George HW Bush 1984

Ronald Reagan was old - 73 years old in 1984.

What if Reagan had opted to not go for a second term due to concern about his health and HW Bush was nominee in 1984? He'd win easily. He likely wins again in 1988.

Bush's final four VP choices in 1988 were Quayle, Kemp, Bob Dole, and Liz Dole.
Paul Laxalt and Howard Baker also would be options.
 
Ronald Reagan was old - 73 years old in 1984.

What if Reagan had opted to not go for a second term due to concern about his health and HW Bush was nominee in 1984? He'd win easily. He likely wins again in 1988.

Bush's final four VP choices in 1988 were Quayle, Kemp, Bob Dole, and Liz Dole.
Paul Laxalt and Howard Baker also would be options.
The Republican Party likely trends more toward the center, despite the high expectations placed on Bush to further Reagan's conservatism. Foreign policy matters such as the Cold War and Iran-Contra Affair are handled slightly better than OTL.

Bush probably doesn't pick Quayle or the Doles. On January 20, 1985, Quayle would have only been a Senator for four years. I remember reading elsewhere on this site that Bush didn't pick Bob Dole because not only was Dole viewed as baggage from 1976, Bush and Dole secretly accused each other of having deprived one another of the nomination in 1980 (more likely than not, Dole runs in 1992 for the Republican nomination against whomever Bush's VP is.) On January 20th, 1985, Elizabeth Dole would have only been Secretary of Transportation for less than two years (more likely than not, Bush retains her from the previous Reagan cabinet.)

Many people on this sight concur Paul Laxalt is the more likely choice for Bush's VP, given his conservatism and friendship with Reagan. Howard Baker would be a pretty solid choice, but Bush probably wouldn't pick him because he doesn't bring regional balance as a Southerner, nor ideological balance as a moderate (more likely than not, Bush gives him a role in his administration. Whether or not it's OTL's White House Chief of Staff is moot.)

Jack Kemp, while providing regional balance and considered right-wing in the 1990s, was considered a moderate in the 1980s. Bush probably nominates Kemp to serve as his Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during his second term.
 
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Ronald Reagan was old - 73 years old in 1984.

What if Reagan had opted to not go for a second term due to concern about his health and HW Bush was nominee in 1984? He'd win easily. He likely wins again in 1988.

Bush's final four VP choices in 1988 were Quayle, Kemp, Bob Dole, and Liz Dole.
Paul Laxalt and Howard Baker also would be options.

Bush almost certainly wins. The improving economy, Reagan's popularity, and Mondale's incompetence will guarantee that. Even if butterflies result in the Democrats nominating Gary Hart instead, the Bush campaign can easily exploit his opponent's weaknesses (McGovern, Hart's affairs, lack of policy substance, etc) and win big in November. In 1988 Bush probably wins again, unless he becomes directly tied to the Iran-Contra scandal and/or he receives political blame for the 1987 stock market crash - in which case the Democrats could win with a strong enough candidate.

As for Bush's VP, it probably won't be Quayle. Kemp, Laxalt, or Howard Baker would be better choices. If Bush is re-elected in 1988, whoever his VP is most likely loses in 1992 due to the poor economy.
 
I still think Corazon Aquino becomes Philippine President via People Power Revolution on February 25th, 1986 in this TL like she did in real life.
 
I still think Corazon Aquino becomes Philippine President via People Power Revolution on February 25th, 1986 in this TL like she did in real life.
I think ITTL would be Ramos who is an ally of Bush who would be VP of Cory and replace her ..Doy Laurel would be forgotten completely.
 
I think her big mistake was picking Laurel as VP. Had she convinced Ramos to serve as VP, I still have Ramos winning in 1992.
I think if Ramos spearheaded the Anti-Marcos movement or he sidelined Doy when she expresses her desire to run it will happen and Cory might not even create the 1987 constitution and restore the 1935 constitution.
 
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I think if Ramos spearheaded the Anti-Marcos movement or he sidelined Doy when she expresses her desire to run it will happen and Cory might not even create the 1987 constitution and restore the 1935 constitution.
I have a Corazon Aquino TL right now, you can take a look at it, I'm working on her US tour....
 
Would there even be an Iran-Contra with HW in charge?

Deficits will be smaller here.

The Republican Party likely trends more toward the center, despite the high expectations placed on Bush to further Reagan's conservatism. Foreign policy matters such as the Cold War and Iran-Contra Affair are handled slightly better than OTL.

Bush probably doesn't pick Quayle or the Doles. On January 20, 1985, Quayle would have only been a Senator for four years. I remember reading elsewhere on this site that Bush didn't pick Bob Dole because not only was Dole viewed as baggage from 1976, Bush and Dole secretly blamed each other as having deprived one another of the nomination in 1980 (more likely than not, Dole runs in 1992 for the Republican nomination against whomever Bush's VP is for the nomination.) On January 20th, 1985, Elizabeth Dole would have only been Secretary of Transportation for less than two years (more likely than not, Bush retains her from the previous Reagan cabinet.)

Many people on this sight concur Paul Laxalt is the more likely choice for Bush's VP, given his conservatism and friendship with Reagan. Howard Baker would be a pretty solid choice, but Bush probably wouldn't pick him because he doesn't bring regional balance as a Southerner, nor ideological balance as a moderate (more likely than not, Bush gives him a role in his administration. Whether or not it's OTL's White House Chief of Staff is moot.)

Jack Kemp, while providing regional balance and considered right-wing in the 1990s, was considered a moderate in the 1980s. Bush probably nominates Kemp to serve as his Secretary of Housing and Urban Development during his second term.

Center is relative.

The overall economic trend on both sides of the aisle was towards the right from the late 70s onwards and this trend held across countries. Deregulation, deficit reduction, free trade, privatization, tax reduction, and tighter monetary policy were an international norm.
Bush would probably be more deficit-minded though, meaning that if there is 1986 tax reform it won't involve as steep tax cuts and would focus more on tax code simplification.


I'm not sure what GOP social policy would be.

On Abortion, HW's 1980 views before joining the ticket were... (1)Opposed to abortion, but opposed to a constitutional ban of abortion; (2)Opposed to federal funding for abortion; (3)Supported the right to an abortion in cases of rape, incest, or threat to the life of the mother. Barbara Bush was pro-choice, but kept quiet about it.
On AIDS HW signed the Ryan White CARE Act (federal AIDS/HIV funding) and the Americans with Disabilities Act (which protected people with HIV), but he didn't do much on top of that.
HW Bush was a drug warrior. This also rippled over into HIV/AIDS Policy (opposing needle exchanges and whatnot).
HW was for taking some action on climate change in the early 90s. Cap and Trade was under him IIRC.
HW and Reagan were both fairly liberal on immigration.


Most of the shift right on social policy since the 80s seems to have been bottom up.


I wonder if Laxalt is nominee in 1992. He'd be 70 years old.
 
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