George Wallace in 1972

Much to my chagrin, there exists no known timeline of George Wallace in 1972; not winning the nomination, let alone winning the election. However, it is one of the most fascinating scenarios of the 1972 election. Wallace had very strong momentum in the primaries until he was shot. He appealed to working class voters, and had distanced himself from his segregationist past, claiming to always have been a moderate on the issue and only against big government federal interference. The uncomfortable fact about American politics is that was good enough for a lot of voters. That all came to a halt in May of 1972. Wallace was nearly assassinated and crippled. He won the Maryland and Michigan primaries afterward, but his campaign disintegrated.

For ease, here's the wikipedia quote:

Alabama governor George Wallace, with his "outsider" image, did well in the South (he won every single county in the Florida primary) and among alienated and dissatisfied voters. What might have become a forceful campaign was cut short when Wallace was shot while campaigning, and left paralyzed in an assassination attempt by Arthur Bremer. Wallace did win the Maryland primary and the Michigan primary both held the following day (Tues. May 16), but his near assassination effectively ended his campaign.
What if George Wallace had not been shot? Some may argue it was an impossibility for him to win the nomination, but I'm not so sure. He had the South, and was making inroads with traditional, blue collar voters in the North who would never vote for George McGovern. In the wake of the McGovern–Fraser Commission reforms, the winner of the primaries was the winner of the nomination. If George Wallace can win the primaries, George Wallace could become the nominee. The contest against Richard Nixon in the general election is another matter. However, Wallace would threaten to take away the working class and the South, which were the two elements Nixon relied upon. McGovern was no threat in that regard. Wallace most certainly would be.
 
A Fascinating Scenario

I've thought about this a lot. Love to see others' thoughts. I have off-the-cuff (i.e., most likely daft) questions.

1. His choice of running mate would be crucial, begging the question, who would join the ticket to help him further distance from his segregation past? He'd certainly have to reach to the north or the west to further a new national image, preferably a candidate popular with the working class and demonstrably sympathetic to their frustrations as their slide into the rusty factory 70s was beginning.

2. CREEP and other shadow elements in the Nixon administration would swing into action during the primaries to try scuttling Wallace's nomination. RMN wanted exactly what he got -- a hard-core liberal opponent. A healthy campaigning Wallace offers some "fun" possible scenarios involving the machinations of those would keep the working class pure Nixon country.

3. One possible action from CREEP: procure op-eds using actual intelligence (or disinformation) about Soviet alarms about a Democratic Presidential-Nominee. The pitch from RMN might have leaned heavily on his diplomatic successes in balancing -- and pacifying the USSR and PRC. His ads might go "Daisy Girl".

4. The Democratic Party establishment would be apoplectic, especially since it was the McGovern - Fraser primaries-deside that led to the nomination of someone who was far to the right of their type of nominee they would get. The Democratic faithful would feel abandoned, left with two unpalatable.

Bipartisan party run? McGovern / Hatfield?

Or keeping in the "family" with McGovern / Jackson? If polling showed promise, several players might join on the top or the bottom of the ticket: Humphrey, who ached for the presidency; Muskie, deciding he wanted back in the race. Eugene McCarthy, a complex man whose independence from orthodoxy and erudite debates and speeches might be used to pull in enough of the New Left and give him room to bring aboard Scoot Jackson, or someone similar. Ted Kennedy would not have run in 1972 as a Democrat, so certainly would have no interest in a third party.

Of these, an independent party run by heavy weights seems unlikely. More likely a largely unknown but ambitious Democrat might run to build name recognition and his brand for future runs.

Perhaps most likely scenario? A great many Democrats stay home on election day, or switch over the Nixon.

All of these thoughts are off-the-cuff, some perhaps fanciful. Just tossing it out to kick around.
 
I don't see him winning the nomination. He could not have won a majority of the delegates. I always assumed that if he had not been shot, he would have run as the nominee of the American Independent Party. If so, I see him winning about 7 percent of the vote and winning Alabama and Mississippi. Richard Nixon wins less of a landslide. Last time we talked about this someone said that because of tax case against his brother, Nixon had intimidated Wallace and would not have run in the fall election.
 
The way I understood the delegate count at the time Wallace was shot-he did not have enough delegates-and not enough delegates were still in contention to change that even if Wallace ran the table. I'm not saying that him ever winning the nomination in 1972 is impossible-but the question is whether it was mathematically possible for him to win the nomination at the time of his assassination. If it wasn't a possibility-you'd need an earlier divergence to secure his nomination than just avoiding the assassination attempt as dramatic as a divergence as that would be.
 
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