Geopolitical Consequences of Japanese Taiwan post-WW2

First off: Yes, this is insanely unlikely, as demonstrated here:
But lets just assume that some unlikely sequence of events takes place that results in Taiwan ending up as a part of Japan after the war. From that thread, I think the best bet is a US trusteeship, where the intention is to hold a plebiscite where the population will vote on their course of action. Everyone expects them to vote to rejoin China, but the CCP victory over the KMT is total enough in this version of events that that option is off the table (even if the population would want it, the US will lean on them very heavily to not do that). That leaves independence or rejoining Japan, and, by the time the plebiscite is being held, rejoining Japan is the more popular outcome (although, in this scenario, we could do something really crazy, like have them vote to be part of the US, just for fun, but thats for another thread).

So, something remotely in the same region as possible, like that, happens. What is the impact on global geopolitics in general, and regional geopolitics, in particular? One indirect (but huge) change is that there is no debate over who to recognize as China. There's only one China, even if the West does not like them, there's no dispute about who it is. At the same time, does the CCP maintain as adamantly that Taiwan is a core part of China, given that no entity that calls itself China has ruled there since the 19th century? Or it is something like the other lost territories of the Qing that the CCP might make some rumblings about being theirs, rightfully, but not so much that it is a geopolitical flashpoint?
 
When is this supposed referendum taking place? By the time the USA would allow post-Imperial Japan to claim additional territory, Taiwan's connection to Japan would be too far past for an integration referendum to succeed. I think this belongs in ASB.
 
Very difficult to see this happening considering that China was an ally throughout WWII, participated in several of the major Allied conferences, and Roosevelt was insistent on elevating China to Great Power status. Then there was a 4 year gap between the surrender of Japan in 1945 and the Communist takeover of China in 1949. This is almost ASB or needs a very different China or WWII.
 
When is this supposed referendum taking place? By the time the USA would allow post-Imperial Japan to claim additional territory, Taiwan's connection to Japan would be too far past for an integration referendum to succeed. I think this belongs in ASB.
Very difficult to see this happening considering that China was an ally throughout WWII, participated in several of the major Allied conferences, and Roosevelt was insistent on elevating China to Great Power status. Then there was a 4 year gap between the surrender of Japan in 1945 and the Communist takeover of China in 1949. This is almost ASB or needs a very different China or WWII.

Thats not what ASB means.
 
First off: Yes, this is insanely unlikely, as demonstrated here:
But lets just assume that some unlikely sequence of events takes place that results in Taiwan ending up as a part of Japan after the war. From that thread, I think the best bet is a US trusteeship, where the intention is to hold a plebiscite where the population will vote on their course of action. Everyone expects them to vote to rejoin China, but the CCP victory over the KMT is total enough in this version of events that that option is off the table (even if the population would want it, the US will lean on them very heavily to not do that). That leaves independence or rejoining Japan, and, by the time the plebiscite is being held, rejoining Japan is the more popular outcome (although, in this scenario, we could do something really crazy, like have them vote to be part of the US, just for fun, but thats for another thread).

So, something remotely in the same region as possible, like that, happens. What is the impact on global geopolitics in general, and regional geopolitics, in particular? One indirect (but huge) change is that there is no debate over who to recognize as China. There's only one China, even if the West does not like them, there's no dispute about who it is. At the same time, does the CCP maintain as adamantly that Taiwan is a core part of China, given that no entity that calls itself China has ruled there since the 19th century? Or it is something like the other lost territories of the Qing that the CCP might make some rumblings about being theirs, rightfully, but not so much that it is a geopolitical flashpoint?
The US won't allow it, it's frankly about possible as the US creating and recognizing a Polish Government in Exile, and then encouraging said exile government to agitate for the Kresy (and then encourage Bonn to agitate for Silesia and East Prussia in the bargain).

The reasons being that the US will never allow Japan to hold Taiwan again, so the Japanese can't go for a Round 2 against Southeast Asia.
 
The US won't allow it, it's frankly about possible as the US creating and recognizing a Polish Government in Exile, and then encouraging said exile government to agitate for the Kresy (and then encourage Bonn to agitate for Silesia and East Prussia in the bargain).

The reasons being that the US will never allow Japan to hold Taiwan again, so the Japanese can't go for a Round 2 against Southeast Asia.

In this scenario, the alternative is to hand over Taiwan to the CCP, at the height of the Cold War.
 
When is this supposed referendum taking place? By the time the USA would allow post-Imperial Japan to claim additional territory, Taiwan's connection to Japan would be too far past for an integration referendum to succeed. I think this belongs in ASB.
Very difficult to see this happening considering that China was an ally throughout WWII, participated in several of the major Allied conferences, and Roosevelt was insistent on elevating China to Great Power status. Then there was a 4 year gap between the surrender of Japan in 1945 and the Communist takeover of China in 1949. This is almost ASB or needs a very different China or WWII.
The US won't allow it, it's frankly about possible as the US creating and recognizing a Polish Government in Exile, and then encouraging said exile government to agitate for the Kresy (and then encourage Bonn to agitate for Silesia and East Prussia in the bargain).

The reasons being that the US will never allow Japan to hold Taiwan again, so the Japanese can't go for a Round 2 against Southeast Asia.
Actually, George Marshall in his diary was considering to let Japan keep Taiwan if it means an end to the war
 
In this scenario, the alternative is to hand over Taiwan to the CCP, at the height of the Cold War.
Actually, George Marshall in his diary was considering to let Japan keep Taiwan if it means an end to the war
Allowing Japan to maintain a permanent colony is unacceptable in the post-war climate. A best you could see the trustee route with Japan ruling Taiwan for a couple years before the Island gets independence ala Italy and Somalia.
 
Allowing Japan to maintain a permanent colony is unacceptable in the post-war climate. A best you could see the trustee route with Japan ruling Taiwan for a couple years before the Island gets independence ala Italy and Somalia.

That might be viable, with the result being the formation of a pro-Japanese Taiwanese republic.
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One big problem with the idea of a Japanese Taiwan is that Taiwan is separated from the Home Islands by the Ryukyus. Unless something happens to their status, I am not sure how the Japanese state could exercise control.

Failing that, if you somehow did get a ASB at work—if you had everyone agree that, despite the history, Taiwan and its people were Japanese by right—then you would have a fifth major island under Japanese rule, one tropical and remote and with a population largely not ethnically Japanese. The island may well boom, though I wonder if Japanese regional policy will be flexible enough to allow these atypical island to thrive as it did OTL. There will probably be a large migration of Taiwanese to the Home Islands during the boom, to fill labour shortages; that did not occur OTL only because of Japanese-KMT issues.

Beyond this, this larger Japan will adjoin directly on China and Southeast Asia. This will be bound to complicate things, including Sino-Japanese relations.
 
My first wife was from Taiwan. She told me that her relatives propsered under the Japanese and suffered under the Chinese. She left me with the impression that there was a lot of support for the Japanese to stay.
 
KMT China and the Philippines will feel betrayed because the US didnt go and dismember Japan and will demand huge reparations from Japan instead of turning their demand down due to US pressure
 
No, the US would just hold Taiwan under some sort of trusteeship, with some figureheads of medium level KMT and other non-CCP Chinese political exiles for show.

Then we posit that the people of Taiwan make it clearly known that they wish to be under Japanese governance, until such time that the US agrees. The point is: it happens.

KMT China and the Philippines will feel betrayed because the US didnt go and dismember Japan and will demand huge reparations from Japan instead of turning their demand down due to US pressure

This scenario posits the KMT does not flee to Taiwan and is crushed on the Mainland. It also posits Japan losing Taiwan, but getting it back afterward.
 
My first wife was from Taiwan. She told me that her relatives propsered under the Japanese and suffered under the Chinese. She left me with the impression that there was a lot of support for the Japanese to stay.
that's actually a routine sentiment found in Taiwan after the dictatorial years of Chiang that made the Taiwanese look at the Japanese era as the sentimental 'good old days' when in fact Taiwan had been brutally browbeat into submission 1900 - 1928 and in 1945, the entire island was on the verge of total rebellion against Japan. Japanese Taiwan: Colonial Rule and Its Contested Legacy goes into full detail, but apparently 300,000 to 400,000 fighters had been commissioned by Taiwanese rebels and the Chinese in Taiwan and the rebellion was meant to start literally just 19 days after Japan surrendered irl.
Chiang's dictatorial era, unfortunately, rehabilitated the Japanese from their actual brutal rule to 'the good old days'.
 
that's actually a routine sentiment found in Taiwan after the dictatorial years of Chiang that made the Taiwanese look at the Japanese era as the sentimental 'good old days' when in fact Taiwan had been brutally browbeat into submission 1900 - 1928 and in 1945, the entire island was on the verge of total rebellion against Japan. Japanese Taiwan: Colonial Rule and Its Contested Legacy goes into full detail, but apparently 300,000 to 400,000 fighters had been commissioned by Taiwanese rebels and the Chinese in Taiwan and the rebellion was meant to start literally just 19 days after Japan surrendered irl.
Chiang's dictatorial era, unfortunately, rehabilitated the Japanese from their actual brutal rule to 'the good old days'.
Yea, that's pretty much how it went. It's a bit hard to keep in mind that pro-Japanese Taiwanese like Lee Teng-Hui were outliers during Japanese rule, and the Han population was, by and large, favourable to returning to Chinese rule. The Austronesian natives were probably the more notable pro-Japanese segment, and that was after Japan brutalized their fathers for their resistance to their rule. It wasn't the horrific state of occupation experienced on the mainland, but it wasn't exactly peaceful either, with attempts at assimilation finally ramping up by WWII.

In the end, it was a case of 'reality is a cruel mistress' after the ROC regained and was exiled to Taiwan, when Chiang initiated his White Terror and thoroughly soured Taiwanese opinions on Chinese rule.
 
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Then we posit that the people of Taiwan make it clearly known that they wish to be under Japanese governance, until such time that the US agrees. The point is: it happens.
Japan won't want Taiwan due to the nightmare of integrating millions of Chinese along with the poverty of the Island and as Sārthākā noted Taiwanese were opposed to Japanese rule. So how does the Island end up under Japanese rule if neither Japan or Taiwan want it to.
 
KMT China and the Philippines will feel betrayed because the US didnt go and dismember Japan and will demand huge reparations from Japan instead of turning their demand down due to US pressure
Kind of like how Ethiopia felt betrayed about Somalia remaining an Italian colony until 1960? In the age of colonialism, Great Powers could honestly care less about the opinions of lesser powers
 
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