George Duke of Clarence is not executed in 1478 and survives to 1483?

glore7 · May 24, 2018

What if Edward IV doesn't execute George Duke of Clarence in 1478 and he survives until 1483?

I assume Edward IV still names Richard the Lord Regent as he wouldn't trust Clarence. However Clarence with the Neville inheritance is the most powerful noble in the realm and would probably do what Richard did in the OTL. Usurp the throne, declare his nephews illegitimate, imprison them and crown himself George 1st of England.

However what do you think happens after that?

In my opinion it all depends on whether Richard stays loyal to Clarence, if he does Clarence has a good chance of keeping the throne from Henry Tudor, if he doesn't the Yorkist cause is probably doomed.

I assume Clarence would fair better in this scenario than Richard as Clarence was only usurping his two younger nephews where as Richard was usurping another legitimate nephew. Clarence also has an heir that would remain alive, while Richard's heir died in 1484 further putting his position in doubt.

What do you guys think?

JonasResende · May 24, 2018

Weren't Richard and George sort of generally at odds with one another after Dickon's marriage to Anne Neville? Richard usually took Edward IV's side (or perhaps it was the other way around), so Dickon might serve as his Edwardian nephews' champion in this case, to stand up for them against "mean Uncle George". The thing is, Clarence being alive keeps Richard in check. I'm not saying the Kingmaker's inheritance was split right down the middle, but both were powerful enough to check the other. It was only that Richard got part of Clarence's share due to Clarence's treason and acted as guardian for the other part due to Clarence's son being a minor, that eventually tipped the balance in Dickon's favour IMO.

UCB79 · May 24, 2018

Or maybe instead Richard, not trusting Clarence one bit, finds a way to execute him(along with Hastings). Events then pro-
cede as they did IOTL.

glore7 · May 24, 2018

JonasResende said:
Weren't Richard and George sort of generally at odds with one another after Dickon's marriage to Anne Neville? Richard usually took Edward IV's side (or perhaps it was the other way around), so Dickon might serve as his Edwardian nephews' champion in this case, to stand up for them against "mean Uncle George". The thing is, Clarence being alive keeps Richard in check. I'm not saying the Kingmaker's inheritance was split right down the middle, but both were powerful enough to check the other. It was only that Richard got part of Clarence's share due to Clarence's treason and acted as guardian for the other part due to Clarence's son being a minor, that eventually tipped the balance in Dickon's favour IMO.

Yes, I don't think Clarence would last long if her tried to usurp the throne considering he and Richard didn't seem to have the best relationship.

However if Richard took Clarences side that's a whole other story, like I said above.

glore7 · May 24, 2018

UCB79 said:
Or maybe instead Richard, not trusting Clarence one bit, finds a way to execute him(along with Hastings). Events then pro-
cede as they did IOTL.

How would Richard be able to execute Clarence. I know Clarence wasn't the most popular, but he is the elder brother of Richard and probably more powerful than Richard.

UCB79 · May 24, 2018

glore7 said:
How would Richard be able to execute Clarence. I know Clarence wasn't the most popular, but he is the elder brother of Richard and probably more powerful than Richard.

The same way he did Hastings- brute force
(that is, he'd act too quickly for Clarence to
stop him, find some excuse, & have @ his
back the Northernors who helped him seize
the throne IOTL).

glore7 · May 24, 2018

UCB79 said:
The same way he did Hastings- brute force
(that is, he'd act too quickly for Clarence to
stop him, find some excuse, & have @ his
back the Northernors who helped him seize
the throne IOTL).

Yes but Clarence is far more powerful than Hastings, controls more of the Neville estates, and being the Duke of Clarence probably has a ton of support irn Ireland. Clarence would also probably be wary of Richard in this scenario. I don't see how Richard could execute Clarence.

Tyler96 · May 25, 2018

The thing about George usurping the throne is that he's been open about his antipathy to the Woodvilles and they are going to be wary of him- Rivers probably isn't go to casually meet up with George and then sit down for dinner and easily get arrested, which means Edward V isn't go to fall into George's custody. Given the location of his holdings George also mightn't be in any position to intercept Edward V before he's (Edward V) safely ensconced in the Tower.

So, George can try to claim the throne, but if he hasn't got his hands on his nephews (and consequently can't quietly kill them) then it'll be a whole lot messier than IOTL, and I'm not sure George has the military strength or the political nous to pull it off.

I'm also inclined to think Richard and the Woodvilles can form some sort of working relationship here- the Woodville's will see George as the bigger threat because of his well-known dislike of them, and Richard has his own problems with George (regarding the Neville inheritance and the fact that Richard will think George is trying to steal his position as Lord Protector).

Richard is also less likely to buy the precontract story if it's coming from George (it's awfully convenient for George to have this info), and you could argue that Richard only 'believed' the precontract IOTL because it gave him a claim to the throne.

Buckingham would probably throw in with George though, seeing him as the best bet for advancement and the removal of the Woodvilles, but given how badly Bucky's revolt fizzled IOTL I'm not too sure how much he would add to George's cause.

So, most likely scenario for me is:

Edward IV dies.
Woodvilles shepherd Edward V carefully to London, and with the threat of George on the horizon probably refrain from alienating Richard.
George does something stupid (i.e. bleating about how Edward V is totally a bastard because of the precontract, or even the whole "Edward IV was a bastard fathered by an archer named Blaybourne") with Bucky either actively whispering in his ear or otherwise along for the ride.
George and Bucky end up dead, possibly having tried to raise some sort of military rebellion. Alternatively, they could try and skedaddle overseas.
With George dead, any working relationship between Richard and the Woodvilles possibly starts to break down. Maybe (depending on how you read his motives) Richard decides that the precontract story doesn't seem so preposterous now that it might give him the throne.
Henry Tudor sits in Brittany twiddling his thumbs (it took a very specific sequence of events to get him to the throne IOTL).

If you could get Richard and George to work together (presumably with the Woodvilles doing something that pisses Richard off to the extent that he can overlook his brotherly problems) then maybe George's tilt at the throne has a better chance at success.

glore7 · May 25, 2018

Tyler96 said:
The thing about George usurping the throne is that he's been open about his antipathy to the Woodvilles and they are going to be wary of him- Rivers probably isn't go to casually meet up with George and then sit down for dinner and easily get arrested, which means Edward V isn't go to fall into George's custody. Given the location of his holdings George also mightn't be in any position to intercept Edward V before he's (Edward V) safely ensconced in the Tower.

So, George can try to claim the throne, but if he hasn't got his hands on his nephews (and consequently can't quietly kill them) then it'll be a whole lot messier than IOTL, and I'm not sure George has the military strength or the political nous to pull it off.

I'm also inclined to think Richard and the Woodvilles can form some sort of working relationship here- the Woodville's will see George as the bigger threat because of his well-known dislike of them, and Richard has his own problems with George (regarding the Neville inheritance and the fact that Richard will think George is trying to steal his position as Lord Protector).

Richard is also less likely to buy the precontract story if it's coming from George (it's awfully convenient for George to have this info), and you could argue that Richard only 'believed' the precontract IOTL because it gave him a claim to the throne.

Buckingham would probably throw in with George though, seeing him as the best bet for advancement and the removal of the Woodvilles, but given how badly Bucky's revolt fizzled IOTL I'm not too sure how much he would add to George's cause.

So, most likely scenario for me is:

Edward IV dies.

Woodvilles shepherd Edward V carefully to London, and with the threat of George on the horizon probably refrain from alienating Richard.

George does something stupid (i.e. bleating about how Edward V is totally a bastard because of the precontract, or even the whole "Edward IV was a bastard fathered by an archer named Blaybourne") with Bucky either actively whispering in his ear or otherwise along for the ride.

George and Bucky end up dead, possibly having tried to raise some sort of military rebellion. Alternatively, they could try and skedaddle overseas.

With George dead, any working relationship between Richard and the Woodvilles possibly starts to break down. Maybe (depending on how you read his motives) Richard decides that the precontract story doesn't seem so preposterous now that it might give him the throne.

Henry Tudor sits in Brittany twiddling his thumbs (it took a very specific sequence of events to get him to the throne IOTL).

If you could get Richard and George to work together (presumably with the Woodvilles doing something that pisses Richard off to the extent that he can overlook his brotherly problems) then maybe George's tilt at the throne has a better chance at success.

I think the whole thing of whether George is successful comes down to Whether Richard allies with George or the Woodvilles. If he allies with George, like you said I think its pretty certain George is crowned King and Edward V is deposed. I personally think this is likely to happen as while Richard wasn't the biggest fan of George, he quite clearly hated the Woodvilles with a passion. I also think if George, Buckingham and Richard are all on the same side that severly reduces Henry Tudor's chances of taking the throne.

If Clarence goes against Richard, then I expect George will probably fail.

Kellan Sullivan · May 25, 2018

glore7 said:
I think the whole thing of whether George is successful comes down to Whether Richard allies with George or the Woodvilles. If he allies with George, like you said I think its pretty certain George is crowned King and Edward V is deposed. I personally think this is likely to happen as while Richard wasn't the biggest fan of George, he quite clearly hated the Woodvilles with a passion. I also think if George, Buckingham and Richard are all on the same side that severly reduces Henry Tudor's chances of taking the throne.

If Clarence goes against Richard, then I expect George will probably fail.

Where do we see that Richard hated the Wydevilles with a passion? He largely left them alone during his brief reign (sure Antony, Earl Rivers and Sir Richard Grey didn't fare too well, but they were ACTUAL threats to Richard's control of Edward V - Rivers was EV's proxy father figure and Grey his half-brother, which means they were gonna have a hold over the king if they stayed alive. It was only once Dickon executed them that he realized he wasn't going to be able to control Edward V like he'd thought). Hell Bucky was MARRIED to a Wydeville and he atill threw in with Dickon

And also, while Dickon comes across as a Macchiavellian type schemer (I don't think he was, and in mid-late 15e century England torn apart by the Cousins' War I'd hardly say that it was necessarily a bad thing. Let me be clear, I like Richard as duke of Gloucester-Loyalty binds me-Dickon, not usurper, darker Richard III), Clarence strikes me as filling the description of a witless fool. George strikes me as a character similar Gaston d'Orléans, ready to promise anything to those who will support him, and ready to promise twice that to save his own hide. (A man of glass was how Richelieu described Gaston). In terms of politicking, Richard would run circles around him in deviousness.

Tyler96 · May 25, 2018

Kellan Sullivan said:
Where do we see that Richard hated the Wydevilles with a passion? He largely left them alone during his brief reign (sure Antony, Earl Rivers and Sir Richard Grey didn't fare too well, but they were ACTUAL threats to Richard's control of Edward V - Rivers was EV's proxy father figure and Grey his half-brother, which means they were gonna have a hold over the king if they stayed alive. It was only once Dickon executed them that he realized he wasn't going to be able to control Edward V like he'd thought). Hell Bucky was MARRIED to a Wydeville and he atill threw in with Dickon

There was also no evidence of any deep-seated enmity between Richard and the Woodvilles during Edward IV's reign (though you could rationalise that as Richard being smart enough to keep his mouth shut, unlike Clarence). IMO you can probably explain Richard's actions in 1483 as reactive or opportunistic, without needing to invoke some bad blood between Richard and the Woodvilles or depicting Richard as some power hungry evil uncle who was always aiming at nabbing his nephews throne.

That's why I think that in 1483 if the Woodvilles are playing nice (i.e. Richard doesn't fear that they're going to lock him out of power and influence the young king against him) and/or Richard sees George as a greater threat to his position then you could possibly see some form of working relationship between Richard and the Woodvilles, even if only temporarily.

What Hastings is doing might also effect things- is it possible that with the threat of Clarence floating about that he can swallow his distaste for the Woodvilles and refrain from scheming with Richard III (...which might also have beneficial effects on Richard's relationship with the Woodvilles)? I can't see Hastings going to Clarence- Hastings was loyal to Edward IV and his legacy, I can't see him trusting or having a high opinion of the disloyal Clarence.

AngelQueen · May 25, 2018

In this case, I think it's quite possible that if George starts throwing claims of a precontract on Edward IV's part (or that he was a bastard son of an archer), and Richard sides with the Woodvilles against him (a definite possibility, I think, since George and Richard were often in conflict over the Neville inheritance, and possibly because Richard was the favorite brother and George suffered a severe case of Middle Child Syndrome), then George is quite possibly doomed to fail. However, regardless if George is killed or goes into exile, Richard and the Woodvilles will be bound to each other. Richard won't be able to go back on his opposition to the precontract claim without looking like a huge hypocrite and blatant opportunist. Even fewer people would back him than did in canon after he just fought against an insurrection based on that claim.

The Woodvilles would be smart enough to know that alienating Richard would be insanely stupid at that point. Though Richard wouldn't be able to retract his support of Edward V without looking like a traitor, he could still do them a huge amount of damage by virtue of being Lord Protector and leader of a good chunk of northern England. So they'd be smart to make nice with Richard, perhaps even offer up a marriage alliance provided Anne Neville and Edward of Middleham die on schedule (which they probably would, since all of these shenanigans wouldn't affect their biological destinies). Richard would be in need of a new wife to get a new heir, and Woodvilles tend to be a fertile lot. Richard might just come out pretty good by the end of his LPship, which says a lot considering the fate of previous LPs/regents for minor kings.

And I agree that there seems to have been little evidence of hostilities between Richard and the Woodvilles during Edward IV's lifetime. From what I've seen, stories of such hostilities stem from George's execution, which in this TL would not have happened. Richard may not have cared much for them (which seems to have been the general consensus among the nobility, since the Woodvilles were taking up practically all of the advantageous marriages and generally lording over everyone else), but there doesn't seem to have been any active anger between them (though,as @Tyler96 said, Richard seemed to have been smart enough to keep his mouth shut if he did actively dislike them).

So in the end, we'd have Edward V on the throne, his siblings to eventually be married off in advantageous alliances (or for the convent, as was the case of baby sister Bridget), the Woodvilles maintaining their influence but striving to work in concert with Richard and generally not pissing him off, and Richard being honored as the young King's loyal paternal uncle with a Woodville wife and (hopefully) several healthy Woodville-Plantagenet babies. It's possible that Henry Tudor might even be able to come back to England under a flag of truce and peace. I think I've read something about Margaret Beaufort being in negotiations with Edward IV to do just that, only he died before it could be finalized, and everything went to hell after he died, so she waited in case she had a chance to bring her son back as a King instead of a mere Earl. Once things settle down and Edward V is solidly placed on the throne, she might be able to resume the negotiations and get Henry back in as Earl of Richmond.