Geopolitics of a French military dictatorship

Say as a result of the Algerian war, France ends up as a military dictatorship in possession of Algeria.

How would a French military dictatorship effect the EU

Would it encourage the survival of dictatorships in Spain,Portugal, and Greece.

How would this impact Francafrique

Could such a dictatorship survive into the modern day
 
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Say as a result of the Algerian war, France ends up as a military dictatorship in possession of Algeria.

How would a French military dictatorship effect the EU

Would it encourage the survival of dictatorships in Spain,Portugal, and Greece.

How would this impact Francafrique

Could such a dictatorship survive into the modern day
It depends a lot on the circumstances and timing of such a dictatorship. If the coup is staged as a result of maybe De Gaulle being assassinated by left wing militants and the country slipping towards chaos, the rest of the West will be more amenable to it than if the military takes over as a result of fears over Algerian independence. But even if the former situation happens, the West will expect the military to hold elections of some kind and surrender power back to a civilian government.

I don't know enough about this period in France to say what could lead to the rest of Europe accepting the military being in charge, and it'd doubtlessly affect the development of the EU, more so the earlier it happens. One scenario I often go back to when dealing with France in this period is an Italy that stays neutral during WW2 and carves a stronger, Mediterranean oriented, third path for itself and the other Southern European states during the Cold War. If France under this hypothetical military dictatorship is friendly to Italy, the balance of power on the continent could swing definitively to this bloc. The US would keep its presence in Germany for obvious reasons, but the rest of Europe would be a lot more independent of Washington's influence, barring maybe the UK, who'd see the developments on the continent as a reason to develop relationships with the US and ANZAC countries.

France's role in Africa would probably be more extensive than OTL, maybe looking more like it does today, except decades early. Regimes friendly to French interests are more actively supported whereas OTL they were passively so. The Ivory Coast is an example that comes to mind. I don't recall many of the finer details, but French support, or the lack thereof, was critical in the power games at several points in the country. That factor would only be strengthened ITTL.

As for it lasting to the modern day, I don't see it. Short of the military reinstalling the monarchy and using the King to eventually mediate a sort of power handover while allowing the military to keep a lot of control a la Thailand, the dictatorship is on a timer as soon as it starts. But it would help the regimes in Spain and Portugal, and thus indirectly the events in those countries overseas territories. Instead of being paranoid about FDI as he was OTL, perhaps Salazar in Portugal would be more open to money coming from an ideologically friendly France.

Hopefully that covers all the bases, I realize I jumped around a lot.
 
But even if the former situation happens, the West will expect the military to hold elections of some kind and surrender power back to a civilian government.
Couldn't they just hold sham elections and keep holding said elections indefinitely as a way of legalizing themselves ?
 
Couldn't they just hold sham elections and keep holding said elections indefinitely as a way of legalizing themselves ?

Yeah, by this stage a military coup is likely to see itself more as a caretaker to hand over to the "right" sort of democratically elected government, not a permanent break with the Republic. And it's theoretically possible that we might get a barely disguised dictatorship as the military forms a close association with "their" politicians and do everything they can to rig the system in their favour and the politicians do everything they can to make the French military strong and glorious.

Could such a dictatorship survive into the modern day

I definitely think such a regime would have great difficulty surviving the end of the Cold War.

fasquardon
 
Couldn't they just hold sham elections and keep holding said elections indefinitely as a way of legalizing themselves ?
It's possible, and for the first election or two the military could actually win without the need for ballot stuffing depending on how the coup happened and dictatorship developed. But after a while the left wing in France is going to take to the streets, probably with some moderates who don't like the eventual corruption or something. If there's anything you can count on France for it's street protests and strikes. This wouldn't threaten the military internally, but the response will be under scrutiny from the West. Depending on how reliant France is on the more democratic states of Europe, it could seriously damage the regime. They could go full China and Tienanmen square, but that would go over very poorly abroad. But if they're not reliant on the US or UK for economic/strategic needs then all the criticism in the world won't stop the government. Ultimately, the fate of the dictatorship depends on what path they are actually capable of taking, and the choices they make.
 
I definitely think such a regime would have great difficulty surviving the end of the Cold War.
Any reason why ?

It's possible, and for the first election or two the military could actually win without the need for ballot stuffing depending on how the coup happened and dictatorship developed. But after a while the left wing in France is going to take to the streets, probably with some moderates who don't like the eventual corruption or something.
Any reason why given it's didn't happen in Spain or Portugal ?

Depending on how reliant France is on the more democratic states of Europe, it could seriously damage the regime. They could go full China and Tienanmen square, but that would go over very poorly abroad.
Would the US and other western nations do anything while the Soviets were around. they were indifferent in Iberia, Latin America, and Greece .
 
Any reason why ?


Any reason why given it's didn't happen in Spain or Portugal ?


Would the US and other western nations do anything while the Soviets were around. they were indifferent in Iberia, Latin America, and Greece .
Well the Estado Novo suffered its own coup in the form of the Carnation Revolution, which occurred in conjunction with leftists and anti-EN forces taking to the streets. I read something once about the CR which said that the Revolution could easily have been stopped, soldiers could and probably would have fired on the crowds, but no one gave them the order. There was just no will. But both Spain and Portugal were subject to a lot more pressure from the outside than could be exerted against a France, so the situation is different.

The US would probably level economic and political sanctions, as they did against Portugal, Spain, and South Africa. Especially the longer the dictatorship lasts. The end of the Cold War will remove a lot of the reasoning behind keeping any friendliness towards the various regimes, hence why I think surviving to the modern day is difficult.

To go back into that notion though, notice that Franco wanted the King to be to receive a right wing education, which didn't end up amounting to much given the events of OTL. France could try something like that, as I mentioned before, and just keep a tighter leash on the monarch going forward.
 
Any reason why ?

Because the end of the Cold War yanked the carpet out from under many of the military regimes in the world, especially the more developed ones. Losing a favoured enemy for conservative militarists or losing a supporter for the leftists, combined with the great powers of the world having less need to humour abrasive regimes led to a slew falling. That said, such a regime in France could easily end before the Cold War ends. I don't think that France - especially post Vichy France - is ideologically very hospitable to either rightist or leftist military regimes. So while there may be some chance that a regime would get started, I think it would be a short lived one (even "military-guarded democracy" would I think have difficulty lasting more than a decade) and that it would definitely have extreme difficulty in outlasting the Cold War. If nothing else, I imagine that such a long-lived regime would be using the super-power struggle in order to attract foreign alliances and to justify the state of paranoia it would take to appear necessary to the French people.

fasquardon
 
The French military of the time was a conscript army and would have struggled to get troops to actually use force against civilians in the streets. If anything the age group of conscripts was probably more to the left than the general population. Ending violence in the streets by non lethal force possibly, but they will not maintain a government that rejects democracy and free elections. After two years you are conscripting the opposition who have been the rioters/protestors.
 
Couldn't they use nationalism around Algeria as a way of maintaining power ?

No. The French metropole was very different politically from the voters in Algeria. And the rest of the empire (and the non-voters in Algeria) are even more politically different from the voters of Algeria. Algeria is a ticking time bomb for France, since only the Pied-Noirs had power in the area and what the Pied-Noirs wanted was near impossible. Humouring them comes at too high a cost for the other groups with power in the larger empire without some rather serious PoDs.

fasquardon
 
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