Genghis Khan Dies in 1213 ("Empires of the East")

[Velkas]

NOTE: This idea went through several radical changes since I started the thread. If you want to see what I'm working on now, start reading from here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=5737389#post5737389

And the actual timeline begins here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=5750901#post5750901


So, I have a bunch of ideas for this timeline, which is the first I’ve ever attempted. I’m going for a pretty strong butterfly effect here, so none of the same people as OTL are born after the POD. Some events may happen very similarly in places not directly impacted by the POD, but as more time passes, they bear less relation to events in OTL. By about a century after the POD, specific events bear very little resemblance to those in OTL. In terms of where I want to end my TL, I want to end up with some sort of equivalent to OTL's 19th century, with industrialism, colonialism, and a much more interconnected world.

So, the POD is that Temujin (Genghis Khan) dies before he’s able to unite the Mongols. So probably some time around 1170-1200. Not sure what exact year I should use, though.

This brings a great deal of changes. Without a single unified empire controlling much of Central Asia, communication and trade between Europe and the Far East is much more difficult than in OTL. This will of course mean that ideas and inventions will travel less easily between the two regions, until circumstances change. Since the Black Death most likely ultimately came from the Far East, there would be no Plague as there was in OTL’s 14th century.

In Asia, China will still be divided into the Jin Dynasty and the Southern Song. The Khmer Empire would remain a major power in Southeast Asia. It might also be interesting to have Korea take over part of North China, but I’m not sure how. The Jin Dynasty might eventually break up or be taken over by steppe nomads, but I’d like the Song, or whatever ITL dynasty succeeds it, to continue on for a while in the South.

Less certain about what would happen in the Middle East. Too early to have the Ottoman Empire emerging, so I could have a continuation of the Byzantine Empire. The Sultanate of Kwarezm and the Ayyubid Sultanate look like they could be major regional powers as well. I am not familiar at all with this region at that time, so any further ideas would be greatly appreciated.

I’m not very familiar with Eastern Europe at this time period either, but it seems most likely that powers such as Hungary and Poland would remain much more powerful than in OTL. Again, any help on this would be appreciated.

The second major difference in this world is that the Norse manage to establish permanent settlements in the New World. What I’m thinking of doing is having some Norseman, probably from Greenland or Iceland (though having him be a Dane or Norwegian will allow the news to more quickly diffuse into the rest of Europe), having heard the tales of Leif Ericson and the colony of Vinland, and seeking glory for himself, gathers together a crew, and tries to find the land Leif discovered. He manages to create a permanent colony in the New World in around 1250, and other European nations follow suit, so by 1350, several European countries have a presence in the New World.

I haven’t thought much about effects this will have for the timeline, because it depends on a great many factors, but the thing I want to ask about is which countries do you think will be most likely to be first to establish colonies in the Americas in such a situation, how long it will take before they start doing so, and what might be the nature of their colonies?

Any thought on this, or further ideas, would be very much appreciated.

 

[Elfwine]

So, I have a bunch of ideas for this timeline, which is the first I’ve ever attempted. I’m going for a pretty strong butterfly effect here, so none of the same people as OTL are born after the POD. Some events may happen very similarly in places not directly impacted by the POD, but as more time passes, they bear less relation to events in OTL. By about a century after the POD, specific events bear very little resemblance to those in OTL.

So, the POD is that Temujin (Genghis Khan) dies before he’s able to unite the Mongols. So probably some time around 1170-1200. Not sure what exact year I should use, though.

This brings a great deal of changes. Without a single unified empire controlling much of Central Asia, communication and trade between Europe and the Far East is much more difficult than in OTL. This will of course mean that ideas and inventions will travel less easily between the two regions, until circumstances change. Since the Black Death most likely ultimately came from the Far East, there would be no Plague as there was in OTL’s 14th century.

In Asia, China will still be divided into the Jin Dynasty and the Southern Song. The Khmer Empire would remain a major power in Southeast Asia. It might also be interesting to have Korea take over part of North China, but I’m not sure how. The Jin Dynasty might eventually break up or be taken over by steppe nomads, but I’d like the Song, or whatever ITL dynasty succeeds it, to continue on for a while in the South.

Less certain about what would happen in the Middle East. Too early to have the Ottoman Empire emerging, so I could have a continuation of the Byzantine Empire. The Sultanate of Kwarezm and the Ayyubid Sultanate look like they could be major regional powers as well. I am not familiar at all with this region at that time, so any further ideas would be greatly appreciated.

I’m not very familiar with Eastern Europe at this time period either, but it seems most likely that powers such as Hungary and Poland would remain much more powerful than in OTL. Again, any help on this would be appreciated.

The second major difference in this world is that the Norse manage to establish permanent settlements in the New World. What I’m thinking of doing is having some Norseman, probably from Greenland or Iceland (though having him be a Dane or Norwegian will allow the news to more quickly diffuse into the rest of Europe), having heard the tales of Leif Ericson and the colony of Vinland, and seeking glory for himself, gathers together a crew, and tries to find the land Leif discovered. He manages to create a permanent colony in the New World in around 1250, and other European nations follow suit, so by 1350, several European countries have a presence in the New World.

I haven’t thought much about effects this will have for the timeline, because it depends on a great many factors, but the thing I want to ask about is which countries do you think will be most likely to be first to establish colonies in the Americas in such a situation, how long it will take before they start doing so, and what might be the nature of their colonies?

Any thought on this, or further ideas, would be very much appreciated.

Some thoughts come to mind.

1) Have you read the Chaos timeline? That might be inspiring, even if you only use it as a "This is fascinating. I never thought of doing something with this area."

2) Um, what unified empire would that be? Because the Mongols sure as heck weren't in any meaningful sense.

3) You definitely could. The Seljuks are going to be stronger than OTL (all things being even), however, which is not good - although their civil war may be worse than OTL, the Byzantines might make it through the 13th century without being ready for being beaten up by the Fourth Crusade...

4) Shahdom, if you want to be technical. Although I'm not sure what date that was picked, it might have started as sultanate, gone to shahdom, and then (with Jalal ad-Din - pity he probably gets butterflied with your Extreme Butterflies idea - I don't know when he was born, but I suspect the 1190s) back to sultanate.

5) The Viking part is going to be hard. Colonizing North America is really difficult for a variety of reasons.

Possible, but keep it in mind.

6) This should be interesting.


I'm fairly confident in Byzantine knowledge a Persian enthusiast but far from expert, as well as having done some study of France in this era (up to the end of the Capets). Hope some of that can translate into useful ideas.

 

[Velkas]

Have you read the Chaos timeline? That might be inspiring, even if you only use it as a "This is fascinating. I never thought of doing something with this area."
I took a look at it and, yeah, definitely lots of inspiring material.

Um, what unified empire would that be? Because the Mongols sure as heck weren't in any meaningful sense.
Well, not unified than. But the Mongol domination of Central Asia did make the route between Europe and Asia much easier to traverse. (Ex. Marco Polo)

The Viking part is going to be hard. Colonizing North America is really difficult for a variety of reasons.
What are some of the reason, then, and how might it be possible to overcome them?

I'll look more into your thoughts on the situation in the Middle East tomorrow. Anything involving the Middle East would require quite a bit of simple research on my part. I know very little about any of the powers in that region at that time. But thanks a lot. If I have any questions on France, Persia, or the Byzantine Empire, I'll ask you.

 

[St. Just]

Scrap the Vikings. Quite frankly, they have no manpower whatsoever, no contact with Greenland (or even really Vinland) anymore, and have no way of sending what few people they have to go freeze in North American Winters.

The Little Ice Age hits around 1300- geology of that scale cannot be butterflied, and once that hits, Vinland is gone. Verkakte, bupkus, gone.

Their racial hostilities towards the Skraelings would doom them- I doubt they'd have a Squanto or similar Indian helping them out.

 

[Velkas]

Scrap the Vikings. Quite frankly, they have no manpower whatsoever, no contact with Greenland (or even really Vinland) anymore, and have no way of sending what few people they have to go freeze in North American Winters.

The Little Ice Age hits around 1300- geology of that scale cannot be butterflied, and once that hits, Vinland is gone. Verkakte, bupkus, gone.

Their racial hostilities towards the Skraelings would doom them- I doubt they'd have a Squanto or similar Indian helping them out.

Okay. But what is the earliest I can have the Americas discovered, and what country might be able to do it?

 

[bolhabela]

Estern and Central Europa will most definitly be more powerful. Hungary and Poland lost half of its population to the mongol attacks so we might never see the rise of the habsburgs and the polish and hungarian army's will last more against the turks also.

 

[kellineil]

If you want vinland to survive then have the Norse get on well with the native americans from the start. Then when the Vinland is cut off from Europe in the Little Ice Age you may well get a surviving Norse-Native American tribe survivng till contact with Europe is re-established

Other things you should consider keeping as OTL is any major Geological event. The exact times and dates of volcanic eruptions for instance can be changed but they will occur at approximately the same time (to within probably a year).

The Industrial Revolution analogue will probably start in a region with significant coal and iron deposits. (if you're not sure where these are just look at early industrial centres in OTL)

Unless balkanised or given significant european land borders any state occupying the island of Great Britain will become a major naval power. The island is just too strategically important for this not to happen, not to mention the excellent famrland and abundant resources.

European borders will in many cases be similar to OTL. Natural boundaries and all that

Just some thoughts

 

[Elfwine]

Well, not unified than. But the Mongol domination of Central Asia did make the route between Europe and Asia much easier to traverse. (Ex. Marco Polo)

I'm not sure if Marco Polo is really an example of it being easier. The Silk Road had been around for centuries.

What are some of the reason, then, and how might it be possible to overcome them?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=180065 This should help answer that.

 

[Umbral]

The Vikings at the time were producing a lot of surplus population, and was in regular contact with Greenland. It is the top of the medieval warm period, and the best opportunity to settle Vinland. What you need is some reason to direct viking population surplus there. Something to make Vinland seem more attractive than OTL.

Once you have a firm colony going, Greenlanders can migrate south as the climate worsens, adding a bit of numbers.

 

[Velkas]

Estern and Central Europa will most definitly be more powerful. Hungary and Poland lost half of its population to the mongol attacks so we might never see the rise of the habsburgs and the polish and hungarian army's will last more against the turks also.

Excellent. That should definitely be interesting.

Other things you should consider keeping as OTL is any major Geological event. The exact times and dates of volcanic eruptions for instance can be changed but they will occur at approximately the same time (to within probably a year).

The Industrial Revolution analogue will probably start in a region with significant coal and iron deposits. (if you're not sure where these are just look at early industrial centres in OTL)

Unless balkanised or given significant european land borders any state occupying the island of Great Britain will become a major naval power. The island is just too strategically important for this not to happen, not to mention the excellent famrland and abundant resources.

European borders will in many cases be similar to OTL. Natural boundaries and all that

Yeah, I'll keep those in mind.
But in terms of regions with large coal and iron deposits, does anyone know where they lie, other than the places where the Industrial Revolution developed in OTL? I like the idea of having other powers becoming more influential than in OTL.

I'm not sure if Marco Polo is really an example of it being easier. The Silk Road had been around for centuries.

Marco Polo was a 色目 (sèmù) working under the Yuan Emperor. The Silk Road had existed previously, but in OTL the Mongols domination of the entire length of the route led to increased trade and communication between Europe and Asia.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Mongolica)

As for the Vikings, I'm still mulling over what to do. While having a Viking colony in the Americas that gets cut off from Europe could be interesting, what I really want is to find a way to bring together Europe and the Americas some centuries earlier than in OTL. Other than the Vikings, what European powers would be likely to start establishing colonies in the Americas, and what's the earliest feasible time?

 

[Elfwine]

Marco Polo was a 色目 (sèmù) working under the Yuan Emperor. The Silk Road had existed previously, but in OTL the Mongols domination of the entire length of the route led to increased trade and communication between Europe and Asia.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Mongolica)

Pax Mongolica, when the Mongols are fighting amongst themselves, fighting rebels, fighting the invasion target of the day...

Really, more like the Mongols rearranged the political map, it was all nominally under the Great Khan, and people have preferred to take that seriously than look at the details.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

You might even have a surviving Kievan Rus', but where are they going to align themselves, that's another question.

 

[Velkas]

Pax Mongolica, when the Mongols are fighting amongst themselves, fighting rebels, fighting the invasion target of the day...

Really, more like the Mongols rearranged the political map, it was all nominally under the Great Khan, and people have preferred to take that seriously than look at the details.

It still facilitated increased trade and communication...

You might even have a surviving Kievan Rus', but where are they going to align themselves, that's another question.

Hmm... perhaps.

 

[Elfwine]

It still facilitated increased trade and communication...

I'm not convinced any of those were helped by going through the ravaged areas the Mongols ruled. The era in question is one where trade and looking outward (by Europe, which is the one borrowing stuff from elsewhere) was expanding anyway, and would have expanded anyway.

 

[Dr. No]

I'll scrap the part with Temujin because we've already had an epic timeline for several years about that and its author was even humble enough to ask us about versatile ramifications beforehand, especially such things as the spread of the Black Death without a Mongol Empire and many more other things. That's of course the Chaos TL.

The thing with the Norse is that their disengagement wasn't ad hoc, but thoroughly planned. And as others said, the Little Ice Age took its toll and can't be butterflied away without heavy anthropogenic global warming and we're nowhere near industrialization at that point.

Actually, you'd need a POD way before the 12th century. L'Anse aux Meadows on Newfoundland actually dates around 1000, so there were actually settlements out there, but they didn't grow for whatever reason. And while I wouldn't say that Greenland and Newfoundland where like punitive colonies akin to British Australia, remember that Erik the Red and his father were exiled for homicide from their Iceland and resp. Norwegian homelands. If you got to go with them, you hardly did it by choice, but because you had or saw no alternative to follow him. Leif Eriksson may not have been such a crook, but still continued a family tradition that is unthinkable without the blood on the family's hands. And as Vinland was settled shortly after Greenland, lacking speed wasn't an obstacle for your premise.

Seriously, if you want to have a sustainable Norse colonization of Vinland or North America in general, well, then you have to change the intrinsic motive of the Norsh. But the best attempt would be to spare the thread of late 10th century colonization from being cut. You'd have to give them a reason to stay.

 

[Elfwine]

What might be interesting is something where the Mongols are less successful than OTL, but still have a considerable impact - breaking up after Mongke, say.

I'm going with "after Ogedei" (as well as not grabbing Persia) for my timeline, for instance.

 

[kasumigenx]

I'll scrap the part with Temujin because we've already had an epic timeline for several years about that and its author was even humble enough to ask us about versatile ramifications beforehand, especially such things as the spread of the Black Death without a Mongol Empire and many more other things. That's of course the Chaos TL.

I also have an inactive tl like that where in the Gurps scenario of Eleanor and the Son of William Adelin married happens and Temujin is butterflied or is Female which I will resume once my two current timelines are finished.

 

[Velkas]

Well, I think the part about Temujin dying earlier is more important to my plans for this timeline than having the Vikings succeed with their American colonies, and it seems easier to manage. The Viking idea was only added latter, as an afterthought, so I could have further divergence from OTL. But it would be alright if the Americas were discovered by someone else later, perhaps sometime between 1300 and 1400. How feasible is this, and what countries might be able to do it?

Temujin dying earlier, though...I want to keep that. Just because it brings so many changes to all of Eurasia. And it would be interesting to see where these changes would lead to. I don't really want an earlier POD, either.

To better understand the effects the Mongols have had in OTL, I've begun Jack Weatherford's book Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World. I've also borrowed a book on the Mongol impact on Medieval Russian history from the library, as well as a book surveying the history of the Near East.

 

[Velkas]

I'm thinking of changing the events of the Fourth Crusade: either having the Crusade go to Egypt as planned, or having the Byzantines succeed in beating of the Crusaders. Are these feasible possibilities, and how might they alter things?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

I'm thinking of changing the events of the Fourth Crusade: either having the Crusade go to Egypt as planned, or having the Byzantines succeed in beating of the Crusaders. Are these feasible possibilities, and how might they alter things?

If Constantinople isn't captured the Balkans are changed. The Fourth Crusade dealt Rome a blow which it never fully recovered from.