First off: Yes, this is insanely unlikely, as demonstrated here:
But lets just assume that some unlikely sequence of events takes place that results in Taiwan ending up as a part of Japan after the war. From that thread, I think the best bet is a US trusteeship, where the intention is to hold a plebiscite where the population will vote on their course of action. Everyone expects them to vote to rejoin China, but the CCP victory over the KMT is total enough in this version of events that that option is off the table (even if the population would want it, the US will lean on them very heavily to not do that). That leaves independence or rejoining Japan, and, by the time the plebiscite is being held, rejoining Japan is the more popular outcome (although, in this scenario, we could do something really crazy, like have them vote to be part of the US, just for fun, but thats for another thread).
So, something remotely in the same region as possible, like that, happens. What is the impact on global geopolitics in general, and regional geopolitics, in particular? One indirect (but huge) change is that there is no debate over who to recognize as China. There's only one China, even if the West does not like them, there's no dispute about who it is. At the same time, does the CCP maintain as adamantly that Taiwan is a core part of China, given that no entity that calls itself China has ruled there since the 19th century? Or it is something like the other lost territories of the Qing that the CCP might make some rumblings about being theirs, rightfully, but not so much that it is a geopolitical flashpoint?
Could Japan retain Taiwan with WWII going mostly the same?
what it says on the tin. I think Taiwan is Chinese after WWII due to Chiang kai-shek. would a worse ROC performance in the Chinese Civil War let Japan retain Taiwan? what other possibilities would let Japan retain Taiwan?
www.alternatehistory.com
So, something remotely in the same region as possible, like that, happens. What is the impact on global geopolitics in general, and regional geopolitics, in particular? One indirect (but huge) change is that there is no debate over who to recognize as China. There's only one China, even if the West does not like them, there's no dispute about who it is. At the same time, does the CCP maintain as adamantly that Taiwan is a core part of China, given that no entity that calls itself China has ruled there since the 19th century? Or it is something like the other lost territories of the Qing that the CCP might make some rumblings about being theirs, rightfully, but not so much that it is a geopolitical flashpoint?