Geopolitical Outlook of European-aligned Russia

[DominusNovus]

This is somewhat inspired by this thread I posted a short while back:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-geopolitical-and-economic-effects-of-liberalized-russia.493652/

However, I have a slightly more focused question here, and I’d like to broaden the options for how it is approached, so I’m starting a new thread. As we know, Russian foreign policy has generally focused on one major factor above all else: keep as many miles west of Moscow friendly and preferably under their influence as possible, thus securing their core territory through defense in depth.

So, what if, through whatever means you find most plausible, this is achieved all the way to the Atlantic, to such a degree that Russian leaders can say “nyet, no worries there!”

Maybe a Soviet Union that has turned continental Europe communist. Perhaps a post-Soviet Russia (and other post-Soviet republics) that joins the EU and NATO. Or maybe some alternate/avoided WW1 results in a Russia very secure and a key member of a proto-EU. Not suggesting any one idea, just giving a few off the top of my head.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

Total destruction of the Central Powers that results in the dissolution of Germany and AH. Russian borders are at least the Oder and include Bohemia and Slovakia as a direct control or a puppet state under a Romanov. France annexes to the Rhine and the German remnant is deconstructed into component parts in a reborn CoR, with the rump 'Prussia' (Brandenburg + Pomerania) also ruled by a Romanov puppet. Concert of Powers like arrangement for Russia, France, Italy, GB, Romania, and the vastly expanded Serbian Empire. Associate status for Greece, the Iberians, and Scandinavians.

 

[DominusNovus]

Total destruction of the Central Powers that results in the dissolution of Germany and AH. Russian borders are at least the Oder and include Bohemia and Slovakia as a direct control or a puppet state under a Romanov. France annexes to the Rhine and the German remnant is deconstructed into component parts in a reborn CoR, with the rump 'Prussia' (Brandenburg + Pomerania) also ruled by a Romanov puppet. Concert of Powers like arrangement for Russia, France, Italy, GB, Romania, and the vastly expanded Serbian Empire. Associate status for Greece, the Iberians, and Scandinavians.

The question isn’t so much “how” as it is what changes about Russia - besides the borders.

 

[Antarctica99]

Doesn't this imply that Russia would be the pre-eminent global power? Especially in a scenario where the is no Soviet Union and WW2, and thus Russia's population is perhaps even larger and more productive?

I have a vague intuition that Russia and its ally France would be at odds with the British Empire and United States.

Because in this scenario, Russia has essentially secured political domination over Europe and is significantly more powerful and secure than in OTL. Russia will be able to easily throw its weight around in the Middle East and South Asia, and depending on what happens to the Ottoman empire, that region of the globe could become a major arena for competition between GB and Russia again.

Japan is likely aligned against Russia too.

I guess the result of this geopolitical exercise is that the situation is a lot like OTL post 1945, but with Russia being a far more serious contender, since, allied with France, domination of mainland Europe is ensured. You could actually look at it as the inverse of the present geopolitical situation; instead of Russia confined to its little corner, boxed in by NATO, but actively challenging the west in Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, etc., Britain and the US are now locked out of Europe and placed on the strategic defensive.

China is a big wildcard in this no communism, no WW2, strong Russia scenario.

 

[Antarctica99]

If the Ottomans totally collapse, I can see Russia trying to pick up the fragments (by annexation or giving land to friendly allies). Obviously, controlling the straits of Marmara is advantageous, and I also think that Russia may try to annex something like the Lazistan ASSR. Russia will also continue to want to have Persia as a kind of client state.

The interesting thing here is that since the countries along the European Mediterranean coast are aligned with Russia, the British are now incredibly vulnerable there. Russia has Balkan orthodox friends, France is its ally, lets say Italy is too since the point is that Europe and Russia are aligned, now how do the British expect to defend their possessions in the Mediterranean like Cyprus or Malta in the event of a conflict? The Russians will probably want to dislodge them from Egypt and the Mediterranean entirely. I certainly would if I were them, that is the lifeline of the British empire and would only further isolate the UK from India, and the Russia/UK borderlands in South Asia of course would be a conflict zone (can anyone say Afghanistan?).

 

[DominusNovus]

Doesn't this imply that Russia would be the pre-eminent global power? Especially in a scenario where the is no Soviet Union and WW2, and thus Russia's population is perhaps even larger and more productive?

I have a vague intuition that Russia and its ally France would be at odds with the British Empire and United States.

Because in this scenario, Russia has essentially secured political domination over Europe and is significantly more powerful and secure than in OTL. Russia will be able to easily throw its weight around in the Middle East and South Asia, and depending on what happens to the Ottoman empire, that region of the globe could become a major arena for competition between GB and Russia again.

Japan is likely aligned against Russia too.

I guess the result of this geopolitical exercise is that the situation is a lot like OTL post 1945, but with Russia being a far more serious contender, since, allied with France, domination of mainland Europe is ensured. You could actually look at it as the inverse of the present geopolitical situation; instead of Russia confined to its little corner, boxed in by NATO, but actively challenging the west in Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, etc., Britain and the US are now locked out of Europe and placed on the strategic defensive.

China is a big wildcard in this no communism, no WW2, strong Russia scenario.

If the Ottomans totally collapse, I can see Russia trying to pick up the fragments (by annexation or giving land to friendly allies). Obviously, controlling the straits of Marmara is advantageous, and I also think that Russia may try to annex something like the Lazistan ASSR. Russia will also continue to want to have Persia as a kind of client state.

The interesting thing here is that since the countries along the European Mediterranean coast are aligned with Russia, the British are now incredibly vulnerable there. Russia has Balkan orthodox friends, France is its ally, lets say Italy is too since the point is that Europe and Russia are aligned, now how do the British expect to defend their possessions in the Mediterranean like Cyprus or Malta in the event of a conflict? The Russians will probably want to dislodge them from Egypt and the Mediterranean entirely. I certainly would if I were them, that is the lifeline of the British empire and would only further isolate the UK from India, and the Russia/UK borderlands in South Asia of course would be a conflict zone (can anyone say Afghanistan?).

I would imagine that the US and UK would be quite concerned about this Continental Europe-Russia alliance, as you say. I think the Mediterranean could prove to be a reasonable buffer between the British and Russian spheres of influence. Especially since a UK-US and possibly Japanese alliance would be a very formidable naval alliance. However, would that mean that this opposing alliance would have to be on the defensive? They very well could be on the offensive, just not in Europe.

 

[Antarctica99]

I would imagine that the US and UK would be quite concerned about this Continental Europe-Russia alliance, as you say. I think the Mediterranean could prove to be a reasonable buffer between the British and Russian spheres of influence. Especially since a UK-US and possibly Japanese alliance would be a very formidable naval alliance. However, would that mean that this opposing alliance would have to be on the defensive? They very well could be on the offensive, just not in Europe.

I never stated that they were generally on the defensive, just that per the obvious, as the Russians dominate Europe, they are on the defensive there, like Russia is right now with US troops in Estonia (Stalin rolling in his grave!).

Also, just because the UK-US-Japanese alliance begins with a naval advantage, it may not indefinitely retain this, nor does their naval capability really threaten Russia's "fortress Asia" that fundamentally. A key part of Russian FP would probably be trying to break off the US from the British, at least in the short term. America is, after all, in a very secure position geographically relative to Russia, maybe they can accommodate themselves to the rise of Russian power in some cases, selectively engaging in the power politics between Britain and Russia only when critical. They certainly have no ideological reasons to oppose Russia as they did OTL. Also Russia has all of Europe to defend it and significant productive ability. Creating a modern navy will be relatively high on their list, at least insofar as it serves their goal of checking the British. Their naval policy will be reactive, designed to counter any British ability to threaten Europe with its navy, as Russia has little need of a blue water navy for power projection like the OTL US, comparing their geographic positions.

Given time, it is a near certainty that Britain's power would decline compared to Russia and the US's, especially if Russia is able to keep up this strategic posture in the Mediterranean that severs the British empire in half. The fate of India is crucial here. Britain may take longer to fall if the damage of the world wars does not occur, or it may happen quicker due to the immense Russian pressure on it. Your guess is as good as mine to the winner of a great power conflict here, probably nothing as dramatic as WW2 I think, just because I don't see how one side could get the other to accept an unconditional peace.

 

[mial42]

I don't think this requires Soviet or Russian domination of Europe (both of which are quite difficult to achieve long-term, since Europe as a whole is much bigger then Russia). The easiest way to do it is probably for Russia, along with the other post-Soviet republics directly east of it, to successfully liberalize (which some of them did; like the Baltic states and much of the Eastern bloc) and join the EU (and maybe NATO, but that's not necessary). In that case, Russia would probably look like a giga-Poland, sending migrants to Western Europe and rapidly modernizing, albeit with some issues with democracy. In terms of foreign policy, it would probably focus mostly on Central Asia and the Caucasus, and much less on messing with Ukraine and Belorussia (who, in this scenario, would also be in the EU). I'd expect the closest comparison would be France; with a potent military and an independent nuclear deterrent willing and able to intervene in its traditional sphere of influence, but not likely to try for territorial annexations (since a Russia that did try for those wouldn't be permitted in the EU to begin with). Probably a much smaller military then OTL due to not having to worry about NATO or the western border, and falling under the EU's defensive umbrella, but still the largest military in the EU, surpassing France and GB, since there would still be massive land borders with CA and China to guard.