George Bush wins the 1980 Nomination

MrHola

Banned
What-if George H.W. Bush won the Republican Nomination in 1980? I assume that the Republicans still defeat Carter by a wide margin. For a Running Mate, how about Howard Baker from Tennessee? So, Bush/Baker wins the election and is inaugerated on 22 January, 1981.Now what?
 
It wouldn't be Baker, he was pretty happy being the Senate Minority Leader (and, with the 1980 elections) the Senate Majority Leader. He was willing to try for President, I doubt he'd accept VP.

Plus, of course, you need somebody for the base. Baker was a Dole/Ford style Midwest conservative crossed with a little liberal Republican blood (despite being from Tennessee) and although Bush was a little to the right of Ford conservatives didn't trust him.

Perhaps Kemp? He's new on the scene, but a supply-sider (sigh), conservative, from New York, and one of the very very few Republicans who ever tried to have good relations with the black community.

Given that Reagan's 1980 victory was very much an anti-Carter victory and given that voters were hesitant about how right-wing he appeared to be: Bush should have a pretty easy job winning, although Carter will do a little better in the South I think.


As for being President… I don't know if Bush faces down the air traffic controller unions (and that was a key point for European investors, who afterwards flooded money in) and he doesn't pass the Kemp-Roth tax-cut. On the other hand he will almost certainly cut taxes to some extent. Arguably he'll care more for the traditional balanced budget Republican stance so he may aim for that with program cuts and only gradually lowering taxes as he can.

Military spending is tricky. There's quite a bit of support for it but if he's trying to balance the budget…*tough. Probably he continues on Carter's path of a little above inflation spending instead of Reagan's a lot above inflation spending.

The US may have to cut or scale back some of the new weapon programs, and the various services will probably get equipment a little slower, a little less at a time.

Don't know what happens in Lebanon and I doubt Bush invades Grenada for propaganda effect.

As for the Cold War…*Reagan pissed off the entire conservative establishment by negotiating with the Soviets (I do believe they called him an appeaser, amusingly enough in present political context) and I doubt Bush has the backbone to follow Reagan's lead.

On the other hand the USSR was doomed, but it might be messier in the ATL.

1984 was Reagan's election (he had very limited coattails in Congress, unlike 1980) and it probably won't be Bush's. That said Mondale still loses to Bush; I think Gary Hart loses to Bush as well, but depending on how well the last four years have gone[1] he has a decent chance.

Reagan's second term in OTL only featured a couple major things—notably the 1986 Tax Reform / Cut—and of course had quite a bit of scandal.

I'm not sure how Bush's second term winds up, but immigration, the USSR, taxes, and so forth are issues to be considered (same if the Dems. win in 1984).

Post-Bush his VP will run—I know Jack Kemp, if he is the VP, wanted the Presidency—and although Bush doesn't have the boost that Reagan recovered just in time to help Bush the '88 campaign probably won't be the Lee Atwater "all negative, all the time" but it might be. Anyway it's a pretty even year, assuming good nominees for both parties and it could turn out to be any one of a whole bunch of people.


[1] IOTL there was a major recession of 1982-3 (or 81-82? I never remember) and things were looking pretty bad. Maybe it keeps looking bad, and that brings the Democrats back into power.
 
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