Dole would have to beat two-term Vice President Dan Quayle, who is in touch with the evangelical base. Clinton would be the failure by that point and still-Governor Cuomo can take his rightful throne.![]()
I have my doubts Cuomo would even run. He passed up golden opportunities in both '88 and '92, and he was famously indecisive and conflicted about national politics. My guess is he again hems and haws but doesn't run.
Anyway, if Clinton loses in '92, then (aside from the possibility of Cuomo) the '96 field likely includes Gore, Bill Bradley, Dick Gephardt, maybe Jim Florio (early '90s governor of NJ — OTL lost reelection in '93, but might win absent a backlash to Clinton), maybe Bob Kerrey (though his disastrous '92 bid might rob him of support).
An alt-94 (absent a Republican Revolution) might also have knock-on effects on who gets elected. Kathleen Brown (brother of Jerry, daughter of Pat) might win her '94 California gubernatorial bid, making her a serious VP prospect. You'll have a bunch of other promising Democrats who lost bids in '94 in the national mix (Dave McCurdy, Sam Coppersmith, Bob Carr).
On the GOP side, Dole and Quayle would probably make bids. But so might Jack Kemp or Jim Baker (who might have inside tracks over Dole).