George Wallace Runs in 1972

wormyguy

Banned
What if, during the 1972 presidential election, George Wallace decided to again run for president on the American Independent Party ticket? In that year, the AIP nominated the unknown California (bad) Republican (worse) Congressman John Schmitz, who was so far-right that he was expelled from the ultraconservative John Birch Society for "extremism." This was a little too much even for the Southern segregationist voter. If the much better-known George Wallace ran, he may well have done very well in several Southern states, taking the votes from those who were rather wary of voting either for McGovern or for a Republican, and presumably would throw a big wrench in Nixon's "Southern Strategy," if he even attempts it at all.

What would be the effects of Wallace's campaign, and the delaying or altogether preventing the North/South realignment of American Presidential politics?
 

Tom Kalbfus

Banned
Maybe he can select Gromit to be his running mate, that way it can be the Wallace and Gromit presidential ticket. Would you vote for Wallace and Gromit:)?
 
What if, during the 1972 presidential election, George Wallace decided to again run for president on the American Independent Party ticket? In that year, the AIP nominated the unknown California (bad) Republican (worse) Congressman John Schmitz, who was so far-right that he was expelled from the ultraconservative John Birch Society for "extremism." This was a little too much even for the Southern segregationist voter. If the much better-known George Wallace ran, he may well have done very well in several Southern states, taking the votes from those who were rather wary of voting either for McGovern or for a Republican, and presumably would throw a big wrench in Nixon's "Southern Strategy," if he even attempts it at all.

What would be the effects of Wallace's campaign, and the delaying or altogether preventing the North/South realignment of American Presidential politics?

What a dichotomy! McGovern on one side and Wallace to the other?! That scenario totally blows my mind. The TV debates would have been extremely weird/interesting/incomprehensible. Let's not go there.

Nixon would still have won of course, and Watergate likely would have gone down same as OTL. As for "Southern Strategy" -- I think the real catalyst for political realignment was Roe and the ERA, and not so much the Strategy. While Nixon's assessment of the future role of the GOP was farsighted, it took the legalization of abortion and the question of women's rights to forge the alliances, lobbies, and socio-religious unions critical to today's highly moralized and "confessional" GOP (for lack of a better word.) Similarly, McGovern presaged the Democratic opposition to this movement in many ways, particularly in his willingness to advance the cause of abortion, for example. The Roe/ERA alignment brought together groups previously antithetical to one another -- like Catholics and Evangelicals -- and created a lasting if somewhat antagonistic union at times.

Don't get me wrong -- I think that racism and civil rights were still significant and troubling issues in 1972. Wallace still would have won a good degree of support from those that harbored resentments against desegregation and the antagonism towards the civil freedoms of African-Americans. But I think alliances from that point forward were beginning to align themselves along socio-religious structures, and that by the time of Reagan this type of structure became a large plank in the GOP platform.
 
You need to remove Arthur Bremer's assassination attempt in some form or other. Have him go after Nixon the way he originally planned, or have him miss Wallace. I dont think Wallace had a chance of actually winning the primaries from a wheelchair.
 
Actually, IOTL Nixon "induced" Wallace to run as a Democrat, with Karl and Segretti heading up the ratf***ing operation of which this was the crown jewel. The OTL Florida results give a good idea of the possibilities. He will sweep the Southern primaries though, and have the numbers to barter with McGovern for major concessions.

FYI: Karl's first mission of his career was using Humphrey stationery to send fundraising dinner invitees to the the Windy City's South Side. Chronicled in Resurrection City.
 
Okay, Wallace running as an independent might have a strong knock on effect for the highly contested Democratic Primaries of 1972. Sure a lot of his OTL supporters might not participate, but I'd wager most of them would participate in the primaries.

Assuming this, I think you could make a strong case for most of Wallace's votes going to the nearest (ideologically) candidate. Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson. Then again, Jackson's record on civil rights might cost him in the south. HOWEVER he did win South Carolina in OTL... Let's assume that Wallace's votes migrate en masse to Jackson in TTL allowing him to win many of the states (if not all or more...) than Wallace did in OTL in addition to those he won in OTL.

This gives Jackson an even higher delegate count than OTL and leads to him becoming the head of a "Stop McGovern" movement. Let's assume for a moment that this movement is a bit stronger than OTL and succeeds in overcoming McGovern's grassroots campaign by rallying the various portions of the Democratic party opposed to McGovern.

TTL's election will be a completely different beast than OTL's election of 1972. Jackson is going to give a far better showing for the Democrats and Wallace is certainly going to challenge the Republican "Solid South". To make things really interesting, you could conceivably throw the election into the House which would make Jackson POTUS...
 
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