Geo-Political status of an ATL 1960 Imperial Japan

What kind of Geo-Political situation would a surviving Imperial Japan be facing or working within without an OTL entrance into the second World War. In other words, a scenario without a December 7th attack nor entry into Russia before an end to hostilities in Europe. Thus for this scenario, Japan remains out of the conflict and the war in Europe proceeds likely along the lines of an eventually American (Western allies) entrance and similar meet up with Soviet forces to defeat Germany. So ignoring that conflict, and setting a post war in which Europe looks very OTL 1945ish but Japan hedged her bets and remained out. Jumping ahead into this 'Cold War' to around 1960, how would a surviving Japan have looked and changed things?

Initial thoughts revolve around China. Would trade restrictions from the United States have forced changes? Would the Soviets suddenly be more receptive to even indirect partnership with Japan versus American strength?

How would atomic policy play out if perhaps Europe's war ended before final development and use of American weapons? Would Japan be forced under the umbrella of Soviet direction until she developed her own?

Even if Japan was enticed or forced out of mainland China, would control of Manchuria, Korea, Formosa allow for Japan to be much more of an economic force? Would Indian independence have been influenced by, or following independence, might fall into the Japanese orbit?

A lot would depend on if the Cold War became a three power situation where Japan was able to retain or gain power enough to stand up to the USSR and US. Would a constant threat of 2 joining against 1 be a force for peace or usher in guaranteed war.
 
The Japanese would have to terminate their war in China because the US embargo meant they no longer had the resources to keep their war machine running. Yes they could feast themselves on European colonial possessions like the Dutch East Indies and Indochina but what happens when the Anglo-American alliance liberates Europe? They're going to want them back and you got yourself a Pacific War if they refuse to comply.

So basically your scenario is a peculiar one where Japan realizes it's a second rate power and accepts the humiliation of defeat in China. Very, very unlikely given the Imperial Japanese mentality that led them to attack Pearl Harbor in the first place.
 
The Japanese would have to terminate their war in China because the US embargo meant they no longer had the resources to keep their war machine running. Yes they could feast themselves on European colonial possessions like the Dutch East Indies and Indochina but what happens when the Anglo-American alliance liberates Europe? They're going to want them back and you got yourself a Pacific War if they refuse to comply.

So basically your scenario is a peculiar one where Japan realizes it's a second rate power and accepts the humiliation of defeat in China. Very, very unlikely given the Imperial Japanese mentality that led them to attack Pearl Harbor in the first place.

Except the "December 7th Attacks" also includes their assault on British possession, not just Pearl. So neither the Americans or English have quite the justification that would allow them to pursue a hard line policy on a Japan for the sake of Saigon (especially after the bloody and expensive campaign in Europe and the Big Red Blob casting its shadow over the continent). I'd argue they are more likely to die a slow, grinding death in China as the Japanese are forced to wind down their air and mechanized activity as fuel and funds run low and they get sucked into the logistical nightmare of mainland China. Expect increasingly desperate measures and cruelty as they try to crush dissent and squeeze resources out of the territory they control; ultimately resulting in a much bigger pile of Chinese bodies.

Many, I imagine, being the result of biological warfare
 
Hmmmmm, my wordy intro might have been more confusing than I thought. In the scenario I'm painting, there was no attack on Pearl Harbor, and more importantly no Japanese war at all during the defeat of Germany and European theatre events play out basically OTL except I guess perhaps a bit faster. I'm trying to paint a picture, or asking others to help paint a picture, of what the global geopolitical map is for an ATL 1960 in which Imperial Japan remains on the stage fully. American power, as well as likely Soviet power after victory in Europe is going to be running high so it is very unlikely that Japan strike anything militarily during this time. The question is boing to be how the Cold War is different with a strong Japan that could influence economics and politics of the era. The embargo could be a bargaining chip to keep Japan from siding more with the Soviets? Or say Japan draws back off China enough that the embargo is lifted but she would retain Manchuria, Formosa (Taiwan), and Korea .. in addition to her island chains. All of that would still enable a pretty sizeable and powerful player on the stage. Especially if you factor in how she could stage Chinese unrest for years, off a third option for Middle East, Indian, or other smaller countries that OTL sided with East or West factions. If we allow 15 years after the end of European fighting, just how much change could a strong Japan cause?
 
Hmmmmm, my wordy intro might have been more confusing than I thought. In the scenario I'm painting, there was no attack on Pearl Harbor, and more importantly no Japanese war at all during the defeat of Germany and European theatre events play out basically OTL except I guess perhaps a bit faster. I'm trying to paint a picture, or asking others to help paint a picture, of what the global geopolitical map is for an ATL 1960 in which Imperial Japan remains on the stage fully. American power, as well as likely Soviet power after victory in Europe is going to be running high so it is very unlikely that Japan strike anything militarily during this time. The question is boing to be how the Cold War is different with a strong Japan that could influence economics and politics of the era. The embargo could be a bargaining chip to keep Japan from siding more with the Soviets? Or say Japan draws back off China enough that the embargo is lifted but she would retain Manchuria, Formosa (Taiwan), and Korea .. in addition to her island chains. All of that would still enable a pretty sizeable and powerful player on the stage. Especially if you factor in how she could stage Chinese unrest for years, off a third option for Middle East, Indian, or other smaller countries that OTL sided with East or West factions. If we allow 15 years after the end of European fighting, just how much change could a strong Japan cause?

The problem here is that Japan kind of HAS to keep the pressure on/stage unrest in China on a more or less constant basis by the mid-30's if they want to keep the Nationalists from consolidating power and challanging the seizure of Manchuria at the very least, if not contesting Japan's regional economic-military dominance entirely. The Warlords are already on the back foot and the Communists are a non-entity, meaning any scenario in which Imperial Japan is to remain a sizeable and powerful player capable of projecting power is going to have to be one in which they've subdued China or, if we can move back the POD, one in which the Nationalists don't have the same degree of dominance in the civil conflict they'd already aquired IOTL. Formosa, Taiwan, and a tenative grip on Manchuria isen't enough to put Japan in league with nations much more than Italy... and unlike Italy there's a 400 pound gorilla next door who is actively hostile to her hegemony and utterly dwarfs her in raw potential.
 
The issue, of course, it that if Japan lightens up on China the Chinese will regroup and push against Japan.


Has Japan invaded Indochina here?

In Vietnam, Japan engaged in a winning hearts and minds campaign (in contrast to how the Japanese treated China) and I could see Indochina being part of a bloc of pro-Japanese states in East Asia.

Japan, Korea, Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan, Hainan, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and perhaps Thailand would be quite the bloc to balance against China.


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More likely than not, however, is that Japan gets bled out in its effort to control the Chinese mainland and is driven out of mainland Asia to just Japan and Taiwan. China will likely press into Korea just to seal the deal. Japan might retain Jeju though. It will have to expend efforts over time to keeping an unhappy population down.

I'm not sure how China could recapture Hainan however. It's one thing to spam endless bodies in a mainland conflict and it's another to fight against East Asia's biggest Navy.

The US was leaning towards an Independent Indochina towards the end of the war historically. Maybe the Japanese and Americans push for that, meaning Japan gets more markets for it's products.


Japan cooperated with the USSR historically with North Sakhalin/Karafuto oil exploration. I could see Japan developing a relationship with the USSR that's a mix of OTL East Germany and Finland and using the USSR as a big export market as the Cold War initiates. Japan will oppose China more than it'll worry about the USSR and the Japanese don't like the Americans very much either.
 
The problem here is that Japan kind of HAS to keep the pressure on/stage unrest in China on a more or less constant basis by the mid-30's if they want to keep the Nationalists from consolidating power and challanging the seizure of Manchuria at the very least, if not contesting Japan's regional economic-military dominance entirely. The Warlords are already on the back foot and the Communists are a non-entity, meaning any scenario in which Imperial Japan is to remain a sizeable and powerful player capable of projecting power is going to have to be one in which they've subdued China or, if we can move back the POD, one in which the Nationalists don't have the same degree of dominance in the civil conflict they'd already aquired IOTL. Formosa, Taiwan, and a tenative grip on Manchuria isen't enough to put Japan in league with nations much more than Italy... and unlike Italy there's a 400 pound gorilla next door who is actively hostile to her hegemony and utterly dwarfs her in raw potential.

Okay, that's the kind of information I'm building to find out what a 1960 version of a Japan that doesn't enter conflict with the USA or USSR before the end of the relatively OTL European war. It seems that you are saying Japan likely would be caught and stuck in China and I can see at least immediately during the post-war (European war mind you since Japan doesn't get involved ITTL) and into the later 1940's. If she remains in, American embargo bites and American naval power likely encircles her more tightly than pre-war strategy. But I believe one could argue that very soon after, politics and changes could open up options for Japan such as consolidating in Manchuria or Korea while keeping China in turmoil or supporting various factions. Ultimately the Soviets will do the same with the CCP and you could have a China with certain territories occupied by Japan and in complete unrest and undermined by other parties interests. Even in OTL the Nationalist bungled their way to CCP victory. If Japan just waits, China might not be the threat some might believe she would be if Japan pulls back or just tries to hold on to certain territories. In other words a paper China is still very possible IMHO. Also, Japan could very likely cause unrest and colonial insurrections in the Dutch and French colonies, ally itself with aid and military packages to a newly independent India attempting to create an Asian power block set apart from the East West developing Cold War.
 
The issue, of course, it that if Japan lightens up on China the Chinese will regroup and push against Japan.


Has Japan invaded Indochina here?

In Vietnam, Japan engaged in a winning hearts and minds campaign (in contrast to how the Japanese treated China) and I could see Indochina being part of a bloc of pro-Japanese states in East Asia.

Japan, Korea, Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Taiwan, Hainan, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and perhaps Thailand would be quite the bloc to balance against China.


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More likely than not, however, is that Japan gets bled out in its effort to control the Chinese mainland and is driven out of mainland Asia to just Japan and Taiwan. China will likely press into Korea just to seal the deal. Japan might retain Jeju though. It will have to expend efforts over time to keeping an unhappy population down.

I'm not sure how China could recapture Hainan however. It's one thing to spam endless bodies in a mainland conflict and it's another to fight against East Asia's biggest Navy.

The US was leaning towards an Independent Indochina towards the end of the war historically. Maybe the Japanese and Americans push for that, meaning Japan gets more markets for it's products.


Japan cooperated with the USSR historically with North Sakhalin/Karafuto oil exploration. I could see Japan developing a relationship with the USSR that's a mix of OTL East Germany and Finland and using the USSR as a big export market as the Cold War initiates. Japan will oppose China more than it'll worry about the USSR and the Japanese don't like the Americans very much either.

ITTL Japan has not invaded anyone, and sits out the war in Europe. As Europe focuses on the Soviets, and Americans have to worry about the Soviets and a still militant Japan, it seems Japan has various avenues for surviving and even becoming much more powerful over time. Americans attempted to prod the Nationalist to full control in OTL without a hostile Japanese and failed. I can't see how they lead China to a large unified threat to a still strong Japan when the Soviets and Americans eventually splitting support of what China party they back while Japan can consolidate power. Even in the event that some method of Chinese forces force Japan out of much or most of China, Japan seems like it could still retain Korea, Formosa, and the rest of her islands for a lot of economic and industrial gain over time. Her navy would ensure regional power over China in large degree, and if as you say some kind of Asian prosperity sphere is launched in which she 'leads' colonial independence movements from the French, Dutch, British processions then her influence and power only grows still. Americans give sovereignty to the Philippines in 1946, so by ATL 1960 its possible that corrupt leadership there even drops that country into some kind of Asian anti-Soviet, anti-Western bloc as well.

At worst, China is unified either under Nationalist or Communist leadership, and Japan feels the need to play off one side of the Cold War off the other and would leaned away from whichever side that controlled China and seemed the most antagonistic or dangerous. So the Soviets or Americans would have a lot to lose if they pushed the still powerful independent Japan into the cold war rivals camp entirely.
 
Okay, that's the kind of information I'm building to find out what a 1960 version of a Japan that doesn't enter conflict with the USA or USSR before the end of the relatively OTL European war. It seems that you are saying Japan likely would be caught and stuck in China and I can see at least immediately during the post-war (European war mind you since Japan doesn't get involved ITTL) and into the later 1940's. If she remains in, American embargo bites and American naval power likely encircles her more tightly than pre-war strategy. But I believe one could argue that very soon after, politics and changes could open up options for Japan such as consolidating in Manchuria or Korea while keeping China in turmoil or supporting various factions. Ultimately the Soviets will do the same with the CCP and you could have a China with certain territories occupied by Japan and in complete unrest and undermined by other parties interests. Even in OTL the Nationalist bungled their way to CCP victory. If Japan just waits, China might not be the threat some might believe she would be if Japan pulls back or just tries to hold on to certain territories. In other words a paper China is still very possible IMHO. Also, Japan could very likely cause unrest and colonial insurrections in the Dutch and French colonies, ally itself with aid and military packages to a newly independent India attempting to create an Asian power block set apart from the East West developing Cold War.

China wants Manchuria back, full stop, and is already highly hostile to Japan. Given the nation is the core of Japan's commercial projection potential and Manchuria and Korea (both highly vulnerable to a resurgent China) are their key sources of food and raw materials, even a China of only modest power is a mortal threat and drain on Japanese potential to the point she'll need all her focus just to hold onto what she has, much less intervene seriously in the rest of Asia. And if they do, you can fully expect the offended powers to start backing the powerful anti-Tokyo factions in China.
 
ITTL Japan has not invaded anyone, and sits out the war in Europe. As Europe focuses on the Soviets, and Americans have to worry about the Soviets and a still militant Japan, it seems Japan has various avenues for surviving and even becoming much more powerful over time. Americans attempted to prod the Nationalist to full control in OTL without a hostile Japanese and failed. I can't see how they lead China to a large unified threat to a still strong Japan when the Soviets and Americans eventually splitting support of what China party they back while Japan can consolidate power. Even in the event that some method of Chinese forces force Japan out of much or most of China, Japan seems like it could still retain Korea, Formosa, and the rest of her islands for a lot of economic and industrial gain over time. Her navy would ensure regional power over China in large degree, and if as you say some kind of Asian prosperity sphere is launched in which she 'leads' colonial independence movements from the French, Dutch, British processions then her influence and power only grows still. Americans give sovereignty to the Philippines in 1946, so by ATL 1960 its possible that corrupt leadership there even drops that country into some kind of Asian anti-Soviet, anti-Western bloc as well.

At worst, China is unified either under Nationalist or Communist leadership, and Japan feels the need to play off one side of the Cold War off the other and would leaned away from whichever side that controlled China and seemed the most antagonistic or dangerous. So the Soviets or Americans would have a lot to lose if they pushed the still powerful independent Japan into the cold war rivals camp entirely.
Removing the 2nd Sino-Japanese War removes the Communists as a factor, since it was the greater threat of the Japanese imperialists that kept the KMT from crushing the nascent Communist Party (Jiang Jieshi hated the Communists more than he did the Japanese, seeing them as the real long-term threat and would've kept going after them if not for the Xi'An incident) and allowed Mao to consolidate enough strength and popularity in the countryside to eventually take over China, plus the Communists then wouldn't gain control of ever-important Manchuria and its resources. Sans invasion, someone will unify China and the KMT were the ones in the best position before the 2nd SJ War. The KMT was not going to cede Manchuria to Japan in perpetuity so there is going to be conflict and, like Germany and Russia before WWI, the Chinese juggernaut would clearly eventually overtake Japan, at which point all of Japan's colonial holdings are at risk (Korean independence was backed by the KMT, who sheltered the Provisional Government of Korea for decades, Taiwan's security is only as secure as Japan's navy, so no poking any other country with even a mid-tier navy lest the Chinese get involved). And, as @FillyofDelphi noted, Japan supporting and funding independence movements in the rest of Asia means the European colonial empires are going to back China to limit Japanese influence, limiting Japan's days as a colonial empire itself.
China outmans and outresources Japan and would eventually outgun Japan as well, so long-term Japanese colonial rule is questionable at best. There would be a fight, that much is inevitable, and Japan can't win it (feels like what the German military was saying right before WWI).
 
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