Gerald Ford elected in 1980

[dw93]

April 18th: A Bombing in Beriut

On April 18th, 1983 the U.S. embassy in Beirut was bombed, killing 63 people, 17 or which were Americans. In August of the previous year, the United States sent 250 Marines into Beirut Lebanon as part of a Multinational Force that also consisted of the French and the Italians, to support, aid, and train the Lebanese armed forces to restore the sovereignty of the Lebanese Government in Beirut and its constituent areas. It was also there to guarantee and insure the safety and security of the mass civilian population.

That day, President Ford gave a statement. In it, he said that "These cowardly and criminal acts will not stop us from achieving our goals of achieving peace. Betty and I offer our condolences to the families of those who were lost in this tragic attack."

The President of Lebanon cabled the President telling him that his sympathies were with the families of the U.S. victims. At the same time, the Lebanese were asking the three countries of the Multinational Force to increase the size of its peace keeping force. The President, who was reluctant to send troops there in the first place, was reluctant to send more troops in there now. Being President when the Fall of Saigon happened in 1975, Ford didn't want troops bogged down in another quagmire of a war. At the same time, he didn't want to completely withdraw troops either believing that doing so would be a sign of weakness.

The next day, congress voted to approve an increase in economic and military aid for Lebanon. However, both house attached amendments that said the President could only expand the U.S. military role by getting congressional approval first.

Ford at this point out ruled the possibility of expanding our role there, instead seeking to try and solve the Problem diplomatically.

 

[dw93]

Some News on the Presidential Race:

On April 30th, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who was a serious Primary challenge against President Carter in 1980, declared himself a candidate for the 1984 Democratic nomination calling for Peace abroad and a return to prosperity at home, and also calling for Democrats to return to being the party of Franklin Roosevelt and John and Robert Kennedy.

The following day, former President Carter officially launched an exploratory committee for another shot at a second term. That same day, Former Vice President Mondale, in an interview on CBS was asked about a possible run for the Presidency. He said his decision to run is based on what President Carter does. "If President Carter decides to enter the race, he has my support. If not, I will consider a Presidential run of my own."

On the Republican side, Senator Bob Dole announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the United State on May 3rd, saying in his announcement that "American is more respected today than it was four years ago and our country is finally prospering. We need to continue down this path, and with Bob Dole as President, America will continue to be respected and will only become more prosperous."

In an interview on NBC, Vice President Reagan was asked if he was going to run for President in 1984. The Vice President, sitting next to his wife Nancy, said that "Well, after thinking it over, I have concluded that my time has passed. There are plenty of great and qualified people in our party who would make great Presidents. I am proud of all of the accomplishments of the Ford/Reagan administration, and I think I can speak for Nancy when I say we're both looking forward to returning to California."

 

[bookmark95]

Dole 84!

 

[dw93]

May 17th: Israel leaves Lebanon and Ford begins withdrawing U.S. troops:

On May 17th, Israel, Lebanon, and the United States sign an agreement for Israel to withdraw troops from Lebanon.

Shortly after the agreement was signed, Ford issued a statement that said that "now that an agreement has been reached for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, I am now going to begin a gradual withdrawal of all U.S. Marines from Lebanon, stating that it was the Israeli invasion that caused us to go into Lebanon in the first place and now that they've withdrawn, there is no need for a further presence there by the United States." All U.S. Marines were to be out by early August.

 

[dw93]

June: Two more candidates get in, and the first of the polls are out

June 1st: Senator and Former astronaut John Glenn of Ohio announced that he was running for President.

June 10th: Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada, enters the race for the Republican nomination. In his speech, he praised President Ford and said he will be remembered well by history and praised his policies, but also said that that the time for a more conservative approach to governing is now, and that he, better than any candidate, will sign more tax cuts, do away with what he called useless regulations, and drastically shrink the size of the Federal Government.

The first set of polls were out on June 30th. Polling among Democratic voters showed Senator Kennedy and former President Carter, who was still exploring a run, were tied in the polls with 20% each. Senator Hart, the first candidate of both parties to declare his candidacy, was at 13% with Democratic voters/leaners and former Vice President Mondale, who was not even a candidate at the time, had 10% of the vote, Senator Glenn had 8%, and 28% of Democrats and Democratic leaners are undecided.

On the Republican side, Senator Bob Dole was in 1st place with 25% of respondents supporting him. In second was Senator Paul Laxalt with 18% of the vote, and not far behind him was Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, who had not declared any intention of running at that point, with 16% of the vote. 41% of Republicans and Republican leaners who responded were undecided.

 

[OnlyAlb]

I can't see a Carter comeback, I think Kennedy has the edge in the Primary.

 

[dw93]

I can't see a Carter comeback, I think Kennedy has the edge in the Primary.

There won't be a Carter comeback, I just put him in there to make things interesting.

 

[OnlyAlb]

There won't be a Carter comeback, I just put him in there to make things interesting.

It was what I was thinking. Loving the timeline by the way.

 

[dw93]

It was what I was thinking. Loving the timeline by the way.

Thank you. Hopefully others are enjoying it as well.

 

[Pericles]

Yes this is great. I wonder who'll win in 1984, given the economic recovery I predict a Republican president but it'll be closer than IOTl. Seems interesting, I'll stay tuned. This is an interesting twist that could produce a milder shift to conservatism and other interesting butterflies, and it's a unique PoD. Great work!

 

[dw93]

July: Good News on the Economy and news on the Presidential Race:

The month of July gave good news on the economy for President Ford. Economic Reports said the economy has been out of recession since November of '82 and the unemployment rate had fallen 1% since December and looked like it was going to continue to fall, and output and sales had exceeded their pre recession Peak. This was good news for the President, who had presided over a recession (the worst since the Great Depression) for most of his elected term in office.

July was also an interesting month for the Presidential race. On July 20th, Former President Carter ended his Presidential exploratory committee and endorsed his Vice President Walter Mondale, who was not a candidate at that point. However, everyone knew the Former Vice President had Presidential ambitions and was going to throw his hat in the race if and when Carter dropped out, and with Carter's endorsement, Mondale had more reason to get in the race, and did so on July 27th.

On the Republican side, we also had a new candidate. Three days before Mondale got in, Senate Minority leader Howard Baker announced his candidacy for the Presidency from his home state of Tennessee, speaking about his record as the Republican leader in the Senate saying that he was the right man with the right kind of experience to "carry on with the policies of Gerald Ford that got our economy going again and made us more respected around the world."

 

[dw93]

July 30th Gallup Poll:

The Second Gallup poll for the Presidential race had been released. With President Carter out and Mondale in, the polls showed Senator Ted Kennedy at first with 25%, Senator Hart, who was in third with 13% in June, surges to second place with 23%, and Vice President Mondale, who had just entered 3 days before the poll was in third place with 15%. Senator John Glenn was in 4th place with 10%. 27% of voters were undecided.

On the Republican side, Senator Dole and Senator Laxalt were tied with 26% of the vote. Senator Baker, who had entered the race on the 24th, was at 20%. 28% of Republicans were undecided.

Also, Gallup did hypothetical match ups between the candidates of the two parties. The polls showed Senator Baker leading all the Democratic candidates, faring the best against Senator Kennedy, who is the leading candidate amongst Democrats. Senator Laxalt, in a hypothetical match up, would beat Senator Kennedy, Senator Glenn, and Vice President Mondale. However, a Laxalt vs. Hart matchup would be a toss up. Hypothetical matchups with Senator Dole and the Democratic nominees showed results similar to those of Paul Laxalt.

 

[Lost Freeway]

Yes this is great. I wonder who'll win in 1984, given the economic recovery I predict a Republican president but it'll be closer than IOTl. Seems interesting, I'll stay tuned. This is an interesting twist that could produce a milder shift to conservatism and other interesting butterflies, and it's a unique PoD. Great work!

That depends on who succeeds Ford.

 

[Pericles]

So Baker's the most electable and Kennedy's the least. How big is small are the poll leads in general election match-ups? Keep it up.

 

[dw93]

Full Match up Polls

So Baker's the most electable and Kennedy's the least. How big is small are the poll leads in general election match-ups? Keep it up.

Howard Baker 53% vs. Edward M. Kennedy: 45%
Howard Baker 50% vs. Gary Hart: 48.5%
Howard Baker 51.5% vs. Walter Mondale: 46.5%
Howard Baker 52% vs. John Glenn: 46%

Paul Laxalt 51.5% vs. Edward Kennedy: 46.4%
Paul Laxalt 49.5% vs. Gary Hart: 49.5%
Paul Laxalt 50% vs. Walter Mondale: 48%
Paul Laxalt 50.1% vs. John Glenn: 47.5%

Bob Dole: 51.5% vs Edward Kennedy: 46%
Bob Dole: 49.9% vs Gary Hart: 48.9%
Bob Dole: 50% vs. Walter Mondale: 48%
Bob Dole: 50.1% vs. John Glenn: 47.5%

(Man making up polling is hard)

 

[Pericles]

Howard Baker 53% vs. Edward M. Kennedy: 45%
Howard Baker 50% vs. Gary Hart: 48.5%
Howard Baker 51.5% vs. Walter Mondale: 46.5%
Howard Baker 52% vs. John Glenn: 46%

Paul Laxalt 51.5% vs. Edward Kennedy: 46.4%
Paul Laxalt 49.5% vs. Gary Hart: 49.5%
Paul Laxalt 50% vs. Walter Mondale: 48%
Paul Laxalt 50.1% vs. John Glenn: 47.5%

Bob Dole: 51.5% vs Edward Kennedy: 46%
Bob Dole: 49.9% vs Gary Hart: 48.9%
Bob Dole: 50% vs. Walter Mondale: 48%
Bob Dole: 50.1% vs. John Glenn: 47.5%

(Man making up polling is hard)

Thanks. But how is Hart doing so well when IOTL at this time he was only just getting out of single digits or stuck at single digits on the polls, or at best in the middle of the field?

 

[dw93]

Thanks. But how is Hart doing so well when IOTL at this time he was only just getting out of single digits or stuck at single digits on the polls, or at best in the middle of the field?

Different campaigning and Carter keeping Mondale out of consideration long enough, plus Glenn does worse than OTL.

 

[dw93]

August of '83: The troops are out of Lebanon, and Ford and Andropov meet again

On August 5th, 1983, the last of the marines that were in Lebanon returned home to the United States. The President issued a statement saying that "These Marines served their country well and achieved their mission, and in doing so they made their commander and chief proud."

Four days later, President Ford, Secretary Bush, and National Security advisor Henry Kissinger went to Moscow to meet with General Secretary Yuri Andropov to discuss arms reductions and a possible Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.

After hours of discussion, Ford agreed to bring U.S. Defense Spending, which increased every year of his second Presidency, down to what they were in 1981, and Andropov agreed to begin a gradual withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, with all troops being out of Afghanistan by the early 1985. However, they could not reach an agreement to reduce Nuclear Arms. While Ford was disappointed that no arms reductions treaties were reached, he was happy that he got the soviet union out of Afghanistan, even if he did had to cut back his defense build up.

 

[dw93]

How am I doing so far? Any suggestions going forward?

 

[Pericles]

How am I doing so far? Any suggestions going forward?

This TL is great, butI think for suggestions maybe go a bit into the consequences of Ford's policies, such as how good is the economy and the state of the budget, though you've done that a bit already. Just I'm interested in whether the Reagan Revokution and the rise of conservatism is avoided, and on thr alternate course America and the world takes. Also, any butterflies on overseas politics, that's always interesting. I'd like it if you included something about New Zealand in there.