Gerald Ford elected in 1980

[dw93]

Reagan is confirmed

On May 11th, a month after the President announced his nomination of Reagan, the house and the senate narrowly confirmed him, with 51 votes in the Senate, and 230 in the house. Reagan flew out to Washington DC immediately after he was confirmed.

On May 12th, Ronald Wilson Reagan was sworn in as the 44th Vice President of the United States with Chief Justice Berger administering the oath of office. The Vice President's four children as well as President and Mrs. Ford were in attendance.

In his speech, the President thanked Ford for the opportunity to serve as Vice President. He also paid tribute to his predecessor Jack Kemp, and said that his prayers were with the Kemp family. The new Vice President also said that he looked forward to working with the President and his team, as well as the congress to get the economy going again and to slow the growth of the federal government.

The Vice President would temporarily reside at a hotel, while his wife Nancy goes back to California to arrange the move into the official residence of the Vice President, Number One Observatory Circle.

 

[GeographyDude]

Oh, it's not just Reagan.

It's the entire assumptions, misconceptions, brinksmanship, poker play, etc, etc, etc. On both sides.

I think avoiding a dangerous 1983, or similar year, is quite an AHC.

 

[dw93]

PATCO goes on Strike

On August 3rd 1981, the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO) went on strike, demanding better working conditions, a 32 hr. work week, and better pay, and also wanted to be excluded civil service clauses that they disliked.

The President held a press conference on the matter from the rose garden of the White House. Ford, who was endorsed by PATCO in 1980 said that while he sympathized with the organization, he asked them to end the strike, as their striking is a threat to national security and is in violation of the law. He ordered the President of the organization and the administrator of the FAA to work out an agreement within 48 hours.

Two days later, an agreement was reached. The air traffic controllers were to get better working conditions, and a 32 hour work week with a small increase in pay. They did not, however get to be excluded from the civil services clauses that they wanted to be excluded from. With an agreement reached, the strikers returned to work the following day. The President congratulated both sides for reaching an agreement, but made very clear to the strikers that if they were to illegally strike again, there would be consequences up to and including termination. He said that was true of other federal employees as well.

 

[dw93]

Ford signs a Tax Cut:

On August 13th, President Ford signed the Economic recovery Tax act of 1981, or as he called them the Kemp Tax Cuts to encourage economic growth through cuts in individual tax rates, incentives for small businesses, and incentives for savings and other purposes. In it, was an across the board 15% reduction in income taxes over the course of three years, bringing the top marginal rate down from 70% to 58% and bringing the bottom rate down from 14% to 9%. It also included cuts to estate taxes and taxes paid by businesses and corporations by $50 billion over the course of five years.

Key people at the bill signing ceremony were Senator Bill Roth of Delaware, who sponsored the bill in the Senate, Vice President Reagan, Senate Majority leader Baker, and House Minority leader Bob Michel. Also in attendance was the widow of Former Vice President Kemp, Joanne Kemp. Before signing the bill, thanked the members of the house and senate who supported the bill, and gave Special thanks to Senator Baker and Congressman Michel for doing the tough task gathering the votes in a Democratic controlled house and a very narrowly controlled Republican senate. He thanked Mrs. Kemp for attending the ceremony, and paid tribute to her husband. He said that "if it wasn't for Jack's work in his final days in the house and his work during the early days of the administration in crafting these cuts, this day might not have been possible." He also was grateful to the late VP for "crafting a tax cut that will be effective and at the same time not create a massive deficit."

 

[Paul V McNutt]

Reagan as Vice President, that will be interesting. I forget how he didn't get the nomination in 1980. I was thinking he would be the front runner for 1984. In those good economic times and with his national exposure as vice president he probably win. He would start his presidency four year older. Age could be an issue in 1988.

 

[dw93]

Reagan as Vice President, that will be interesting. I forget how he didn't get the nomination in 1980. I was thinking he would be the front runner for 1984. In those good economic times and with his national exposure as vice president he probably win. He would start his presidency four year older. Age could be an issue in 1988.

Who says Reagan is going to run though...?

 

[GeographyDude]

On August 3rd 1981, the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO) went on strike, demanding better working conditions, a 32 hr. work week, and better pay, and also wanted to be excluded civil service clauses that they disliked.

The President held a press conference on the matter from the rose garden of the White House. Ford, who was endorsed by PATCO in 1980 said that while he sympathized with the organization, he asked them to end the strike, as their striking is a threat to national security and is in violation of the law. He ordered the President of the organization and the administrator of the FAA to work out an agreement within 48 hours.

Two days later, an agreement was reached. The air traffic controllers were to get better working conditions, and a 32 hour work week with a small increase in pay. They did not, however get to be excluded from the civil services clauses that they wanted to be excluded from. With an agreement reached, the strikers returned to work the following day. The President congratulated both sides for reaching an agreement, but made very clear to the strikers that if they were to illegally strike again, there would be consequences up to and including termination. He said that was true of other federal employees as well.

Very nicely done. Ford is strong, without being completely anti-labor. He rather flashes the Ace that he disapproves of what the union is doing, letting the implication hang there that he could do more. And whereas ordering both sides to reach an agreement within 48 may not strictly be within the purview of the president, in this case it worked.

I've heard that Reagan firing PATCO set the tone for the '80s in how corporations would also try to treat unions. That this brought the harsh approach into acceptability as some kind of new norm. Although the 1980s probably would have been a tough decade for American labor in any case.

PS I think we might tend to neglect labor PODs here at alt history. So, doubly nicely done.

 

[dw93]

The rest of 1981:

August 19th: President Ford makes history by appointing the first female justice to the Supreme Court, Sandra Day O'Connor. She would take her seat on the court on September 25th.

September 3rd: President Ford gives an Oval Office address to the nation concerning AIDs, first recognized by the CDC in June of that year. The President said in the address that he "has set up a commission to find the causes of AIDS, how to combat the spread of it, and how to treat it."

November 27th: Representatives from the United States and the Soviet Union met in Geneva to begin negotiating intermediate-range nuclear weapon reductions in Europe. These meetings would end December 17th without any agreement reached.

The Economy: The economy, which was in recession from January to July 1980, saw a recovery take place through the rest of 1980 and the first half of 1981. However, the economy went back into recession in July of 1981, thanks to rising interest rates to combat inflation, which cause weaknesses in housing and manufacturing sectors and other sectors related to them. Unemployment, which never fell below 7% between April 1980 and July 1981 was on the rise again, and the President's approval ratings began to fall.

 

[GeographyDude]

The concept of a 'double dip' recession interests me because it seems to happen on a fairly regular basis, and is something we as citizens should know more about!

I have heard as you probably have, too, that employment lags, which means we can have a recovery (as measured in business investment?) for quite a well before we see an improvement in the jobs situation. Would like to know more.

In OTL, Reagan was a Keynesian without half trying, because he had a strong belief that taxes were too high for good economic growth. Plus, he wanted a military modernization and build up. So, with less of a Keynesian approach under a President Ford, do we see a slower recovery?

 

[GeographyDude]

And good for President Ford for getting out on front on the AIDS epidemic.

And Reagan talks about, what government is good at, what it's not good out. Don't know how the hell he missed this one. Seems like a newly emerging infection is a pretty good function for an existing and functioning CDC.

And once you make the mistake, you don't want to acknowledge it, so you keep compounding the original mistake! This is a very human trait. What Reagan needed was a couple of old war horses, of varying political stripes and world views, who could tell him, Hey Ronnie, I think you're making a mistake.

 

[dw93]

1982: A bad economy, a change in the Senate, and a Change in the USSR:

1982 would be dominated by the economic recession. Revenues fell after the "Kemp Tax Cuts" took effect, and congressional Democrats felt that a tax increase was necessary to make up for the loss of revenues and keep the deficit from increasing more than it already had. Congressman Pete Stark of California introduced the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (originally introduced as H.R. 4961), TEFRA, which would undo key parts of the tax cuts. The President in response said "the average citizen and businesses, who are already struggling in this recession,would be hit very hard by a tax increase" and that he "was not under any circumstances going to reverse that tax cuts that were signed a year earlier."

However, revenues continued to fall, and the budget gap continued to widen. The President, who was more of a budget hawk than a supply sider, knew taxes were going to have to be raised at some point to get the budget under control again. The President also knew that there would be political fall out from conservatives in his party if he signed a tax hike.

Vice President Reagan, in an interview on "Face the Nation" said that he would do everything in his power as President of the Senate to stop a tax increase, and said that "if I have to cast the deciding vote in the Senate in the event that there's a tie, I will vote against the increase."

Then in July, TEFRA, which passed the house at the end of the previous year, and was now on the floor of the Senate for a vote, and it was a tie, and the Vice President did what he said he would do, he cast the deciding vote against the bill. Congressional Democrats were furious.

The President hoped Reagan voting against the bill would delay the tax increase issue until after the midterm elections coming up in November. While it did just that, the midterm results weren't pretty for Republicans as unemployment hit a high of 10.8% by election day. The Democrats gained 30 house seats in the, reversing any Republican gains made there in 1980, and the GOP lost two seats in the senate, handing the Democrats a slim majority of 51 seats.

Then, a major change happened abroad. Leonid Brezhnev, General Secretary of the of the Central Committee (CC) of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, who held that position since 1964, had died on November 12th. Yuri Andropov, was elected to succeed him, and was the first former head of the KGB to hold that position.

The state of the economy, the changes in the Senate, and the changes in the USSR will make for a very interesting 1983...

 

[OnlyAlb]

Very interesting.

 

[dw93]

The lame Duck Session of the 97th Congress:

On December 11th, 1982, Congress passed and the President signed the Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Stimulus ACT (FRESA) of 1982, which undid the tax cut on the top marginal rate, returning it to 70% and undid the $15 billion cut in estate taxes, which were part of the "Kemp Tax Cuts." It also put $25 billion dollars towards economic stimulus programs.

The President and Congressional leaders met in the White House two days after the midterm elections. Both the President and the leaders wanted to pass legislation that would help stimulate the economy without creating a larger budget gap. The President, wanted to achieve this by leaving the income tax cuts of the Kemp plan in place, reverse $25 billion of the $50 billion in tax cuts for corporations, businesses, and estate taxes, and put $10 billion towards economic stimulus. The Democratic congress, wanted another attempt at passing TEFRA, which failed in the Senate thanks to Vice President Reagan's tie breaking vote, and wanted $100 billion dollars towards economic stimulus.

The President said under no circumstances would he increase taxes on business and corporations at a time when unemployment was over 10% nor would he support $100 billion in economic stimulus, saying it would "blow an even bigger hole in the budget." Democratic leaders urged Ford to cut defense spending, but he refused to that as well, due to the Soviet Union still being in Afghanistan and with a new General Secretary taking power in the USSR. Both sides agreed that the cut in the bottom tax bracket rate was to stay in place. Finally, after almost a week of negotiation, a deal was reached.

After signing the legislation, the President, who made it clear the deal wasn't perfect, said it was a step, and said the 97th congress would end on a high note. Ford also hoped to get the same or close to the level of bi partisanship that was demonstrated in the final days of the 97th congress, from the 98th. Congressional leaders were also happy a bill was passed, but like Ford, wished it was better.

Partisans in both parties, were unhappy however. Liberals were upset because there wasn't enough stimulus and cuts to defense spending, while conservatives were upset that Kemp tax cuts weren't left alone, and that there weren't any cuts in domestic spending.

 

[dw93]

Jan. and Feb. 1983: Where Ford stands and the Start of a new Presidential Race:

With unemployment still high, President Ford's approval rating at the start of 1983 stood at 34%. While Ford didn't have to worry about the 1984 election in a sense that he wasn't legally able to run again, he did know that if his approval ratings were still in the 30's by the time the general election campaign kicked off, and if the economy remained weak, his party was going to have a tough time winning.

Then in February, little known Senator Gary Hart of Colorado announced that he was running for the 1984 Democratic nomination. In his announcement, he criticized the Ford administration over its handling of the economy and called the President's tax cut a "fiscally irresponsible handout for corporate America." Hart also said that we need to take foreign affairs in "a new direction" claiming the polices of the past have clearly failed.

 

[theev]

Hart 84'!

 

[bookmark95]

It appears Gerald Ford will be remembered as the most bland human being to serve two terms, since he doesn't seem to have any substantial victories, nor the great charisma of Ronald Reagan.

 

[dw93]

It appears Gerald Ford will be remembered as the most bland human being to serve two terms, since he doesn't seem to have any substantial victories, nor the great charisma of Ronald Reagan.

Bland? Probably, but he'll be remembered better than OTL.

 

[bookmark95]

Bland? Probably, but he'll be remembered better than OTL.

Obviously. Carter will be remembered as a man way out of his depth, but Ford strikes me as a guy who will be remembered for being competent.

 

[dw93]

Cold War: Talks between Ford and Andropov Begin

Also, in February of 1983, President Ford met in Geneva with General Secretary Yuri Andropov of the USSR to discuss the reduction of Nuclear Arms. Andropov, who was convinced the United States was going to launch an attack due to Ford's increases in defense spending, which consisted of an increase of $70 billion in 1981, then another 110 billion in 1982, and a projected $150 billion for 1983. Ford, and Secretary of State George Bush, who accompanied him on the trip, wanted to assure Andropov that we were not planning an attack on the Soviet Union. and our increases in defense, beginning at the end of the Carter administration, happened because of the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979 and because of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that also happened that year.

Ford told Andropov that even after the hostage crisis ended, he and his administration felt the need to increase defense spending because of the ongoing Soviet War in Afghanistan, and said that if USSR began to withdraw from Afghanistan, the U.S. and the Soviet Union could begin talks of mutual reductions in nuclear arms and the U.S. would begin to wind down the increases in defense. Andropov, privately was beginning to think the war was a mistake, and told Ford that he would consider a negotiated gradual withdrawing of troops from Afghanistan.

While no actual treaties or agreements came about, the two did agree to meet later in the year to negotiate a possible Soviet withdraw from Afghanistan and a possible arms reduction treaty.

 

[dw93]

The Presidential Race Continues: Who else will Run?

Looking at possibly pulling off what President Ford did 4 years ago, it was reported in a New York times from early March that sources around Former President Jimmy Carter for a second non consecutive term as President. Although it wasn't official, these sources claim the Former President is looking into launching an exploratory committee to test the waters for a possible Presidential run.

The question most political analysts have however is, who will run for the Republican nomination with President Gerald Ford being constitutionally ineligible to run in 1984? Many speculate Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, who's declining on another senate run in the next year, will throw his hat into the Presidential race. Others say Senator Bob Dole of Kansas is a possibility, but with Baker being a moderate, will conservatives rally behind Dole? Will they rally behind Senator Paul Laxalt of Nevada, a very close friend of Ronald Reagan, or will they rally behind the Vice President himself if the 72 year old decides to take another run for the Presidency?

Of course, it's too soon to tell what the economy and the situation abroad will be by the time of the primaries and by the time of the General election and that will certainly affect who the Democrats and the Republicans nominate and who will win the General.