I disagree with that. Outside the Iraq surge, his second term was an absolute failure - maybe the worst second term of any modern president.
There was the government's response to Katrina, which, while not fully the fault of his administration, still dominated much of his early second term presidency. That response, or lack thereof, in a heavily black city, didn't play well - and time won't change that. It'll always be remembered as a blemish for the country, both at the state and federal level.
Bush was unable to pass immigration reform, despite a groundswell of Democratic support in 2007. Support included Bush, Harry Reid, Arlen Specter, Ted Kennedy, John Kyl, John McCain and Lindsey Graham. He helped craft the bill and it failed even with its bipartisan support because the President couldn't round up enough of his own party's support to get it through.
Despite the surge's success, there is still a strong question about whether Bush had any viable exit strategy out of Iraq, which has proven itself in the last few years. There was still no end game for the U.S. and while many Republicans bemoan the fact Pres. Obama followed through with pulling out troops, the idea that the United States could continue high troop levels in the region, sustain that, is just not realistic. Iraq will always be an issue, especially with the growth of ISIS over the years, and I doubt history will be kind to Bush in that regard.
Moreover, while Bush doesn't deserve a brunt of the blame for the economic meltdown, he was president when it happened - and not just into his presidency, either. This isn't a situation where the bottom fell out just mere months into his first term, like, say, with Herbert Hoover, rather it happened at the end - which makes it that much more difficult for him to escape blame. Sure, there are many reasons the economy collapsed but Bush will be at, or near the top, in every reference solely because of how ingrained his presidency was in the recession.
Most of all of Bush's best defining moments happened in his first term - his tax cuts, Medicare Part D, his initial response to 9/11. Granted, Iraq was a first-term blunder, and something that will follow his legacy forever, but much of the damage of Iraq came in his second term.
He also failed with Social Security reform in his second term, which really got things off to a rocky start as it was his first major legislative push of that second term. Then there was scandal. From Valerie Plame, to wiretapping, to the aforementioned Katrina.
None of that will bode well for the history books. A one-term Bush avoids all of that, though. In the end, I think Bush will be remembered very similar to Carter and, let's be honest, despite the passing of time, Carter is still considered, by both Americans and many historians, a failure of a president. Fairly or not.
Funny you missed the very reason why I think the complete opposite of you.
Namely the economic crisis. Right now it's all blamed on Bush as villain #2 and the public still hates that Bush bailed out the car companies and banks.
There is no rational look at the events of 2008, its all full of pain and anger.
The pain and anger will go away in time, but we are talking many years and give way to a rational look at the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression and how Bush avoided a second Great Depression and the fact is we came very very close to one and few President's would have acted as decisively as Bush did at that time.
It will be a case study in American and even world political economic history of how the government can arrest a full on panic and economic crisis from wiping out the world economy. Bush right now is the biggest villain in the story next to the banks and automakers. That won't at all be the case when people actually look back with historian glasses because it's frankly not true.
Well you will say just look at Hoover the Great Depression wasn't his fault and he is blamed to this day. That was because he sat on his ass and let it happen and then globalized it by helping to put up super trade barriers.
As for issues like his failure on Immigration, it will screw his party for years and perhaps decades to come. If Trumpism wins out in the GOP and Hispanics become an African American like voting block going 90% democrats with them soon being 1/4th the nation well it could even destroy the modern GOP and give rise to a new party.
But, George W Bush won't be looked upon as the man who scapegoated Hispanics and turned them into a forever enemy of the GOP. He will be looked at as the guy who won 40% of the Hispanic vote and tried unsuccessfully to buck a loud and growing majority in his party that have an us vs them view on relations on immigrants from Latin America.
Basically historians will say the GOP had a chance to follow Bush's model and turn Hispanics into a 40-50% GOP voting block, but went with Trump style demagoguery and screwed themselves.