George W. Bush Assassinated in 2005; Consequences?

On May 10, 2005, President George W. Bush was giving a speech in the Freedom Square in Tbilisi, Georgia, the nation's capital. A man by name Vladimir Arutyunian threw a live hand grenade towards Bush, speaking. The grenade had its pin pulled, but did not explode because a red tartan handkerchief was wrapped tightly around it, preventing the safety lever from detaching. (Arutyunian had been holding it in the handkerchief while Bush was speaking.) No-one was harmed that day, and Arutyunian was arrested in July, and given a life sentence.

Your mission, should you choose to accept it: what if Arutyunian had not used the handkerchief? The POD might be something as simple as he forgot it, and he hides it in a jacket (IOTL, he was wearing one), and the assassination attempt succeeds. The causalities might include President Bush, his wife, and perhaps the Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili. With Bush dead, the president is Dick Cheney. While I have my own views about the man, from a purely allohistorical, non-partisan perspective, what would the Cheney administration be like? I have doubts about his competence, especially in the face of things such as Hurricane Katrina.
 
George W. Bush becomes a beloved "martyred president". The first murdered on foreign soil.

President Dick Cheney is elected in 2008 and serves a total of 7 years before being succeeded by Barack Obama.
 
George W. Bush becomes a beloved "martyred president". The first murdered on foreign soil.

President Dick Cheney is elected in 2008 and serves a total of 7 years before being succeeded by Barack Obama.

Cheney is likely out in '08, as he would take much of the blame for Iraq and the recession. The republicans might hold on to congress in the '06 midterms, though.
 
Turbulent political times are ahead for Georgia, assuming the Georgian President lives, but if he dies, maybe civil war?

Actually, looking at it, you can get Bush, or you can get everyone else, because the podium (where Bush was speaking), was near on 20 metres from the seating area.
 
Bush's approval ratings started to sink in 2004 and 2005. Assassinating him would cause him to be a martyred President, at least by Republicans. Cheney takes over obviously and starts off with high approval ratings out of sympathy. Katrina still happens, Cheney, the state of Louisiana, and local officials botch the response and Cheney's approvals begin to fall. Syria possibly gets bombed in 2006, Iraq still spirals into chaos, and Afghanistan still rages on, so the Democrats still make gains in the midterms, but probably less than OTL, as there's still sympathy for Bush, so the GOP may keep control of one house of congress (I honestly can't see them keeping both unless the assassination happens in mid to late 2006). Cheney's pal Rumsfeld stays on as Sec. Of Defense, so there's no surge in Iraq. Cheney makes clear in 2008 that he isn't running for President in 2008 in early 2007 so the GOP and Democratic primaries more or less go as OTL. Any increase in the minimum wage is vetoed by the President. The economy begins to slide at the end of 2007, the economy falls into crisis in September of 2008. With that and possibly even more instability abroad, Senator Obama or Senator Clinton is elected the 45th President of the United States. President Cheney leaves office with an approval rating even lower than Bush's 34% OTL.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
You might consider the possibility that Cheney would die of a heart attack before a year is out. His heart is well-known to be weak and there is literally no job more stressful than that of President of the United States.
 
You might consider the possibility that Cheney would die of a heart attack before a year is out. His heart is well-known to be weak and there is literally no job more stressful than that of President of the United States.

I think he'd survive if it's less than four years (May 2005-January 2009). If he did have a heart attack and lived, I can see him resigning, making his VP or if he still hadn't chosen one by the time it happened, then Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert becoming President. He obviously, as I stated in my original reply declines to run in 2008.
 
Why is everyone so convinced Dick Cheney would be a bad president or not wish to run in 2008?

Almost no "accidental" president fails to run for a full term of his own when given a chance.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
Why is everyone so convinced Dick Cheney would be a bad president or not wish to run in 2008?

Almost no "accidental" president fails to run for a full term of his own when given a chance.

Cheney never wanted a high profile, high visibility position. He much preferred to work behind the scenes and exert influence that way. His health was not good, and would not stand up to the stress of the Presidency.

Honestly, I would be surprised if he did not die in office if he was President. I doubt he'd run in 2008. He didn't OTL, either.

As for his success, I am not convinced that a member of either party would have prevented the financial collapse of 2008, something structural in the works since the 70s, and he would not have spent as much time as Bush did in gaining good relations with individual Sunni tribal leaders at the same time as appeasing Maliki, making Iraq not take an upswing in 2008. Cheney I don't think had the energy or desire to do the job, but I don't think he would resign, at least not if Hastert was the successor. Bush knew the guy was a sleaze and could barely tolerate his presence, and Cheney knew more about skeletons in the closet than most veeps since LBJ, and would know better.
 
Why is everyone so convinced Dick Cheney would be a bad president or not wish to run in 2008?

Almost no "accidental" president fails to run for a full term of his own when given a chance.

He's an old man with a weak heart and he was already unpopular by OTL 2008. He'd make most of the same mistakes Bush made, and some could go even worse. By 2008 he would know he had no chance of winning reelection or even the Republican nomination.
 
He's an old man with a weak heart and he was already unpopular by OTL 2008. He'd make most of the same mistakes Bush made, and some could go even worse. By 2008 he would know he had no chance of winning reelection or even the Republican nomination.

Taking over for a beloved martyred president (which is what Bush would be) would make Cheney much more popular.

Lots of people considered LBJ a loathsome individual yet coming in after JFKs death gave him a staggeringly huge boost.
 
Taking over for a beloved martyred president (which is what Bush would be) would make Cheney much more popular.

Lots of people considered LBJ a loathsome individual yet coming in after JFKs death gave him a staggeringly huge boost.

I really do think that Cheney would be horribly incompetent. At first, he'd get approval out of sympathy, but when he bungles the economy and the Middle East...
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
It's a question I've also asked before, and the answer is this: Cheney not great, VP Pick should be interesting, War on Terror has a focus in the Caucasus, Cheney unlikely to run in 2008 given his health issues.
 
I think Dick Cheney is in trouble regardless of his competency, due to perception. People will give all the credit for the Bush administration's positive achievements (such as they are) to the recently deceased President, and then blame 'the way things are going now' on the Cheney administration. I doubt that that Hurricane Katrina response would be significantly different, but it would be 'yet another example that old Cheney can't get a grip on the reigns of state.'
 
I think Dick Cheney is in trouble regardless of his competency, due to perception. People will give all the credit for the Bush administration's positive achievements (such as they are) to the recently deceased President, and then blame 'the way things are going now' on the Cheney administration. I doubt that that Hurricane Katrina response would be significantly different, but it would be 'yet another example that old Cheney can't get a grip on the reigns of state.'

If President Bush is killed in May of 2005, when Hurricane Katrina happens President Cheney will still be considered to be well within the traditional "honeymoon period" of a new administration.

Very few are likely to blame him for problems with the Katrina response as he would've only been president for a few months.
 
If President Bush is killed in May of 2005, when Hurricane Katrina happens President Cheney will still be considered to be well within the traditional "honeymoon period" of a new administration.

Very few are likely to blame him for problems with the Katrina response as he would've only been president for a few months.

The people of Louisiana would blame him. Frankly, I don't think that he would be at all excused by the fact that he was new.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
I think the Republican loss of Congress in '06 had a lot more to do with the attempt to partially privatize social security in 2005 than the Katrina response or the ethical issues in the Congressional GOP in 2006.

Cheney, or a Democrat for that matter, probably wouldn't have been able to fix the Katrina response, but I don't know if he'd go after social security reform in 2005 either. That might help.
 
I think the Republican loss of Congress in '06 had a lot more to do with the attempt to partially privatize social security in 2005 than the Katrina response or the ethical issues in the Congressional GOP in 2006.

Cheney, or a Democrat for that matter, probably wouldn't have been able to fix the Katrina response, but I don't know if he'd go after social security reform in 2005 either. That might help.

Trying to reform SS hurt the GOP badly, I would agree with that being number one, but ironically I would also say the Congressional scandals including the Foley scandel not talked about today, but was a huge issue at the time was number 2. It looked to the whole country like Hastert and his allies in the leadership went along with and hushed up a member of their party trying to sleep with late teenage boys.
 
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