on congressional GOP numbers
POTUS Askew/Carey/whoever would be able to get medicare for all, a basic income and more through congress easily. Think new deal 2.0.
Chile, the UK would be ttl's neoliberal places and the UK is iffy given likely differing times for elections.
POTUS Askew/Carey/whoever would be able to get medicare for all, a basic income and more through congress easily. Think new deal 2.0.
Chile, the UK would be ttl's neoliberal places and the UK is iffy given likely differing times for elections.
Reagan 1980 was not a sure thing in the GOP primaries in OTL. He might be Dole's running mate, but he's not going to be the nominee,
I don't see how you're so sure just because Dole was Ford's veep. Dan Quayle was Bush's veep, and look how far that got him when he faced off against a higher-profile, more conservative Governor from a populous state.
And there is no way in hell Reagan is Dole's nominee, that's just absurd.
Quayle was a former VP in 1996 who had served under a president defeated for reelection. His political capital was not any better than Mondale's.
And Dole is a VP who served under an extremely unpopular Republican President facing a recession and a hostage crisis.
And Reagan will factor that into his calculus, likely deciding not to run.
Reagan damn near beat Ford for the nomination in 1976. He could easily beat a weak candidate like Dole who would be Vice President in an unpopular administration. I could see Dole being the Republican's answer to Mondale in 1984 TTL though.