NOTE: This idea went through several radical changes since I started the thread. If you want to see what I'm working on now, start reading from here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=5737389#post5737389
And the actual timeline begins here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=5750901#post5750901
So, I have a bunch of ideas for this timeline, which is the first I’ve ever attempted. I’m going for a pretty strong butterfly effect here, so none of the same people as OTL are born after the POD. Some events may happen very similarly in places not directly impacted by the POD, but as more time passes, they bear less relation to events in OTL. By about a century after the POD, specific events bear very little resemblance to those in OTL. In terms of where I want to end my TL, I want to end up with some sort of equivalent to OTL's 19th century, with industrialism, colonialism, and a much more interconnected world.
So, the POD is that Temujin (Genghis Khan) dies before he’s able to unite the Mongols. So probably some time around 1170-1200. Not sure what exact year I should use, though.
This brings a great deal of changes. Without a single unified empire controlling much of Central Asia, communication and trade between Europe and the Far East is much more difficult than in OTL. This will of course mean that ideas and inventions will travel less easily between the two regions, until circumstances change. Since the Black Death most likely ultimately came from the Far East, there would be no Plague as there was in OTL’s 14th century.
In Asia, China will still be divided into the Jin Dynasty and the Southern Song. The Khmer Empire would remain a major power in Southeast Asia. It might also be interesting to have Korea take over part of North China, but I’m not sure how. The Jin Dynasty might eventually break up or be taken over by steppe nomads, but I’d like the Song, or whatever ITL dynasty succeeds it, to continue on for a while in the South.
Less certain about what would happen in the Middle East. Too early to have the Ottoman Empire emerging, so I could have a continuation of the Byzantine Empire. The Sultanate of Kwarezm and the Ayyubid Sultanate look like they could be major regional powers as well. I am not familiar at all with this region at that time, so any further ideas would be greatly appreciated.
I’m not very familiar with Eastern Europe at this time period either, but it seems most likely that powers such as Hungary and Poland would remain much more powerful than in OTL. Again, any help on this would be appreciated.
The second major difference in this world is that the Norse manage to establish permanent settlements in the New World. What I’m thinking of doing is having some Norseman, probably from Greenland or Iceland (though having him be a Dane or Norwegian will allow the news to more quickly diffuse into the rest of Europe), having heard the tales of Leif Ericson and the colony of Vinland, and seeking glory for himself, gathers together a crew, and tries to find the land Leif discovered. He manages to create a permanent colony in the New World in around 1250, and other European nations follow suit, so by 1350, several European countries have a presence in the New World.
I haven’t thought much about effects this will have for the timeline, because it depends on a great many factors, but the thing I want to ask about is which countries do you think will be most likely to be first to establish colonies in the Americas in such a situation, how long it will take before they start doing so, and what might be the nature of their colonies?
Any thought on this, or further ideas, would be very much appreciated.